September 30, 2015

The biggest race of a very big KEE meeting is the Grade I Shadwell Turf Mile and as expected, with $1,000.000 in prize money and a guaranteed spot in the lucrative BC Mile up for grabs, a overflow field of 14 has been signed on to battle over the Kentucky bluegrass. Won in its early years by the likes of Favourite Trick and the ill-fated Landseer, four of its last five winners have been multiple Eclipse award winners Gio Ponti and Wise Dan, and for that reason, it has taken on added significant as a key prep for horses over the surface.

HRP has also seen its fair share of top-class victors, with 2005 champion Dogma taking the victory in only his third career start but as one of his 11 Grade I scores in his $6,500.000 career. Xray Eyes became a future BC Turf winner but not before scoring in 2006 in his debut for owner Australia Wide, while Wind Winder used a win one year later to add to his eventual $3,800.000 in receipts. A Little Oblivion already had two Grade I wins over the KEE turf and a BC F&M Turf championship to her credit when she dead-heated for victory in 2012 while last year, it was Irish Flu who proved best in a class field but who will not be back to defend after finishing off-the-board in the recent WO Mile instead. In his place stand six sophomores and eight older runners, but only one past the $1,000.000 in lifetime earnings and none with a Grade I victory, and that means that someone will earn their first top class score and the chance to compete against the best of their division for a massive $2000.000 prize.

1-Tiberius Claudius (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)

Tiberius Claudius is a Grade II winner over both the dirt and the turf and coming off a fifth place finish against a tough field in the Play The King, he gets back to a one-mile distance and could be a factor if he can get to the early lead. He has been very close to numerous victories this season, having only been beaten by a length at most all season, and coming in fresh with only four starts could be the difference against horses who have already had long and exhausting campaigns.

Analysis-Comes in fresh and likes the distance

Fair Odds-5/1

2-Iron Mann (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Aer Stables)

Iron Mann moved up off a solid second in the Fourstardave at SAR to test the WO Mile but the firm turf did not allow for his usual closing kick and while that was a very good attempt at this level, he needs to show more to hit the board and faces another full field in his way. A blistering workout at CD should have him ready for another big effort and any sort of race will help his chances so look for a big effort over a soft ground, and a decent one if the turf comes up firm.

Analysis-Success depends on the track

Fair Odds-8/1

3-Lincoln (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Serenity Stables)

Grade I winner Lincoln failed to hold his own in both the WV Derby and the Super Derby going nine-furlongs and while he cuts back a furlong to a distance that is better suited to him, he tries the turf for the first time and that is the tough part in backing him. He also has no recent workouts on the grass but does show turf breeding back to his granddam and if that holds true, he might be able to close for a minor piece.

Analysis-Would be backing him on pedigree alone

Fair Odds-20/1

4-Mazula Ruler (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Another with limited turf experience, Mazula Ruler only has two starts on grass with one runner-up finish and as a one-time winner this season, going short on the dirt back in May, this looks to be a massive step-up with little chance for success. He was dismal at PRX last time out and his placing and speed rating reflect that and unless he really steps up on the turf, he will be running from the back of the pack the entire way.

Analysis-Last effort makes him a huge longshot

Fair Odds-40/1

5-Make Change (Six-year-old black gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Make Change was very good on the turf in 2013 and 2014 but after winning his seasonal debut at GP, he has faded to the realm of an afterthought and while he has made some gains lately, he still looks to be below the best of the tops in this field and will have to progress further to win. He will be nowhere near the early lead and that was good enough for a fourth in this race last year, with a career-best 101-speed rating and in this field, a race like that might be good enough to at least hit the board.

Analysis-Did well in this race last year and could be charging late

Fair Odds-10/1

6-Mojoboa (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Ekli Stable)

The major difference between Mojoboa and others in the Turf Mile field is that this colt actually knows how to win, taking four of seven this season including a pair of seven-furlong stakes events, and coming off a charging fourth in the Grade I Kings Bishop, he should appreciate that added furlong for his closing kick. Another who will be sitting near the back of the pack, he does not show any major turf pedigree and that could be cause for concern but as a three-year-old with good form, he has as much as any to hit the board.

Analysis-Stakes winner at least has a decent resume this year

Fair Odds-10/1

7-Hold The Mach (Five-year-old black gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

Multiple Graded Stakes winner Hold The Mach has scored both of his big wins this year at outrageous odds but after failing to come through as the choice in the Highlander at WO in his last, one has to think that he is better suited to playing the role of spoiler. The turf has definitely been kind to him over the past year but he has shown little over a soft turf and if the rains come on Saturday, it will not be to his benefit and the hope is that he can make another good showing of himself, especially for a $10.000 claim.

Analysis-Has risen higher than most would have expected

Fair Odds-8/1

8-Finding Faith (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Emerald Racing Inc)

Since being taken for a simple $20.000 at MTH three starts back, Finding Faith has racked up a trio of high profile wins including the California Dreamin Handicap and the Grade II DMR Mile and now, looks poised to strive for his biggest prize to date and a guaranteed spot in the BC Mile. His off-the-pace running style should be well suited from his middle post and he loves the turf but if the ground is anything less than firm, it might be a disadvantage so look for the conditions as the deciding factor on whether to back him or not.

Analysis-Turf condition will dictate his chances

Fair Odds-5/1

9-March Madness (Five-year-old bay horse / Owner-La Rosa Stables)

Owner La Rosa Stables does not have a lot of runners in their barn but March Madness has to be ranked as their star and with a third in the 2013 BC Mile, and more than $1000.000 in earnings, he is the class of the field and looked amazing winning the Cliffhanger at MTH last time out. KEE will be a new test for him but he clearly fits with this class and has posted some solid speed ratings in the past; all factors, coupled with that huge win last time out, which might make him the favourite in what could be the final few races of his career.

Analysis-Lightly campaigned and that freshness could be key

Fair Odds-4/1

10-Ponder (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Chili King Stables)

A Grade III winner at SAR this Summer but only fifth against top foes in the Saranac, Ponder is an interesting gelding off the cutback to a one-mile distance and should be well placed on the outside with a clear view of the leaders down the backstretch. Whether he is the best sophomore in the field is still in question but he has earned all of his money on the grass and shows good workouts at WO, giving him at least a minor shot at a prize in this large field.

Analysis-Probably not Grade I caliber yet but worth at least a look

Fair Odds-10/1

11-Dogs Infowarrior (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Grimley)

Dogs Infowarrior has only had minor success going marathon distances in the past but this one-mile trip has served him well and coming off a big score in the Grade II Baruch at SAR, he has to be looked upon as the type of colt who can close with aplomb late with a chance to earn a big paycheck. His speed ratings have been consistent and he has been facing some solid rivals all season long, which should strengthen his resolve at this level, and with the turf in his corner, he might be a spoiler with visions on a much bigger prize in a few weeks.

Analysis-Has come through on turf and looks solidly placed

Fair Odds-6/1

12-Two Smoking Barrels (Four-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Cajun Stables)

It will be one year to the day since Two Smoking Barrels last tasted victory and while this year has been good, with three seconds and three thirds in seven starts, that big effort has yet to come and from an outside post, it will be tough to see him getting enough room early to make any headway late. He seems to just miss in some very fast races and maybe the recent gelding will help but unless he has found another late gear, he will be charging late and ultimately coming up just that little bit short.

Analysis-Unable to make up enough in the final furlong this year

Fair Odds-12/1

13-Swamp Fox-SCRATCHED

14-A Chrystal Brooklyn (Six-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Aer Stables)

A Chrystal Brooklyn moves in one spot with the scratching of Swamp Fox but the Grade III winner has found tougher company in his last two a little too taxing and he faces some tough runners here once again, including the horse who beat him at DMR last time. Speed ratings have been declining and he has not been able to press forward enough in the late stages of his races; couple that with a wide gate and you have a gelding at the mercy of what should be a modest pace at best.

Analysis-Needs to find more down the lane

Fair Odds-20/1

15-American Horror (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

American Horror draws in off a second in allowance company ay SAR and while that race was very fast, everything at SAR this Summer was fast and his speed rating reflects his status as one of the outsiders. He will not get any help from the farthest stall at KEE and will have to put himself into the race early and if he uses up too much speed, it will be difficult for him to remain in contention when the big closers come charging.

Analysis-Draws in but needs to save energy to prove effective

Fair Odds-25/1

Overall

For this handicapper, the old veteran will hope to best the young guns in the Grade I Shadwell Turf Mile at KEE on Saturday and in March Madness, you have a recent blowout winner against easier who knows how to handle this level and loves the distance. Tiberius Claudius is interesting from the rail as a Grade II winning miler who needs to find room late while Finding Faith rides a big winning streak in since being claimed, and would not be a surprise to end up with a big win and the role of favourite for the BC Mile.

Prediction

Win-March Madness (4/1)

Place-Tiberius Claudius (5/1)

Show-Finding Faith (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES