November 14, 2015

Named for a champion mare from Canada, and favourite in the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, the Grade II Bessarabian Stakes has been a feature at WO since 1985 and this Sunday, will feature a field of four trying to add the best part of $200.000 to their bankroll. Winners in real-life have included Ruling Angel, Zadracarta and Winter Garden while at HRP, the likes of multiple stakes winner Dynamite Rose, Grade I winner and $1,500.000 earner Mondo Grosso and fellow Grade I winner Spirits, who will not be back to defend her title after winning as the favourite last year. In her stead, we get a pair of stakes winners and an up-and-coming three-year-old who races for the second time in her new barn but might just be finding her right stride and could be dangerous at this seven-furlong trip.

1-Lovely Lodge (Five-year-old chestnut mare / Owner-Diablo Diablo)

Lovely Lodge has been racing since the early stages of her two-year-old season but with only 15 starts under her belt, she has certainly been handled carefully and looks to score her first win of the season here after a series of close finishes in tough allowance and stakes competition. Off since July when she backed up to last in a tough allowance contest, she has been working solidly at DED and WO and could be a pace contender, although the seven-panels might not be her best distance unless she gets the lead all alone.

Analysis-Comes back off the layoff and could be short

Fair Odds-8/1

2-Swimwear (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Threshold)

Since a fourth in the Grade II Distaff at AQU last April, Swimwear has been on a bit of a tear in minor allowance company and after three straight wins in near wire-to-wire fashion, she will look to stretch out to seven-furlongs for the first time and could be a serious threat. Her speed ratings are solid and she has the confidence to handle this class, with the only factor being her ability to settle on the front end; get a modest early split and this filly will be long gone to the wire.

Analysis-Clear choice off three dominant wins

Fair Odds-2/1

3-Mistress Bride (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aer Stables)

Purchased by Aer Stables for more than $41.000 after two wins in four career starts, Mistress Bride got right to work for her new stable with a solid second at RP after taking the lead late in the lane and while that effort was clearly above her class level, this is also a big reach and the hope is that she can continue to improve. Her 95-speed rating was clearly one of her best and she should be better second time off the layoff so look for more late stamina down the lane and the chance for her to really show her stuff as she heads into the older ranks next year.

Analysis-Improved last time but needs more of that here

Fair Odds-4/1

4-Marshed (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

From a truly blueblood family and already a stakes winning sprinter this year, Marshed will look to handle the seven-furlongs of the Bessarabian better than the six-furlongs of the LA Woman and if she runs back to her effort in the Duchess, she could easily find that extra length down the lane. She seems to have different running styles each and every race and that could pose a problem for her if she chooses to go out to the front; her best bet would be to sit off the loaded speed inside and pounce late, with a determined rush into a great final placing.

Analysis-Has had a great season and could cap it off in style

Fair Odds-3/1

Overall

Three big wins in a row, albeit against easier company, make Swimwear the logical choice in the Grade II Bessarabian and unless she gets pace pressure from inside starter Lovely Lodge, she should be able to get to the front and set modest splits en route to victory. Marshed would be wise to take back and make a final run down the lane and if the fractions are quick, she could be picking up the pieces while Mistress Bride seems to be improving but might not have enough yet to compete with these seasoned rivals.

Prediction

Win-Swimwear (2/1)

Place-Marshed (3/1)

Show-Mistress Bride (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES