The Frizette (Grade 1) (BC)- $400.000 Purse
BEL- For Filles Two Years Old
One Mile on the Dirt
October 3, 2015
Some pieces have fallen into place now for the 2015 BC Juvenile Fillies. Three have already punched their ticket and will be at KEE on Halloween. The Frizette will send another one to the BC with an official qualification spot, and down at KEE another spot will be awarded Saturday to the Alcibiades winner. Many in today’s field will need the auto spot in order to find their way into the BC, while a filly like Notarized Kate, who is already at the top of the non-automatic bid point chart, probably just needs to turn in a decent performance. Others may be hoping for a Notarized Kate win here, to help their own chances. Last week, when we look at the Chandelier Stakes, it was noted that no winner of that stake has ever finished in the top three in the Juvenile Fillies, let alone win the race. The history of Frizette winners in the BC is not quite is bleak, but still no Frizette winner has won the Juvenile Fillies, either. Two winners have been second on racing’s biggest day: Road to Nowhere (2003) and Roundheel (2010). Trainer-wise, Riggins Racing and Downwind Stables share the top of the stake leaderboard with two wins apiece, but neither have an entry in this race. Both of Riggins’ victories have been shared wins, taking both the 2010 and 2011 races as part of dead heats in each. A dead heat is not what trainers who don’t have a runner here to happen in this race and create two automatic bids from it. There are eleven going to the gate, let’s meet them!
#1- Patisserie (Blushing Meadows, ridden by J R Leparoux)- In her fifth try, she finally broke her maiden over closing weekend at SAR in early September. Now, she will have a chance to take her career to the next level, which she should be able to do. Prior to finally winning, she had three second place finishes, all while competing at the highest of levels. Her race times and SRF figures that she has recorded have been impressive. Patisserie has shown herself to be the type of horse that knows how to pick up her game on the race track as well, so if she can follow up her mile work time at LA, then she will be a force to be reckoned with here. She’s conformed to get the distance, and is part of the Charley Farley bloodline.
#2- Lea (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J J Castellano)- This Quick Code filly has a couple of Juvenile Fillies points under her belt, but will need to add to them in order to get into the field. Those points came when she finished third over a muddy Saratoga track in the Grade 2 Adirondack in August. Three weeks ago, she went long for the first time in the Pochonatas, another Grade 2, and would be fourth, missing by a length. Lea will meet a couple in here that she has seen before, like Notarized Kate and Jewel in the Sand, and she has shown she can run with them, but will have to turn the tables on each here.
#3- Danzing Farley (Australia Wide, ridden by F Pennington)- One large private sales price, two races, two wins. So far this filly who has great pedigree, more then just Charley Farley in her blood, has done everything right. Her debut at TUP resulted in a win, and was impressive enough for Australia Wide to purchase her from $225.000 from Pristine Stables (aka as the trainer of Notarized Kate in this field). The new trainer was patient with his April purchase, and waited until August to put her back on the track, and once there she defeated a NY-bred allowance field at SAR. I’m not quite sure if she will be fast enough at a mile to get in the money against the quality of opposition she meets today but you can never count out this trainer.
#4- Stolen Secret (Alydar Stables, ridden by E J Zayas)- The success that this filly has had may be a little bittersweet for her trainer. Stolen Secret has been very impressive early in her career, winning four of five races, including races that go just as high a purse as the Graded Stakes some of the others have run in. Stolen Secret was victorious in the FL Sire Stakes- Vixen and its $200.000 purse in August, then the FL Sire Stakes- Susan in September for $300.000. Those wins were at six and seven furlongs, respectively. Unfortunately, there are no BC points in those wins, so she might be under the radar a bit. Here, she will get her chance, and given that she’s come from behind to win those last two races, there’s a positive vibe in play about her ability to get that eighth furlong. She really needs this race. I like her here.
#5- Downtheredcarpet (Barcelona Farms, ridden by R Bejarano)- Much of what was said about Stolen Secret can also apply to Downtheredcarpet. This filly has been successful, but it is success that has not resulted in BC Points, and it might be now or never if she wants a chance to get in. While Stolen Secret was winning her statebred stakes in Florida, Downtheredcarpet was winning them in New York. Those wins came in the $125.000 Lynbrook and the $200.000 Seeking the Ante. If I had to choose between Stolen Secret and Downtheredcarpet, I am a little more impressed with the former, but both of these two need to get points in the Frizette.
