November 19, 2015

Restricted to LA-breds on the same day as the more lucrative DED Princess, the LA Jewel usually attracts a small field and this year, only has four entrants with three of them from the powerful Team 7 Illusions. Initial winner Sunday Girl went on to good success in state-bred company throughout her career, Smoocher became a Grade II winning sprinter after her score in 2013 and last year’s winner, Princess Jasmin, was actually a stakes winner in August before being retired, so there is a good track record of success from this race and hopefully, that will continue for the lucky victor here.

1-Minda (Two-year-old gray filly / Owner-Royalty Racing)

Minda is the only duel winner in the LA Jewel field and despite coming in off a fourth in the DMR Debutante and a lackluster ninth in the Alcibiades, she still ranks as a logical choice with the cutback to one-mile and the experience at this level. Speed ratings are quite solid and she will get a quicker pace to chase so look for her to sit well back early and come rocketing down the lane, with enough to get close to the win, if not take it in a romp.

Analysis-Stakes experience will help her in this field

Fair Odds-2/1

2-Arc Of Charley (Two-year-old black filly / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

Only two sires are represented in the LA Jewel and Chief Charley is chief among them, with the inside runner and Arc Of Charley here, who was a big private purchase and was no disgraced in her debut for the barn when sixth in the Alcibiades. Now, she drops in class for a big payday and should improve with the experience, making her another solid choice in a field that lacks any early speed and could see a horse just go out and lead gate-to-wire.

Analysis-Could be the speed and that is dangerous

Fair Odds-5/2

3-Dead Hat (Two-year-old bay filly / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

Winless in four starts, and really not even close to a top placing, Dead Hat enters the LA Jewel to fill a space and will be most likely be competing with her stablemate for one of the smallest awards. Her speed figures have been improving but are still well below the best in this field and even her workouts are average, showing this handicapper that she will be after a small piece in an effort to improve her credentials for future races.

Analysis-Not in the same class as the top two

Fair Odds-10/1

4-Hillbilly Medium (Two-year-old gray filly / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

Hillbilly Medium could be the big surprise in the LA Jewel, coming off a closing fourth in a MNR maiden race after breaking slowly, and with the move from turf to dirt, the extra distance and that race under her belt, she could be the fastest down the lane and run by everyone. She backed that up with a decent workout at RIL and gets an outside post in a small field; all in all, a filly to look out for if the price is right.

Analysis-Could be the spoiler in a field without a real star

Fair Odds-6/1

Overall

Experience usually trumps talent in two-year-old races but that might not be the case in the LA Jewel on Saturday afternoon, despite my selections for the top two spots. Minda and Arc Of Charley both come in off even efforts in the Grade I Alcibiades, with the former having taken a cheque in a Grade I prior to that, so they will be the top choices to handle the one-mile distance. But Hillbilly Medium looked good closing at MNR in her debut and could be the spoiler if she gets a pace duel up front, and can handle the two-turns around the DED track.

Prediction

Win-Minda (2/1)

Place-Arc Of Charley (5/2)

Show-Hillbilly Medium (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded