BC Fillies & Mares Sprint – Grade I
11/7/2020 KEE   7 f dirt
Purse $1,000.000  For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.

Wbf No Regrets
Won Humana and Distaff Hcp in spring, was less sharp in the Bed O’ Roses and in the Ballerina. Trainer Twin Towers then gave her a long break. She has times and class to win, the question is in what condition is she? If it’s the Humana or Distaff’s condition, watch out. She will likely race close to the lead and hope there’s enough left for the final acceleration.

Grayte Crack
Had a good run here at KEE a month ago, placing well in the TC of America behind Repercussions. Since the Inside Information back in January, the run in the TC was her best performance for the year. Has a tough task here, but will fight for a spot in the money. Expect to move sharply off the gate and take good position. It remains to see how ready she will be in the last furlong.

Z is For Zero
After 4 consecutive wins, she finished third in the Test and placed in the Ct Oaks with a good race. She is among the best here, although taking first prize won’t be that easy. Like here or not, she can’t be left out of trifecta systems, having finished in the money 6 out of 6 this year: reliable, regular and consistent.

Class Status
After a strong showing in the Princess Rooney where she finished second and rallying with purpose, took a step back in the TC ending in 5th place. For some reasons, with the same pace of the Princess Rooney, in the TC she found herself near the lead early, then lost focus and some positions. Much better instead working her way up from mid pack situation in the Princess.Seems a bit reaching in terms of grade 1 wins, but the run at Gulfstream in September suggests not to discard her. Watch though: if she’s in the pack coming home she has the ability to finish strong.

Out And Bad
A good, very good run in the Humana gave her a second place and a solid 100 SRF rating. After that though, she has little to show and you wonder if she might be a little tired having raced already 9 times this year. Challenge here looks very difficult for this filly.

Ms Pea
Well, that’s peculiar! This is the winner of the Grade 1 Ballerina where she dealt with some of the rivals she will face in this race. The interesting thing is that Aer Stables raced her 7 times in 2020 and only once, in the Ballerina, on sprint races. Before and after she was sent to routes with alternate degrees of fortune. As we will see when we get to PP #9, it’s something they do at Aer Stables. Now, she’s back to sprint where she looked very comfortable and she is a contender here.

La Marseillase
Won Honorable Miss and Shine Again in good shape before attempting a trip on the grass that resulted in less glamorous result. Expect her to be a front runner and setting the pace or contributing to it anyway by pressing the lead. The speed is there, it remains to be seen how much she’ll have in the tank on the stretch as this race is likely to produce sharp partials.

First Impression
First of 3 Mb Stables contenders in this race (in order of post position), First Impression is often there, in the mix with the best. Interesting fact is that she apparently is fine with 2-3 different racing styles: in races with similar partials she can be in the lead, stalking, at mid pack, pretty much anywhere. Does she have enough to win? She could, although I like her more in the exotic systems.

Totally Baroque
Here’s the other Aer Stables’ filly and again, she was raced in routes all year long. Except once: in the Princess Rooney, where she won big, going below 69 seconds over 6 furlongs with a round 100 SRF rating. The speed is all there, she can definitely burn anybody. It’s amazing though that at Aer between Totally Baroque and Ms Pea, they kept running routes and when they tried the sprint once they succeeded big with both.

Repercussions
Another Mb filly, 7 races for the year, every time in the money, 4 wins. The win in 1:09 in the Tc looks very good, also because obtained with a strong finish which might suggest she shouldn’t have an issue going an extra furlong. Very solid pick here.

Hawaiian Crusader
Here’s another sharp contender, winner of the Test, another example of consistency: 8 of 8 ITM. She can handle speed and early pace, although I see more staying in the top group up front than going for the lead.

Truly Deeply Madly
Last win comes in an allowance back in June at CD. She showed that she can handle speed, but you never know what you are going to get out of her. Since April she good second in a grade 1, then 6th in the Humana, then won a top allowance, then only 9th in the Ballerina, then a very good close second in the Honorable Miss and lastly a disappointing 9th place in the TC of America. So one up, one down, and if that continues it’s good news for Jive, because it’s the “one up” turn. Still, it’s going to be a tough challenge for her to succeed here with the abundant quality.

Christina G
The last of 3 Mb Stables, winner of the Prioress, she is in the mix. Won 4 of the last 6, and she could be the one sent out early, as I believe Mb will want to have a filly up there with the early pace. The post position is not very friendly so she might try an early move to position herself quickly also because I don’t remember John Velasquez racing from the back in a long time. Contender.

Tommy Frazier
She is going to be a long shot, but you never know. If the track gets wet she might actually benefit. Not sure of what happened in the TC, where she raced poorly end to end, but she was very lively in the Ballerina where she finished a good third thanks to a razor sharp finish. John Henry is recalling Gaffalione who had her in the Ballerina and worked well with there.

Well, this is a tough one to pick. There is plenty of speed and quality and even the so-called mid and long shots could perform as they showed already in the past.

I was impressed by how Repercussions won and finished the TC of America, but Christina G is also up there with the 2 Aer fillies, the consistent Hawaiian, Z is for Zero, Wbf, the speedy Marseillase and as it comes to possible upset, watch for the possible closing of Grayte Crack and Class Status.

Understand that this is written way before the morning lines, so the concept of longshot, upset or favorite here is relative and pretty much based on one man’s opinion. Very good race though, deep field and I look forward to watch it and enjoy it with the rest of the BC program.

Mauro Ruini
Alabarda

Categories: BC 2018-20, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP