3/27/21
10 SUN SUN Derby (GIII)
$700.000 3yo 1 1/8m Dirt 120lbs
I’m surprised at the short field of nine for the SUN Derby (GIII) out in NM on Saturday, but points can be the deciding factor on where these 3yo’s go. Can you look past Howl Of The Hound today? I surely cannot… undefeated in five starts and won (DH) at the distance when scoring in the Risen Star (GII). He beat a few of these in that race and it will surprise me if he doesn’t get his picture taken today. Let’s go right next door and put Tequila Rise in the second spot. He’s been close in a few stakes races including a fourth at SA vs. graded horses, so he fits well here. There’s a couple others that warrant a serious look for the minor spots, but I’ll stick with the top choice as my best bet of the day.
Here’s The Field –
Ran big in a couple of high-end stakes as a 2yo but his 3yo efforts have both come against Alw horses at GG, a win and a fourth. The distance will also be interesting for this one as his 21 efforts have been six furlong sprints.
Well well well… from the big barn, he’s undefeated in five starts including wins in three consecutive graded stakes races. He won (DH) at today’s distance last out taking the Risen Star (GII) at FG. If you can fault him, go ahead… if you can bet against him, go ahead. I can do neither.
Two wins from this one, but he has struggled against stakes company. Fourth in the Lewis (GIII) at SA and last out fifth in the Battaglia at TP, so he’s going to have to improve or it could be another long day at the race track.
This one just can’t seem to find a home… Auctioned, sold privately, claimed twice… and he made three starts in all of that. He ran well for a tag, but his one stakes effort ended in a last of twelve and he was sixth vs. Alw company. I find it hard to put him in the mix.
Broke maiden then struggled vs. Cal-bred stakes, but woke up to be a nice closing fourth in the San Vicente (GII) last out. Could the added distance help this lightly raced gelding? He may be decent odds as well… give him a look.
Another that has struggled while facing graded foes, running last in both the Sham and Holy Bull. He was third vs OptAlw types at SA last out, but he’s going to need his best to be part of this one.
Broke maiden last out and I’m horrible at figuring out the next move with these. I know quite a few maiden winners have stepped up to stakes recently and they ran big, so you may want to keep this one in the back of your mind.
Still a maiden, but he was third in the San Vicente Stakes (GII) so he’s shown some ability against this type of competition. Came back to beat one horse in the San Felipe (GII) as the post time favorite… so who do we get today?
Two wins from this one but was fifth in his only black type effort which was in the Risen Star (GII). He closed a bit that afternoon after lagging back, so a better break could put this one in a good spot.
COZMAN 2 / 3 (5/9) Willie’s Green Card 6 / 1
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES