October 11, 2015

As a prep for races like the Grade II Marathon and the Grade II HAW Gold Cup, the Grade III Premiers at HST is a big event for Classic horses who have not quite been good enough to get into the big races on BC weekend and as such, has only attracted four entrants including one who, on paper, towered over the rest on class alone. But in order to win, he will have to overcome three turns at this quirky West Coast track and that can be tough if you are unable to carry your speed consistently for a long time, so the key might be speed from the inside that could get lose and lead everyone on a merry chase.

1-The Crown (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Aces High Ltd)

Lightly campaigned, and focused mostly on state-bred races, The Crown has improved steadily and finally got his first win of the season last time out but this is a big jump in class and back into open company, which might make him vulnerable despite getting a weight allowance. Speed ratings are increasing and he is the only one with any early zip so maybe he can get out and lead everyone and sprint away before the rest of the field is the wiser.

Analysis-Only speed could be a wire-to-wire threat

Fair Odds-5/1

2-Elusive Image (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Eastern Equine)

Since being claimed for only $5.000, Elusive Image has climbed the ladder from starter to allowance to Graded Stakes company and off a second in the Dominion Day behind the now-retired Nile Warrior, and a third in the Greenwood while ahead of multiple stakes winners, he has every chance to continue that form at this extended distance. He will most likely be stalking the inside speed and that could give him the edge over his outside rivals but that last speed rating was a departure from his best and he will have to improve his late momentum in order to contend for the win.

Analysis-Unable to close last time and needs more late run

Fair Odds-4/1

3-Better Step Back (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)

Although it was only for a $20.000 purse, Better Step Back was still good enough to power away from rivals at FER last time out but the problem is that his speed ratings are not up to par with others and he might be at the mercy of the inside speed, which always poses an issue. A confirmed closer, he will have to come up with more in the late stages if the pace is moderate and at this distance, that might be tough with such a short run to the wire.

Analysis-Stakes winner needs to put more forward

Fair Odds-10/1

4-Graceful Shadow (Six-year-old black gelding / Owner-Aer Stables)

Graceful Shadow is a multiple Grade II winner of more than $700.000 who on class alone, towered over the Premiers field and after a solid fourth in the much tougher Pacific Classic, he needs only to go out and set the pace en route to what should be an easy score. Purchased for a monster $176.000 back in May, he earned much of that back with a score in the Grade II Brooklyn and now, can set his sights on this race, plus the Marathon at KEE, as a fitting end to what could be a big season.

Analysis-Has all the talent to win this in a romp

Fair Odds-Even

Overall

Based on class, speed and form alone, Graceful Shadow looms as clearly the one to beat in the Grade III Premiers at HST on Monday afternoon and should be well meant around three-turns with his outside draw. Elusive Image likes a route of ground but needs to show more in the final furlongs to have a shot while The Crown gets a weight break and the rail with which to flaunt his speed, and could be long gone before the rest of the field knows it.

Prediction

Win-Graceful Shadow (Even)

Place-Elusive Image (4/1)

Show-The Crown (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES