October 9, 2015
The Zuma Beach Stakes is interestingly placed in the racing calendar at SA, not really as a prep for the BC Juvenile Turf but more so for those who are trying to gain some stakes experience before becoming three-year-olds and for that reason, a solid field of nine has been assembled with only two stakes winners in the group. There is also a slim chance that one of the winners might earn enough points to qualify for the big race at KEE so this event can take on an added importance at one-mile over the SA turf, with the potential for something big to come out of it; just ask Juvenile Turf runner-up London Porter and Grade II winner Foggy Vision, who both won this race in its short history.
1-Nebraska Tom (Two-year-old black colt / Owner-Winning Link Stables)
It took four tries and the addition of Lasix for Nebraska Tom to break his maiden but he did so last time out at ELP going short and now, will try to stretch out his speed to two-turns off a pair of very sharp workouts. That one-mile spin over this course really stands out but his last was clearly not as good and although he is out of a very good family on grass, he will need to prove himself at this distance at least once before he gets my backing for victory.
Analysis-Struggled home in his last and that might be costly at one-mile
Fair Odds-8/1
2-Th Watcher (Two-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Running Farms)
Purchased and gelded in August after some high-profile efforts, Th Watcher moves to the lawn for the first time after failing twice at odds-on and might just be better suited for this surface, if his workout at KEE is any indication. The entire “Broomstick” line is proven on turf and he has proven himself as a closer in the past; give him some pace up front and this gelding might just be charging best down the lane.
Analysis-Turf debut could be a big effort
Fair Odds-7/2
3-King Of Doom (Two-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Bigking)
A maiden winner at FE and a claiming winner at CD, King Of Doom steps up big time for the Zuma Beach and should have a good chance to hit the board if the conditions remain firm on the SA turf. His workouts have been lightning quick and more importantly, with good late momentum which proves that he can not only handle the course but handle the added distance as well.
Analysis-Do not let his class fool you; he has talent
Fair Odds-3/1
4-Schibetta Dancer (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-BomBay Stables)
Schibetta Dancer was a mammoth maiden winner at LAD and came back to win an allowance event at MNR in a very quick final time but that can be deceiving over that track and the hope is that he can settle and get a decent run at the leaders around the turn. His speed ratings have been improving and he has been placed ambitiously in many of his races so this event is not out of the question and he seems to have figured out how to run, which makes him dangerous with the right trip.
Analysis-Take that MNR win with a grain of salt
Fair Odds-6/1
5-Walken In Memphis (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-Aarons Hosses)
Tiring at every call in his maiden attempt, to finish last at BEL while 20-1, Walken In Memphis jumps up in class and off his first race, has to be considered the longest shot in the Zuma Beach. No workouts, no progress, no nothing; that sums up his chances, plain and simple.
Analysis-No shot
Fair Odds-100/1
6-Fine Spirit (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-Drabfantasy)
Still a maiden winner after three starts, Fine Spirit was third in the Grade II With Anticipation and third in the Armed Forces and those experiences might be enough to get him to the winner’s circle here if he can relax a bit, unlike his last where he went off and got caught. Another from the “Broomstick” family on both sides, the love of the turf will be there and he needs only to find a good spot down the backstretch, in order to have enough left to close into what should be a solid pace.
Analysis-Has to win one of these days
Fair Odds-4/1
7-Under The Moon (Two-year-old gray colt / Owner-Pseven)
Two wins from five starts looks decent for a juvenile but Under The Moon has won both of those races at free tracks and needs to show that enterprise with a ton of changes including distance, surface and class. His last effort at DMR was tough to fathom going short on the dirt and the speed rating was only average; workouts have only been average as well and that will make him a longshot, with too many factors against him to ignore.
Analysis-Too many changes to his profile make him a tough choice
Fair Odds-20/1
8-Icicle Dawn (Two-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Barcelona Farms)
Icicle Dawn took everything off for his first start around two-turns at SAR, and showed absolutely nothing at long odds, but the addition of Lasix, blinkers and a shadow roll last time out helped him win the Sunday Silence at LAD and he now tries for a second stakes win and a guaranteed spot in the Juvenile Turf. However, at this writing, everything has been taken off again and that could prove costly so while he is the only stakes-winner on turf in the field, he cannot be backed with so many changes.
Analysis-Cannot take him with anything in his profile
Fair Odds-10/1
9-Yummy Opus (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-Drabfantasy)
Yummy Opus finished second in arguably the toughest stakes race for two-year-olds on the turf this year, behind Gotta Own The Light in the El Joven, and that experience and a blazing workout in preparation make him the favourite from the outside gate here. Lightly raced, solid in a closing role and handled by a solid jockey, he tackles a tough stablemate and others but should be well-suited to close into the speed and make another good account of himself.
Analysis-Outside post should have no hindrance on his chances
Fair Odds-5/2
Overall
The Zuma Beach Stakes is an interesting race in that many of the top contenders come in off losses but against better competition, and Yummy Opus from the outside looks like exactly that kind of horse, and will get my top nod. King Of Doom has never faced this level but his workouts and closing ability suggest talent that might be bursting to come out, while Th Watcher is a stakes-winner with a huge chance to improve in his first turf attempt, and would not be out of place with another solid win despite carrying two extra pounds.
Prediction
Win-Yummy Opus (5/2)
Place-King Of Doom (3/1)
Show-Th Watcher (7/2)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
