BC Distaff – Grade I
KEE Race #10 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $2,000.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.
The BC Distaff has been run at KEE just once before this year in 2015 with the only other winner on this track being Lullaby Maker Tf, a three year old owned by Team 7 Illusions. The most interesting and key fact about the outcome of this raced based on its history is that 10 three year olds have won out of the 16 running’s and in the last 7 years only one older horse has managed to take the prize. In fact the other 7 winners have been four year olds suggesting that this race heavily favors the younger generation.
No trainer has won this race twice and no jockey seems dominant so on that score it is pretty even but you can’t get away from the success the younger horses have had in the past.
The fastest time for this race came in 2011 when Millionaire Heiress scorched home in 1.47.17 a feat made even better by the fact that she carried 124Lbs. Last year was one of the fastest races ranking fourth overall but was the fastest since 2012.
So how do they line up this year and what chances do the older horses have? Well it has been a slightly better year for the older horses and with only 2Lbs between the ages there aren’t any real excuses for the older generation. Draw as always will be important but we have seen a fast early pace favor those wide draws that are taken back for a late run so maybe they aren’t the death sentence they used to be as long as you aren’t squirted into the lead for a pace duel.
1 – Camp Hollywood
A four year old filly owned by Smokey Stover
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A grade dual one winning two year old she won the BC Juvenile Fillies with a storming late finish. With that sort of form her three year old season was pretty disappointing certainly for most of it but did come back to herself after a bad start to win the grade one La Brea at the end of the year. This season started the same with pretty average efforts early on in the year but she has again picked it up winning the ONT Matron and the very nearly winning the Hirsch before a close seventh in the Zenyatta last time. She definitely runs better from off the pace and will need a bit of luck in the hustle and bustle of the BC but she certainly has the ability of things go her way.
2 – Bite The Bullet
A three year old filly owned by Mb Stables
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Won the Tempted as a two year old and was always going to be aimed at the KYO and that aim certainly was the right one as she took the grade one Ashland on the way to a win in the KYO. She certainly showed how game she was in those two grade ones winning by a head and a nose but the way she has performed since then suggests those two narrow victories may have taken a bit out of her. Can she recapture that great winning form? Well she has been given all favors by the draw today so if there is a big win win left in her she wont get a better chance than this.
3 – Pocono Fashion
A three year old filly owned by Nakamura Stables
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This filly looked no better than average as a two year old but hit her straps running when she turned three finishing second in the SUN Oaks and then winning The Lady Secret Stakes by five lengths. That win had a freakish ease about it but as she was getting a big weight allowance it had to be taken with a pinch of salt until she did it again. Her next start was in the grade one CCA Oaks and whilst she didn’t win her half length third certainly proved that her improved form was no fluke. In her last start she overcame a terrible draw to win the grade one Cotillion by a fairly easy length and that win certainly underlined her new found prowess as a serious BC contender. Her works are a fair way from her form and some of the other runners but these days works do not seem to mean as much as race course performance so i wouldn’t put that as a reason to see her beaten.
The stable has been in fine form this year and this filly has never been outside the first four.
4 – Odd Trek
A three year old filly owned by D J C Racing Stables
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Came good at the end of her juvenile season winning her last two starts and has continued that improvement. A good win in the SUN oaks saw her take part in the KYO where she ran a great race from the car park draw to be beaten just a length into eighth. She was impressive again in The Acorn from a wide draw this time timing her finish perfectly to win by a length and then followed that up with a fine win in the CCA Oaks with Pocono Fashion behind her. Yet another wide draw her third in four starts saw her leave it all too late in the Cotillion but it is easy to forgive that effort. She is clearly a filly with everything she needs to win a race like this and could have an even better record had she had some more luck with the draw. Her recent 1.36 and 2 work with the three year old allowance puts her right in this.
5 – Precise Performance
A three year old filly owned by Mb Stables
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She got things away pretty quickly in her career winning three races as a two year including two nice stakes races and a solid effort in the grade one Chandelier. It was apparent from those early efforts that she would be a KYO type and underlined that thought when taking the Santa Ynez Stakes and FG oaks on her way to the big one. She got a nice draw in the KYO and traveled in a nice position but when the rush came for the post she couldn’t get home finishing a highly creditable fifth less than a length behind the winner. Since that good effort she has actually got a little better running third in the Acorn before winning the IND Oaks and the grade one Alabama but then faced a tough draw in her last race when third in the Cotillion. Considering both of her grade one defeats since the KYO have both been from difficult draws you could argue that with an inside draw she could well be on a five timer coming into this so her chances must be considered very carefully.
I think the trip is perfect for her and with a fastest mile work this year of 1.36 and 1 she certainly ticks plenty of boxes.
6 – Cannolo
A four year old Filly owned by Mb Stables
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She had a huge three year old season when owned by DJC Racing Stables winning the Acorn and running some great races in defeat notably in the KY oaks when fourth and three other grade ones where she filled the places and was beaten by short margins. Somewhat surprisingly she was sold when qualified for last years BC to Mb Stables who already had a bunch of qualifiers but it was to prove a canny move by the previous owner as the filly could only manage sixth in last years Distaff. She has trained on in much the same form this year as a four year old winning the grade one Phipps and finishing close up in the Personal Ensign, La Troinne and Beholder. Her last start was a little uncharacteristic when seventh in The Spinster and the effort was a little like her BC run so if that was her one blip of the season we may see her back to her best today. There is no doubt she could win this but there is probably more confidence in her running in the top six than winning outright, having said that this is a tough and consistent filly and wont be unpopular in the betting.
7 – Tenrikyo
A four year old filly owned by Smokey Stover
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The winner of the KYO last year after winning the Ashland she looked unbeatable going into the Summer but came up short three times in a row and seemed to be struggling to get over her exertions in the KYO. Of course we would all like that to be the plausible explanation but in truth it was probably the fact that she got three difficult draws in a row and most of the time that is the difference between success and failure at HRP. She got a great draw in the BC Distaff last year and came right back to her best with a great half length second to Z Command showing her true colors again. This season she has been brought along slowly but her last start win in The grade one Spinster certainly sounded a warning shot for her rivals here.
The owner has a really strong hand in this race and a 1.36 and 1 work for the dirt mile says this one is ready to be a big player in the finish.
8 – Drink Me Pretty
A three year old filly owned by Estero Farms
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This filly was bought for $50 after winning a free track allowance at two and was then bought again two races later for $350 after finishing third in the Alcibiades. The new and current owner would have been very happy that that pretty high price was quickly rewarded as she ran a cracker from the 14 box in the BC Juvenile Fillies when second beaten just a half length. Those last couple of runs put her very near the top of the tree for her generation heading into this season and she quickly continued in the rich vein of form. Beaten a nose in her first two starts she made the KYO where she again found herself on the wrong side of a photo finish when third beaten just a head. She very nearly made this field without a win this year but finally got her first win as a three year old in her last start. That was a much deserved win in the CT Oaks and followed a half length second in the CCA Oaks splitting Odd Trek and Pocono Fashion. She is a real consistent sort who has claims here and will give you an honest run for your money.
9 – Tell It Like It Is
A three year old filly owned by Nakamura Stables
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A progressive juvenile she stepped it up at three winning the Davona Dale and the SA Oaks on the way to a terrific effort in the KYO. Drawn wide she tried to do the HRP impossible and make all the running at a good pace and she very nearly pulled it off just getting nosed out by Bite The Bullet on the line. Where Bite The bullet looked badly effected by that effort this one still looked on the up and went on to run second in the Acorn and then win the DEL Oaks very easily. She didn’t get all favors in the Alabama so her fifth place was OK but i must admit to being concerned about her poor effort in the Cotillion last time out. Taken way back off a fast pace she made ground but could only manage ninth. Now she had excuses as her late run was chequered but i do worry about her mid race pace in a field like this as she may find traffic problems again. Could run well if she gets a decent position early in the race.
10 – Hollywood Sister
A four year old filly owned by Winning Link Stables
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You would have to say that with just two wins from twenty one starts that she would come into this race as an outsider to win. Consistent at three she started her four year old career still with just the one maiden win to her name but had showed enough to suggest another win wasn’t far away. Bought at auction at the start of the year she seemed to have a sharp rise and fall in form as she was narrowly beaten in the Santa Maria after trying to make all from a wide draw and then won the FDL Handicap to qualify for this race. She then ran a fair race to be sixth in the Personal Ensign but then was pretty poor in the Spinster last time out. It is hard to make a case for her in such a strong field but she is here and there are plenty that aren’t so anything she does will be a bonus.
11 – Obvious Deception
A four year old filly owned by Nakamura Stables
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Pretty average at two she picked up a bit at three but still didn’t really set the world alight. As a four year old though she has clearly found the top of her improvement curve winning three of her five races including a grade one to qualify for this race. That big win came in the Hirsch and on form was a little surprising but it was clear from her works that she was finding something from the matrix and with a good draw proved a neck too good. Her last start confirmed that was no flash in the pan as she ran a solid third in the Zenyatta beaten just a length. A recent 1.36 and 1 mile work suggests she is still on the up and this trainer has pulled all of their horses up a few lengths this year with some training technique which seems to be working wonders.
12 – Z Command
A four year old filly owned by Smokey Stover
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It’s always great when we see reigning champions back to the BC to defend their crown but we also know just how hard it is to beat the three year olds, the same age this one was when she won last year. er run up to the BC last year was pretty similar to Precise performance winning the IND Oaks and The Alabama on her way to the Distaff. This season she hasn’t missed a beat especially early on when taking on races restricted to older fillies and mares. Two grade ones, the vinery madison and the La Troinne saw strong wins but she then disappointed from a wide draw in the Phipps only to bounce back in the Personal Ensign. Her last start was in the PID Masters Stakes over a sprint trip where she had a good blow out and still managed third beaten under a length. Back to her trip today and with the perfect draw she must be a chance to gain a famous second win and cement herself as a top broodmare prospect for one of HRP’s emerging breeding stars.
13 – The Belle Tolls
A three year old filly owned by Allinthegate
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Another three year old with a great record she won both the Schuylerville and the Spinaway on the way to a strong fourth in the BC Juvenile Fillies last year but didn’t finish there and went on to a close second in The Starlet at the end of the year. Straight back into it as a three year old she won the Las Virgenes before a second in the GP oaks and then ran fourth beaten less than a length in the KYO. That KYO saw a whole bunch of today’s runners finish within a length of each other and really is a great example of just how close these three year olds are. A solid second in the Cotillion last time she has every right to take her place here and every chance to get right into it.
14 – Fabuloua Angelina
A four year old filly owned by Allinthegate
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The one thing we can be sure about with this filly is that she will not run in the first ten if it rains. With four terrible efforts in the wet it is probably the one thing that can be guaranteed in this race. So we can only discuss her chances if it is dry and realistically her chances come down to one race and one incredible performance which just happened to be in her last race. She had shown glimmers of that sort of form when flying home to win the Raven Run in 2019 and then again in the Royal Delta at the start of this year so clearly on her day can be very good but its that wet ground form that makes her record look less attractive. Her win from a wide draw in the Zenyatta was good enough to make her the sort, if the track is dry, to be the dark horse in this race.
AE – Laffy Crack
A four year old Filly owned by Night Rider Stables
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On her flying second in the Spinster last time would have claims even if stuck in the wide gate. However it is highly unlikely she will get in, if she does take a closer look.
SUMMARY
A great field of fillies and mares however my heart does go out to poor Allinthgate who ended up with two entries who drew gate 13 and 14. For their sake i hope there is a crazy early pace and the closers from the back come way down the outside and earn them some reward for getting their two runners into the race.
So how do we sort this field out? I think we have to look at the two age groups separately and then together because the three year old form can be hard to read against older horses and we all know they carry an advantage into this race.
So of the three year olds we have Odd Trek and Precise Performance who both had a rotten draw to contend with last time but are in the right place today and Pocono Fashion and Drink Me Pretty who are coming off of good wins last time. There is better form around i just feel these are the four that are in the right frame of mind for today. Of the older horses we have last years runner up Tenrikyo who came right back to her best last time, Obvious Deception who put up an electric work time last time and Fabulous Angelina who may be better than bare form suggests, finally last years winner Z Command will relish the competition.
i am favoring Odd Trek today purely on the draw, I think there will be very little between her and Pocono Fashion and we may even see Precise Performance spoil the party as she was arguably finishing best in the Cotillion the three met.
Good luck to all with runners and all those trying to win the handicapping comp.
Categories: BC 2018-20, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP
