The Smith Handicap (Grade 3)- $250.000 Purse
AQU- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and Three Eighths on the Turf
November 14, 2015
Post Breeders Cup blues may have hit The Smith Handicap, as a small field of five heads to post for the running of this long Grade 3 event. It’s an interesting field, as the horses have taken different paths to get to this point. A couple have made a living lately in graded stakes, so this is nothing new to them. Others have recently been claimed and showed a high level of promise in their first race or races with their new trainer, that the current connection is taking this step forward. Another is fresh off turning in a 106 SRF. That’s just not a figure you see much these days, and if you do, it was probably a horse that just ran in the BC. Despite these differing paths, there is not much difference in the weights amongst the field, ranging from 117 to 120 in this handicap. No trainer has won the race more then once, which is a trend we are guaranteed to continue as none of the trainers in this race is on the past winners list. The jockey board also features no repeat winners. Let us take a look at this field!
#1- Make Change (Night Rider Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Despite struggling in his last few outings, Night Rider Stables has not made any changes with Make Change and still throws him out there in graded events. That said, there is a large drop down for him in play here from having run in the Pattison and the Shadwell Turf Mile. We could be impressed that this field has a runner from those events, but the fact is he was a distant ninth in both of those races. His best race recently was the Oceanport Stakes, a Grade 3 down at MTH which runs for $100.000 less then this. He was third in that event. More then likely, this race will end much like that one did for him. I’m not optimistic about his chances of a win.
#2- Lythrum Salicaria (Blushing Meadows, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)- This four year old gelding has had a pretty similar season to Make Change in that he has been placed often in graded events, but has not had the greatest of results. While Make Change has one win in such a race in 2015 and Lythrum Salicaria does not, it is this one that has consistently been the more competitive racehorse. He’s coming off a particularly impressive race at the Grade 3 Knickerbocker Handicap where his 105 SRF earned him a second place finish. Unfortunately, he is meeting the winner who earned a 106 figure again here today. The race represented a return to the turf after a series of races in some of the best dirt races running for older horses: The Whitney at SAR and the Metropolitan Handicap at BEL (where he was second by a length to Mister Major). He seems to be ideally placed for this race, and has all the ability in the world to turn the tables on Another Mambo.
#3- Another Mambo (RNP Stables, J Rosario)- Most races he has been in this year have resulted in him going to the winners circle. He is six for eight this year, but it is only while running in the RNP Stables silks that he has truly flourished. He had mostly been seen in claimers, and in late August, RNP claimed him from Hambletonian Stable for $16.000. The new trainer kept him in a claimer in his first race, but for a much higher tag, and he won that race at BEL. With that win giving increased confidence, he was sent to the Grade 3 Knickerbocker Handicap and stunned that field, winning at odds of 13/1. If he can do it again here, then Another Mambo has certainly punched his ticket to running in bigger races as we move into 2016. This is a longer race, though, then the Knickerbocker, and the only time Another Mambo ran close to this distance was too long ago to analyze now. It’s interesting to note that this horse made his debut on September 8, 2012, and then did not have his second race until December 2014.
#4- May Dancer (Nakamura Stables, ridden by R Bejarano)- This four year old Mayhem gelding will be making his graded stakes debut after winning an optional claimer at CRC in his last start. He spent most of the season running for Double Cross Ranch, but was claimed for $16.000 at AP. Off the claim, he could only muster a fourth place finish in a RET optional claimer before the aforementioned run at CRC. He has never raced this long, and it would seem as though the trainer is banking on the being the difference for him here. This race may have ended up a little tougher then the trainer was hoping for, but May Dancer is sharp coming into this. On October 30th, he worked very impressively with a bullet work at a mile on turf at MTH (over a group of 57). Expect him to be a longshot on raceday.
#5- Royal Integrity (Aer Stables, ridden by J Alvarado)- Not only is Royal Integrity making his stakes debut (graded or ungraded), he also has been saved from the free track. Early in his career, Royal Integrity was able to showcase his ability at the pay level, mainly for Nakamura Stables, though never for high level purses. Then, he ended up in the Spinetingling barn where he became part of that stable’s free track arsenal. It is with Spinetingling that Royal Integrity’s true calling of liking longer distances was discovered. The trainer couldn’t continue to sneak him in free level claimers, and Aer Stables pulled him out with a $15.000 claimer. In his first race for his new connections, the eight time winner that still had N1X eligibility won a BEL allowance. This is a big step, but I like the risk that is being taken.
Prediction: 2-3-5-1
— NS
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
