July 18, 2015

At seven-panels over the WO main track, the $125.000 Duchess Stakes does not have the history that other stakes races in Canada have but nonetheless, gets a small field of four on Sunday including a few recent stakes winners, and some very well bred fillies. The distance should not be a factor and the class is certainly there so look for outside speed and inside closing ability, with the former getting the nod when the final furlong comes calling.

1-Mother Lode (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Alydar Stables)
Mother Lode rode a three-race winning streak going short into CD last time out and going a mile, found the pace to be slower than she was used to in a closing second-place finish and with the cutback to a sprint, should be a major factor to close from off the early fractions. Although she does not have the stakes experience of others in the field, her speed ratings suggest some talent and at a price, she might be able to get up over some of the others for a bigger than expected piece.

Analysis-Will be closing into what should be a good pace

Fair Odds-3/1

2-Protection (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

A winner of the Ballade going six-furlongs over this same course, Protection shipped to BEL for the Jersey Girl but was unable to move forward at any stage in a disappointing effort and facing the winner of that race, will need to show more to hit the top two in this spot. She certainly likes the track and might be able to get a clear early lead but if she gets into a speed duel, it might use up more speed than she wants and that will cost her at this tricky distance.

Analysis-Has to show more late pace than her last start

Fair Odds-5/1

3-Pragmatic (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Eastern Equine)

Pragmatic was finally able to break her N1X allowance condition at PRX last time out in a gutsy dead-heat win and the move back to a sprint, coupled with some sharp speed workouts, could see her have the best chance to run down the outside speed in the late stages. The fear is that she mightT make a premature move like she did in the Grade II Matron as a juvenile, before getting run down in the final stages, and although she is win-shy, she certainly had the talent like many to contend for the win.

Analysis-Carries more weight than she is used to and that might hurt

Fair Odds-4/1

4-Marshed (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

A close second to the powerful Sirens Blaring in the Fantasy at OP, and a winner of the Jersey Girl at BEL two back, Marshed should have things her own way in a very reachable renewal of the Duchess and with outside speed, controls her own destiny from the onset. A sloppy track in the Grade I Mother Goose ruined her chances of getting the early lead and with a fast main track here, she should be able to get out quick, set a modest pace and have plenty left for another top notch score.

Analysis-Outside speed and back class should make her the winner

Fair Odds-2/1

Overall

Marshed ships up from BEL to contest the Duchess Stakes at WO and despite huge odds last time out, she should be able to negotiate both the distance and the class and could be a major wire-to-wire threat come Sunday. Mother Lode cuts back to a better distance and will get a golden inside run so look for her to finish second while Pragmatic was sharp last time but might be at the mercy of the speed from off the pace.

Prediction

Win-Marshed (2/1)

Place-Mother Lode (3/1)

Show-Pragmatic (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES