September 4, 2015
An early season test for the juvenile fillies, the Grade I DMR Debutante is a crucial stop on the road to the BC Juvenile Fillies and as such, has had many winners prove their worth in future races at this highest level. American Idol was the first big star, taking the 2005 edition en route to more than $1200.000 in earnings, while Told You So sprung a 15-1 upset in 2008 as one of three Grade I wins that earned her a year-end championship. Roundheel came within a head of winning the Juvenile Fillies in 2009 but still used this race as a stepping stone to earnings of nearly $2000.000 and in 2013, Short Dog became the first and only Debutante winner to score the big race as part of what has already been a near $2500.000 career. This year, a field of seven has been assembled including a few stakes winners and at seven-furlongs, there will actually be a few cutting back in distance in hopes of getting enough of a late run to secure the biggest win of their young career.
1-Drill (Two-year-old gray filly / Owner-Bigking)
Most handicappers are still not sure what happened on August 6 to prompt sub-45 second fractions but all that matters is that Drill was the beneficiary of that wicked pace and it led to a maiden breaking score that could prove important here in the Debutante. The speed rating, and the time, was quite slow given the class and she will need to close more ground against slower fractions if she hopes to build on a budding career for high-profile stallion Commanding.
Analysis-Capitalized last time but needs more
Fair Odds-6/1
2-Spider (Two-year-old gray filly / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
Spider removed Bute for her second career start and came away with a maiden win going six-furlongs over this same course and with a solid 88-speed rating, cannot be overlooked as a potential closer at this seven-furlong distance. Sire Brilliantly Awkward already has two juvenile stakes winners this year and if that recent workout over the turf is any indication, this filly could easily become the third in what might be a nice set-up for some bigger races down the line.
Analysis-Pedigree suggests that she will like going longer
Fair Odds-3/1
3-Minda (Two-year-old gray filly / Owner-Royalty Racing)
Two state-bred stakes wins prompted owner Royalty Racing to move Minda into open company and while she was a good third in optional claiming company, it was a regression that does not bode well for her chances here and she will need to find enough late pace to run down the speed. She gets her original jockey back in the saddle and certainly knows how to close but the lack of inside speed will leave her vulnerable and unless she gets the right set-up, she might not be as quick as others.
Analysis-Good in state-bred company but open level might be tough
Fair Odds-8/1
4-Technomin (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-The Sidley Stud)
Another state-bred stakes winner who moved into open company last time out, Technomin closed belatedly for third in the Grade II Sorrento going slightly shorter and with the home court advantage, will be one of the choices to take down her second stakes score. Her last out speed rating is the best in the field but she will be another dependent on an early pace and while she might be the best closer in the field, she needs to prove that against outside speed that could get away from her.
Analysis-Did well over this track last time and should get another good trip
Fair Odds-5/2
5-Plucky Elmo (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)
Three straight starts at WO led to two victories for Plucky Elmo including a sharp score in the Nandi and now, she gets to stretch her legs over a new track and will be one of the early leaders, which is a good position given the lack of speed. She just missed in open company on debut but gets a regular rider in the saddle and needs only to run back to her speedy workouts to get the job done at this one-turn distance.
Analysis-Will be close to the pace in the final furlong
Fair Odds-2/1
6-The Lady Bandit (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Allinthegate)
The Lady Bandit stepped up to stakes company in the Angie C at EMD but was unable to hold on after setting decent fractions and this time around, she is asked to go longer with more speed and will hope to be the only one setting the early fractions. If she can slow things down, she might have enough left in the tank but that is a big question mark and not one that this handicapper is willing to answer in a crucial Grade I event.
Analysis-Lacked late speed last time and now needs even more
Fair Odds-10/1
7-Furious Missle (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Downwind Stables)
Furious Missle did extremely well with two-year-olds last season but Furious Missle showed little in the Angie C and despite a clear path this time with the outside stall, looks to be overmatched at this level and at this distance. One-mile workouts have been good but this seven-furlong trip is tricky and speed ratings are below others in the field, making her a longshot prospect against proven closers to her inside.
Analysis-Outside draw was not good in stakes company last time
Fair Odds-20/1
Overall
There is a distinct lack of early speed in the Grade I DMR Debutante and while that might play to the early leaders, Plucky Elmo looks to be in the best position to capitalize and will be the choice for this handicapper given her impressive wins at WO. Technomin closed sharply in the Sorrento and is already a proven winner so she gets my second choice while Spider has the pedigree to close off a maiden score and would not be an surprise for top connections.
Prediction
Win-Plucky Elmo (2/1)
Place-Technomin (5/2)
Show-Spider (3/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I