#6- Notarized Kate (Pristine Stables, ridden by J Talamo)- All she really needs to do in the Frizette is come of the race healthy as she currently leads the BC Juvenile Fillies point standings with 14. This doesn’t mean she is just going to show up and she will be one of the ones to beat here. She’s turned out pretty well for a $100.000 purchase as an unraced filly, and has three wins and two seconds in her five career starts. Of the wins, one came in the muddy G2 Adirondack and the seconds came in the muddy G3 Schuylerville, and the G1 Spinaway, all at SAR. With rain in the forecast again, she’s almost as used to being on an off track as she is a fast track. Notarized Kate comes into the race working very well, and her SRF’s are impressive for such a young horse.
#7- Jewel In The Sand (Mb Stables, ridden by R J Albarado)- This filly is currently 14th on the Juvenile Fillies list, so she either needs to pick up a few more points in this race, or have a lot of things go her way in other races. Jewel In The Sand has only raced twice in her career, and the Copper Bottom filly still has never been to the winners circle, with second place finishes in both of her starts thus far. The points came from her effort in the G2 Pocahontas where she was beaten only by Viking Rush, who used the win to catapult herself into the BC. There’s no time for maiden races now, and Jewel in the Sand looks to have the ability to win the race, but I have to lean towards though who have won bigger races over her.
#8- Farsha (Waldo, ridden by K J Desormeaux)- Like Jewel In The Sand, Farsha has also never won a race, but that is where the similarities probably end. Farsha has no BC points, and only has a second place performance in a tough maiden race to show for it. In that, she was beaten by just .01 seconds. The horse that beat her? Patisserie, who she meets again here. That puts things in an interesting perspective then, but it has to be noted that Farsha was caught as the frontrunner in that race, which was two furlongs shorter. While you can be confident that Patisserie will get the distance at a high level, can Farsha? The last mile work was at the end of July, so bettor beware, but it does not lead to optimism here. Of course, that is a work that came before she made her debut as well. Hopefully, Waldo has better recent farm works at a longer distance for his filly.
#9- Plucky Elmo (Hawaiian Shirt Guy, ridden by G L Olguin)- This filly by Plucky Mach ran quite well last month in the G1 DMR Debutante, finishing second to Drill. That performance puts her 6th overall on the BC Juvenile Fillies points list, and in a position where she might just have enough to get in regardless of what she does here, but it would be way too close for comfort, and Hawaiian Shirt Guy would be tickled to death with a good race by Plucky Elmo. Her conformation shows that she should like adding distance, and her SRF figure shows a lot of potential. Still, this is the toughest field she has been in so far, but it is also a field she can handle if she at her best. She will be among the favorites here.
#10- Dirty Deeds (Aer Stables, ridden by R J Alvarado Jr)- A very fast work at CD on the 20th of September will catch one’s attention right away. It is the quickest that any of these fillies have worked at a mile, but Dirty Deeds doesn’t have the same kind of resume in regards to her race performance. She has been on the track twice thus far, winning her maiden in her last race, including a win over Patisserie in August. If she did it before, she can do it again, and based on her work we know she can get the distance. It’s not easy to pick her over the others in this field who have proven themselves a little better, but Dirty Deeds warrants much consideration.
#11- Effortless Admiral (Ekli Stables, ridden by J L Ortiz)- This filly by Star Admiral has won two of her three career races, once of which came at a mile at BEL just a couple weeks ago. It didn’t look like she was challenged much in that race, opening up a big lead then holding on in a four horse field. The winning time was good, but something in which others in this field are also capable of. Effortless Admiral has a lot of potential, and if she is going to get in the BC, there is no tomorrow for her. Having the outside post won’t make it any easier, but Wicked Heat took the Chandelier last week while wearing this same numbered saddlecloth, so anything is possible!
Prediction: 4-6-1-9
Categories: Grade I
