HOL Derby – Grade I

11/28/2015   16:30   11/24/2015 3:00   DMR   Race #4   1 1/8m   Turf   Graded Stake 
Purse $300.000  For Three Year Olds. 

1 Sandor Clegane, trained by Smithtown Stables
Bought at auction for just under three dollars his career was revitalised by a switch
to turf and he burst onto the scene when beaten under a length in The American Derby.
He followed that up with another good second at grade three level before breaking through
and hitting triple digit speed figures in The Saranac. A failure in soft ground next up can
be ignored and he hit his straps again last time out with a huge run in the BC Mile when
narrowly beaten by Sir Tom. That BC run came out of nowhere and i think had something to
do with the boost the three year olds got so you have to treat it with a little bit of
suspicion and back against his own age group here may actually be a disadvantage. Whatever
happens today this horse has been an amazing cheap purchase and he could easily win on his
last effort and from a handy draw.

2 Garibaldi, trained by Jerry Garcia Racing
Another who looked fairly ordinary until he got going in April. A good win in an Allowance
spelled an impprovement and his experienced trainer was quick to take advantage. A late finishing
seventh in the PEN Mile was followed up with a big run for second in the LA Derby. That run
signalled a switch to dirt and he stayed on that surface to win the Curlin Stakes and then run
second in the BC Derby. But deep down he wanted the turf and he was given the chance to excel
on that surface last time out in the HAW Derby where he strolled home by two lengths.
Although he has won three from five on turf i think he is a genuine multi surface type
and comes here with every chance of continueing the improvement he has been showing since April.

3 Spotted Cat, trained by Blushing Meadows
This is undoubtedly the class horse in the race but he has failed to achieve at the level
that he had promised earlier in the year. It may be his size that has held him back or it
may be his running style but either way he will be remembered as the nearly star of the
season. A second in the SA Derby saw him take his chance in the KYD but he never got in
that race. Close up in fifth in the PEN Mile was followed by a huge effort in the Arlington
Million when a fast finishing fourth. He finally got a win in the Grade three Hill prince
and then took on the BC Dirt Mile where he finished strongly but again never got in the
action. The field size today will definately help his late rnning style and i still think he
is a special horse so it is not difficult to see him winning its just a matter of him
being close enough to launch as they enter the stretch.

4 Mucho Black, trained by Nakamura Stables
This one didnt break his maiden until this season as well and has been building well ever since.
After very nearly winning the Kent Stakes he was sold for $150, a price that looked like money well spent
as the new trainer coaxed a super win out of him in the first attempt for the new yard.
Going through in 1.45 and 1 he made all to win a competitive overnight by an easy four lengths and
whilst that looks very good on paper he was only carrying 116Lbs which may be the difference.
There is no doubt he is good and his works suggest he may be up to this level but there are some
good types in this race and he will have to improve again to win.

5 Bad Mouth, trained by Heavens Own
Another that was recently bought for a fairly high sum, he was bought for $325 from the powerful Mb
Stables. For his old stable he was aimed at the three year old dirt classic races placing in
The Withers but failing to make the KYD field after a poor run in the AR Derby. After two more
good runs without placing at graded level the sales price looked pretty high but his works on turf
may also suggest he could be the most inspired buy of the season. His only start for his new stable
was a win in a high level Allowance on a first effort on turf and that effort was very good and
suggests he has been a turf horse in the waiting all season. His works say he can win this and
it wouldnt be a surprise if he did exactly that.

6 Full Of Trinity, trained by D J C Racing Stables
Another stakes winning turf horse he very nearly won the grade one Secretariat Stakes, failing by
just a nose in second but since then has lost his way a bit. He is an honest enough sort who is
working well so expect a good effort but probably not a winning one.

7 Officer Outcast, trained by Downwind Stables
Another cheap buy who has managed a stakes win this season, he may not look as good as some on
the face of it but a look at one piece of his form speaks volumes for his chances. In July he
won the Toronto Cup Stakes in 1.45 and 3 but was carrying 125Lbs to victory that day and
if you compare that to a few here he has every right of running this trip out quicker than they
can. His win two back in the Kentucky Cup was very good and he was blown away by the outside
speed push in the Pacific Classic last time out. He has to handle a wide draw again today but
i do like him enough to see him as the dark horse in the field.

SUMMARY

I am giving Spotted Cat one more chance today and see him coming late to beat the under
rated Officer Outcast.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES