July 27, 2015
Named for a multiple champion, Classic winner, Horse Of The Year and Hall of Fame entrant, the Grade I Sword Dancer is the type of race that every horse would love on their resume and as such, has drawn another huge field of 11 for its annual running at part of the Travers undercard at SAR on Saturday afternoon. Since its inception in 1975, and its move to 12-furlongs in 1980, it has routinely attracted the best turf marathoners in North America and abroad and the list of winners is outstanding, from John Henry to Majesty’s Prince to Threatrical and El Senor, and onto Fraise, Awad, With Anticipation, Better Talk Now, Point Of Entry and Main Sequence, all superstars to used this event as a stepping stone to big efforts in the Grade I BC Turf.
This event has also been a stepping stone to huge things for its HRP winners, including multiple Grade I winner Royal Randwick, BC Mile and Donn Handicap winner Jagged Account, BC Turf winner Siberian Rhythm, Pacific Classic winner Basic Force and impressive winner Bold Pretender, who comes back this year to defend his title against a hope of challengers. But in order to become the first back-to-back winner of this now $1000.000 event, he will have to overcome a multitude of Grade I winners and some very up-and-coming three-year-olds who will all be looking for a guaranteed spot in the most important turf race of the year.
1-All Together (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Almost perfectly handled since his debut late in his juvenile season, All Together has put it all together as of late with a solid second behind a track-record setting winner that should serve as a big confidence builder against this much tougher field. A seven-furlong workout at PRX was blistering and he should love the added couple of furlongs, making him one of the better prospects to really step up in a field that lacks the true superstar we all want to see.
Analysis-Seems to have all the right tools to prove effective
Fair Odds-5/1
2-War Scent (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
War Scent is a Grade II winner over both the dirt and the turf but is probably better suited to the main track and in his return to the turf, will probably find this field too daunting based on his current performances. Speed ratings have failed to reach that monster 101-mark he set in the Nijinsky last July and a change in tactics recently to sit off the pace, rather than set it, has made him vulnerable to speed efforts that could hinder his chances of closing, especially from an inside stall.
Analysis-Could get boxed in at a crucial moment
Fair Odds-12/1
3-Joie de Bleu (Four-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Riggins Racing)
Joie de Bleu has never raced on the grass and had three published workouts over the surface in his career so to think that he can step up from a series of allowance efforts on the main track to this prestigious Grade I on turf is a tough ask for any horse, even a $600.000 earner. He does not fit with this group on paper and will be hard pressed to get the distance; it looks like a very tough spot and he will most likely be one of the longest shots on the board come Saturday.
Analysis-Untested, plain and simple
Fair Odds-50/1
4-Ashkalani (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Dandy Dan Stables)
Ashkalani has rarely disappointed on the grass with eight wins in 16 career starts, and nearly $3500.000 in earnings, and on Saturday, he will try to add to that bankroll with a huge win in the Sword Dancer after failing to menace from off the pace in the Grade I United Nations. While the Grade I AP Million was a popular target for those coming out of that race, this four-year-old has awaited a return to SAR, where he took the Saranac last year, and if he runs back to any of his triple-digit speed ratings, he will most assuredly be the one to beat.
Analysis-The class and power of the Sword Dancer field
Fair Odds-2/1
5-Tundra Kenny (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Australia Wide)
It has taken absolutely no time for Australia Wide to find their groove again at HRP and with Tundra Kenny, you get a $275.000 purchase who now has two straight wins to his credit, including a rousing score over the DMR turf, and looks to continue that improvement in a race that has been good to three-year-olds over the years. While his speed ratings are not on par with others and he might be finding his own, workouts are solid enough to take him at a price, with distance being the only question mark in a race where anything can and probably will happen.
Analysis-Have to respect the owner entering him in this race
Fair Odds-8/1
6-Copper Clappers (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Razorback Racing)
Copper Clappers loves to go long on the turf and while he might not win very often, he seems to always be in the thick of things at the wire and that should be the case again Saturday, as he hopes to find the return to 1 ½ miles to his liking. A winner of the Grade III Louisville Handicap at CD, he gets Lasix once again after falling short in the United Nations and that simple change might be enough to get him into a top three placing, with eyes on more long races down the line.
Analysis-Gets Lasix again and should love the distance
Fair Odds-5/1
7-Celtic Tremor (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Lemax Farms)
Celtic Tremor does not like to win races and with only one victory in his last 13 starts, he ranks as an outsider in the Sword Dancer field, even with a series of on-the-board finishes to his credit. Minor stakes company going one-mile does not translate well to Grade I competition going four-furlongs longer and unless he learns to close like a freight train, he will be struggling to get to the wire when others are just getting their engines revved.
Analysis-Lacks the winning motivation of others
Fair Odds-30/1
8-Bold Pretender (Seven-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-RNP Stables)
When Bold Pretender upset the Sword Dancer last year, he was coming off a career-best effort in the Oceanport and used that as a springboard to a big victory; this year, he comes off a dismal effort in the Read Stakes over a soft DMR turf and needs much more than he has shown to repeat. Already nine starts into a grueling campaign, the efforts he has put forth have been taxing and while he should love a firmer turf, he still has a lot of improving to do if he hopes to win this ultra tough renewal.
Analysis-Not coming into 2015 like he did going into 2014
Fair Odds-6/1
9-Danzing By The Bay (Five-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Wolfs Den)
Bounced back and forth between owners for low prices, Danzing By The Bay came up with a big effort winning the Lure Stakes last time out but while that might have been a career topping effort, it was not as good as others have put forth in this field and he still needs improvement to win in this spot. He certainly knows how to win on the grass and his one-mile workouts are solid enough but this is a difficult group and he will need to get involved from his outside stall if he hopes to have enough left in the tank to run down the leaders late.
Analysis-Will have to close from his outside post
Fair Odds-12/1
10-Candy Cain N Able (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Deja Vu Farm)
Grade II Pan American winner Candy Cain N Able gets the same post he drew in the United Nations but that race saw him make a premature move that jockey R A Baze will not make again and if he can control his fractions, he has as much talent as any to win this classic event. He has kept his races to the East Coast and that continues here and with an improving race pattern, he should make another good account of himself for a barn looking for their first Grade I victory.
Analysis-Outside post will help him ration his early speed
Fair Odds-4/1
11-Breiterate (Five-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
Breiterate finally got another victory on the turf with his shocking score in the Grade I Manhattan Handicap two starts back but he returned to his off-the-board ways in the Read and will have to prove that he can handle the firm turf once again before getting any sort of backing from this handicapper. He simply has not been good enough to win against the best of his division and while he should enjoy an outside run from the farthest gate, it has never been enough to get him to the winner’s circle and at a short price, he will be a tough prospect to back with any certainty.
Analysis-Hit and miss type has more misses lately
Fair Odds-10/1
Overall
On class alone, Ashkalani looms large in the Grade I Sword Dancer and despite an off-the-board finish in the United Nations, he still ranks as the one to beat for me at a 1 ½ mile distance that proves his worth in BC Turf last season. Candy Cain N Able was excellent in the United Nations and should get another good outside run but moving too soon could be his undoing if the favourite closes as expected, while All Together is the type of horse who could move up smartly with the break in weights and could surprise for top connections who have won this race before with an up-and-coming type.
Prediction
Win-Ashkalani (2/1)
Place-Candy Cain N Able (4/1)
Show-All Together (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I
