Muskoka Stakes
WO Race #4 6 1/2f Dirt Stake
Purse $250.000 For Fillies Two Years Old Foaled In Canada.
1 Peach Emoji Night Rider Stables Davis D
Rather than looking at just the one unsuccessful start, a debut run at the fair track which resulted in just third place we must look at the pre race work times and try and imagine what sort of bump this horse got in order to give it a chance in this race. Her last work of 1.00 flat was pretty good for an un-raced filly and if you consider her 1.13 pre race work for six furlongs it not too hard to imagine a second plus bump that would put her in this race with a decent chance. What we don’t know we can’t change but what we do know is that this filly secured an inform jockey and a plum draw despite her slim record and i have a feeling she is a lot better than that debut run.
2 Torrents Of Spring Wood Duck Stables Castellano J J
Like the filly drawn inside her this winner over four furlongs in a fair track maiden hasn’t got any form that suggests that she could do well here so we must delve a bit deeper to really discover her claims. Her pre race works weren’t too bad recording a 1.00.3 for 5 furlongs and a 1.13 and 2 for six and since then we have seen a nearly two second bump in her last work when she recorded a 1.11 and 3 6 furlongs work. That work puts her right in this and along with the perfect draw must be given a hope on those two points alone.
3 Battle Abbey The Sidley Stud Bejarano R
This one has far more form to go on than the two inside her but is working the same as them so it is hard to really weigh up her good form against the relatively light form of the two inside. This daughter of the great Ginger Haggis has been on the go since early April so will certainly be hard fit for this race and though she has won just one in five she has performed well in a few decent races. An on speed sort this draw will help her and she has the great Bejarano on board which wont hurt her chances either.
4 Hudson Bay Gdp Inc Stein J
A winner on debut at TUP she went on to run very well from a horrible draw in a CD allowance. She certainly caught the eye with that effort but her works since have been a little flat which maybe a cause for concern. The trainer and jockey combination are in great form though and with this better draw today she may be a popular choice.
5 Belgium Flag Wood Duck Stables Beschizza A
Another from Wood Duck Stable this one followed the same path as their other runner winning a four furlong MD maiden. Applying the same logic we saw a 59 and 3 work in company pre race and then similar breezes to her stable companion after the run so there really isn’t much between them. Another great draw and decent jockey gives this one a very similar chance to its stable companion.
6 Naughty Or Nice Mb Stables Court J K
Took her maiden at the third try and has been improving with each run. That win came ina state bred race and was pretty easy so it is clear this one is on the right path. A decent 58 and 3 work since her last start suggests she will go well but i don’t think she is the best of the stables two runners.
7 Take Pride Princess Mb Stables Hernandez R M
A winner on debut at SA she has since run in two ungraded stakes races and hasn’t really got involved. Her works are sharp but she has yet to put that onto the race course and she has a bit to find with Battle Abbey. She may be just about the best of the two stable runners but she needs to find a bit here.
8 Adirondack Smokey Stover Velazquez J R
Won on debut at GG she then ran well from a terrible draw in an LS allowance running second after trying to chase the speed from wide. This draw isn’t much better but she is working at 1.11 and 1 which is just about the best at six furlongs in the field. Tactics will be key from this draw.
9 Firing Herro Hawaiian Shirt Guy Hernandez J J
Took her maiden after four attempts and will have to step up a bit to win this race. Proven on a off track that’s state of going may help her chances from a difficult gate but she does have claims regardless of going. Her works are in the ball park but she doesn’t appeal as a winning chance.
10 Adrift At Sea Threshold Gaffalione T
Won on debut and then ran very well against the colts in the Bashford Manor after getting back from a wide draw. She gets no favors from the draw again today and gets her 12th choice jockey so its seems she may struggle again. Her works are good enough and her form attractive but she will need the race engine on her side to win.
11 Z Donut Arindel Bridgmohan S X
Gets the worst possible draw but if things go her way wouldn’t be a hopeless case. She won a nice maiden at MTH but couldn’t follow up in a strong allowance next time from a similar draw. Her works times are in the ball park so whilst a win wouldn’t surprise it maybe just beyond her.
SUMMARY
These two year old stakes races are about trying to weigh up maiden wins and improvement curves and this one is quite a web of intrigue around those two things. If you ignored the draw i would give Adrift At Sea a good chance but as she will need help to win it may pay to go with a safer draw. Battle Abbey may have the best exposed form in the race and is drawn well so looks a good chance and of the others you cannot ignore Mb Stables or Smokey Stover in this type of race. I think if i was going for a long shot in the race i would have a dollar each way on Peach Emoji who wont need much of a bounce after her debut to get involved.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
