September 12, 2015
As a BC Win And You’re In race, the Grade II Canadian Stakes usually attracts some very good fillies and mares to the WO turf and on Sunday afternoon, a big field of 11 is signed on for a $300.000 event that has been won by some very good runners in the past. Speed Talker won the 2008 edition for the aptly named Canadian Racing as part of a near $2,600.000 career, Valibert took it in 2010 as one of her 14 Graded Stakes wins, Fine Prophecy set the stakes record one year later before taking the Grade I EP Taylor and One Big Mess used her win 2013 to guarantee her entry in the F&M Turf, and subsequently won it at 10-1. This year, the defending champion is not back to try for a repeat but Grade I winners are abundant nonetheless and it will come down to who gets the trip, and who finds the room, at the end of a tough nine-furlongs.
1-Wire Z Wire (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Diablo Diablo)
With two wins from 11 career starts, and coming off a third in the tough Lake Placid after setting the pace, Wire Z Wire will try to go one step further and lead wire-to-wire, as her name suggests, from the inside post in the Canadian. Distance will be a question mark as she tries to for her second win on the grass and her best bet might be a come from behind approach, like she used in the Appalachian at KEE earlier this year.
Analysis-Might be caught trying to go all the way
Fair Odds-12/1
2-Caricature In Red (Four-year-old gray filly / Owner-Nakamura Stables)
Caricature In Red has been favoured in four of her five starts this year and while she has won two of them, she has lost some tough races at this level and will need to improve after tiring badly as the choice last time out at SAR. Granted, that was a very tough allowance event but her speed ratings in response have been declining and it will take a big reversal of form to her to hit the board in this bulky field.
Analysis-Good filly seems to be stalling as of late
Fair Odds-15/1
3-Tidal Wave (Five-year-old bay mare / Owner-Paradise Stable)
Tidal Wave has been riding high as of late with four straight wins including three big ones in California but the question to be answered is how she will handle the return to WO, where she set the pace but faded badly in the Canadian last year. She does seem to be a different mare at the age of five but her speed ratings are not as high as previous years and her front running style could prove taxing if she is battled up front and cannot sprint in the crucial final furlong.
Analysis-Has all the talent to win but needs things alone up front
Fair Odds-5/1
4-Risen Queen (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Risen Queen always seems to run well in these types of races but never seems to win many of them and although she was excellent in the RGD at DEL, she could not keep up her speed in the much tougher Beverly D and will use a cutback in distance as a possible turning point. She might be better suited to a much longer race but still be stalking intently nonetheless and recent workouts suggest that the fitness will be there for a filly making her eighth straight start at a new track.
Analysis-Well traveled filly will hope for a fast pace up front
Fair Odds-8/1
5-Lightem Up Roxie (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mo Mentum Farms)
Claimed for $62.500 and immediately a stakes winner for her connections, Lightem Up Roxie makes her turf debut in the Canadian and from a family that has never won on the lawn, she will be up against it with way too many questions to be answered. She closed for third in the ONT Matron and does show a bunch of wins but going only a turf workouts is a tall task and on paper, she needs at least one start on the grass to make any kind of impression to me.
Analysis-Turf debut makes her a longshot
Fair Odds-25/1
6-Grand Mystique (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Triple T Racing)
Grand Mystique became a stakes winner last time out in the Blue Handicap at DMR and with two wins and two seconds in her last four starts, seems to be coming into the Canadian on a high note, even if it has been against easier rivals. Bullet workouts over the WO turf show promise, her speed ratings seem to be improving and she is adept at closing into the pace, which should be quick to her inside, so look for her to make a late run down the long WO turf and outrun her odds, even if it is not to victory.
Analysis-Stakes winner seems to be entering in her best form
Fair Odds-8/1
7-Rip Snortin (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aer Stables)
Rip Snortin earned a massive speed rating against two rivals in the Grade III Penny Memorial Handicap over a yielding PRX turf but that form has not translated well and after finishing with an even fifth in the Lake Placid, she will be hoping to step up once again and make a name for herself in this division. The return of her stakes winning jockey will help, as will a bullet workout at SAR, but that last race really was a big bounce and the hope is that she can find that quick late kick over a firm ground, with only a small potential for showers in the forecast.
Analysis-Might enjoy a bit of give to the ground
Fair Odds-10/1
8-Sweet Red (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
Five for nine on the grass, and with three straight wins including a score over the WO turf in the Wonder Where, Sweet Red has all the makings of a very good filly and will appreciate staying on the same surface, with a chance to run up her streak to four against tougher opponents. She was excellent in a wire-to-wire score at LS but even better last time out from well off the early pace and that versatility will prove very valuable, with her only knock being the shipping back and forth to DMR for workouts by her connections.
Analysis-DMR for workouts, WO for races, that is an odd combo
Fair Odds-5/1
9-Condottieris Fox (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)
On the surface, five wins in a row should make Condottieris Fox a big contender in the Canadian but all of those races have been at 5- or 5.5-furlongs and the stretch out in distance for her blazing speed will be the ultimate test. Speed ratings are also well below the benchmark for this race and she has been facing small fields the entire way so take her odds with a grain of salt and hope that she can ration her speed for that extra three-furlongs, with eyes of a return to sprinting if she cannot.
Analysis-Sprinter has her work cut out for her going long
Fair Odds-12/1
10-Know How Causeway (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Chili King Stables)
Grade I winner Know How Causeway is certainly the class of the Canadian field, especially off a three-year-old campaign that saw her win five races and more than $1500.000 in purses, but this year has not been nearly as productive and she will have to prove to many that she is the same filly she was last year. She was okay in the Royal Heroine but should have been much better against state-bred rivals in the Solana Beach in her last start and the fear is that she is past her prime, making her an underlay in this tough field.
Analysis-Will be rocketing to command and an outside stall will not help
Fair Odds-6/1
11-Its Taco Time (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Sanny Village)
An upset winner of the Grade I Spinster last year, Its Taco Time is winless in five starts since and makes her grass debut in the Canadian; factors that cannot be overlooked and ones that will probably make her one of the longer shots on the board. She closed a huge odds to finish fourth in the Princess Rooney, and was fourth at 100-1 before that, and while her speed ratings are decent, she shows no turf workouts and would be a longshot to win this against top level turf fillies and mares.
Analysis-No turf experience and no recent form spells trouble
Fair Odds-15/1
Overall
There really are a lot of questions to be answered in the Grade II Canadian Stakes on Sunday, not the least of which is whether three-year-old Sweet Red will be able to step up off a classic win in the Wonder Where and prove best against open company. While she gets a second place vote from this handicapper, the role of winner has to go to three-time Graded Stakes winner Tidal Wave, riding a huge streak all the way from DMR, with the three-place spot going to Grade I winner and top class filly Know How Causeway, who could easily regain her form and score another top class finish.
Prediction
Win-Tidal Wave (5/1)
Place-Sweet Red (5/1)
Show-Know How Causeway (6/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
