October 23, 2015
The male counterpart to the Ticonderoga is the Mohawk over the same turf course at 1 1/16 miles and for the 2015 edition, features a field of six including three sophomores but only one stakes winner, which leaves things very wide open. To join a list that includes Graded Stakes winners Frown and Ducks And Drakes, someone will have to step up into a bigger bracket and prove themselves over a very tough grass course and experience over the surface might be the difference in a field looking to prove their worth.
1-Acquired Taste (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
As a juvenile, Acquired Taste was unable to hit the board in three starts but has come alive this year with three wins and a second in four starts and enters the Mohawk in great form, having won two straight including a tough optional claiming event in a very quick time. Lightning quick in workouts and touting the best speed rating in the field, he will be sitting nicely down the backstretch and could be the best closer in the bunch, making him doubly dangerous.
Analysis-Excellent form right now and should be charging late
Fair Odds-2/1
2-Star O Star (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Oval Express Farms)
Star O Star won three back for only the second time in his career and was a solid second in the Better Talk Now against open company last time out but while this might be a drop into restricted company, he faces much tougher and that will make him a longer shot that he probably should be. He is always fast in workouts but rarely translates that to a consistent effort on the racetrack and that lack of racing momentum will be costly against colts and geldings who are hitting their best strides in the early parts of their career.
Analysis-Not very good at putting good races back to back
Fair Odds-12/1
3-Avoid Risk (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
After a series of close calls as the favourite, Avoid Risk finally put it all together last time out against three rivals and scored a first-level allowance win, sitting him up for a move into stakes company and a match-up with his more talented stablemate. On speed ratings alone, he fits with this bunch as a top three candidate but has needed to find more verve in the final furlongs of his races and unless he does again over the BEL turf, he might be closing for a minor award versus contending for the win.
Analysis-Needs to find more in the final furlong
Fair Odds-6/1
4-Commercial Grade (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)
Second in the Grade II Firecracker to solid stakes runner Sir Tom, and a stakes winner in the Calloway at SAR this Summer, Commercial Grade threw in a clunker against open company going short at KEE last time and will clearly rebound in a return to a route of ground here. He has always shown good middle speed but longer distances like nine-furlongs have caught up with him so look for an on-the-pace performance here and one that will see J Alvarado relax him a bit and set up for a nice run down the shorter stretch.
Analysis-Will love getting back to a route distance
Fair Odds-3/1
5-Make A Decision (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Make A Decision has won three times in 23 career starts and only raced twice on the turf with a charging third in the West Point two back as his best effort; those kinds of numbers do not make for a confident backing in a race with horses that know how to win. Speed ratings have been hit and miss and he does not show a turf workout since August so the likelihood is that he will be closing late for a small piece if others do not beat him to the punch.
Analysis-Knows how to hit the board but not how to win
Fair Odds-10/1
6-Native Tongue (Six-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)
Every once in a while, Native Tongue still comes through with a big effort, like he did to start his season at GP and like he did last time out in a tough allowance at SAR but his follow-up efforts are usually not nearly as good and facing younger rivals, he will simply have to be at his very best come Saturday. Second and third in the last two editions of the Empire Classic on dirt, he will try for a win on the turf to highlight his career with a front running style his best chance of taking down the win.
Analysis-Veteran tries to beat his younger rivals at their own game
Fair Odds-8/1
Overall
Coming in off two huge wins including a score over this same course, Acquired Taste looks like a viable win candidate in the Mohawk and should be sitting perfectly inside with eyes on speed to the outside. Commercial Grade will be looking to rebound at a longer distance and has the back class to rate as the second choice while Avoid Risk faces his stablemate off a good win but needs to find more if he hopes to upset the top two choices.
Prediction
Win-Acquired Taste (2/1)
Place-Commercial Grade (3/1)
Show-Avoid Risk (6/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
