The Carter Handicap – Grade I
AQU Race #5 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $300.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.
1 Ferrari Pininfarina Night Rider Stables Castellano J J
This is one of Night Riders many claims and like a good few others he has proved a good investment. The important thing in a race like this is that seven furlongs can be a funny trip, too far for a sprinter, too short for a router so it is important that a horse has the correct balance of speed and stamina and this one certainly has that.
His last three races all in stakes company have all been very good but the last two over this trip have been exceptional for a horse that was running in claimers not so long ago. Second in the General George he ran even better than that in the San Carlos Stakes when beaten only a half length into fourth. So here we have a horse that has the class, a low weight, a great draw and an affinity to the trip and on that evidence must rate a very good chance.
2 Expert Eye TwinTowersRacing Franco M
The top weight gets the perfect draw so with that balance we can forget the weight factor and concentrate on his form. A five year old son of Commanding he won the Smile Sprint Handicap last year and then came out on seasonal debut to win the Toboggan and was beginning to look pretty promising. However he has thrown some poor races i between those runs and his consistency must be called into doubt. It is telling that in his last five races he is two from two at grade three but zero from three at grade two which could be telling us that he is a grade three horse or that he can drop a poor race now and again. He could easily run well because he has the trip he likes and a great draw but he could be a risky proposition.
3 Jigokudani Spankys Barn Rosario J
Highly consistent with 11 placings from twenty starts he still only has the one win which may tell the story about him better than the form guide. His works are very strong, as strong if not stronger than most of these but you have to question the heart gene when those great works result in a one from twenty record.
4 Grandstand Jockey John Henry Alvarado J
A close fifth in the BC Dirt Mile last year and then second in the grade one Malibu over this trip he gets in here with a very winnable weight from a very winnable draw. He has been suffering from the random draw monster in his last three with three wide draws but gets in much better today and that gives him a big chance of picking up this grade one.
5 Instagooglefacetweet Threshold Pedroza B
The Marathon winner in 2018 we normally see him over longer trips but today he steps out in only his second race over this trip. The key here is where he ends up after the start, he should be strong enough at the end but he will need to show some pace to get into a position early on.
6 Mojave Rattler John Henry Lanerie C J
Another runner from the stable that is cleverly placed in the handicap. He won the BC Mile in 2019 after taking the Shadwell Turf Mile so whilst his best form has been on the turf we all know that surface doesn’t mean so much at HRP. As if to prove my point in the space of 6 months he won a grade three dirt sprint and a grade three turf mile, the last of those being the Tropical Turf at GP at the beginning of this year. Since then he switched back to dirt to run a one length sixth in the GP Mile and considering he has won over 2K that looks good form for a race like this. There are question marks about him of course, he certainly hasn’t raced up to that BC form since but class is an important gene here at HRP and he has a big one and that will carry him a long way.
7 Personal Beliefs Maxmillion Farm Carrasco V R
We normally see the turf king switching from dirt to turf but this one comes from turf to dirt and going on his works should not be over looked off bottom weight. He won the Ruby Stakes last year and ran well enough in the AR Derby suggesting this switch back wont be a problem and if you are looking for possible longer odds this one may well be worth an investment.
8 Twilight Flame Mb Stables Ortiz J L
This four year old has promised a bit more than he has delivered in his short career but has shown enough that like all runners from the stable he should be considered. A good fourth in the Mineshaft on seasonal debut his works are pretty good for this and of course Mb Stables can find a magic length when it comes to grade one races.
9 On The Turning Away Gdp Inc Moran D
Would only be an each way chance if he was drawn nearer the rail but the fact that he has come up with a wide draw makes him very hard to pick. Decent enough at overnight level this is a speculative chance even at HRP.
10 Scafati Fractious Saenz D
Ran faster than most seven furlong horses can run when 16th in last years terrible KYD where he made the running in record breaking fractions. He went on to run a fine second in the Travers when ridden a bit more sensibly so clearly is far more than a rabbit. Unbeaten this year his form has a bit of HRP’ness about it with a sprint dirt win and a turf mile win but what that does tell us is that he has trained on and is a good horse. Good enough to win from the wide gate? Well this one already has a novel to be written so why not !
SUMMARY
An intriguing race that really could be won by 9 different horses in nine different ways. I think Grandstand Jockey look the one though with maybe Personal Beliefs as the smokey.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
