November 5, 2015
The CC Jewel is the biggest race of the weekend and the biggest race on a huge card of racing at GP and going nine-furlongs on the main track, it serves as a perfect prep for both the Hals Hope and the SSM Classic, depending on where you were bred. Featuring an evenly matched field of seven, a trio of sophomores taken on four older runners including a former winner of this race and a previous Grade III winner who might have fallen a notch as of late but still packs a punch at this level of competition.
1-Slew City Dreamer (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Hambletonian Stable)
Slew City Dreamer is a solid gelding who was good at GP over the Spring before being purchased for only $8.000 in September and while his two starts for the new barn have been solid, there is still room for improvement and he might find this level just a little too tough. Dropping from the $75.000 to the $15.000 level going short was a tough pill to swallow but he did respond with a win going long again, which might signal a return to form at this added distance if the pace is solid.
Analysis-Inside run will allow him the ideal trip
Fair Odds-10/1
2-Rajivs Roadblock (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
After going winless at two, Rajivs Roadblock came into his last race with three wins in five starts but after trying to go with some top runners in the Millions Classic Preview, he moves down to a more suitable level and could be in a better state to contend for the win. GP has been good to him since he broke his maiden here and a workout over the track was lightning quick; add in a weight break and this horse could rebound with a nice effort here, and a top three placing.
Analysis-Nicely suited in this return to a more modest level
Fair Odds-5/1
3-Rocket Man (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Downwind Stables)
Rocket Man won for $20.000 last March and became a Grade III winner right off the claim and this year, has followed that up with multiple Graded Stakes placings and a big win coming in that could make him the favourite, despite it being on the turf. His effort in the Hanshin Cup, while sixth, is good enough to win this race and he showed a great turn-of-foot last time out with a speed rating that puts him squarely as a top contender.
Analysis-Turf to dirt angle is used to full effect here
Fair Odds-4/1
4-Royal Observatory (Six-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)
Royal Observatory is winless in seven starts this campaign but has not been without his merits and off a second in the Brubaker and a third, beaten only a half-length, in the Ack Ack Handicap at CD, he at least warrants some respect as a threat from off the pace. The only concern is that his running styles vary so much, it becomes tough to decide which six-year-old will show up; then again, as a former winner of this race, he knows the track and how to win and that should count for at least something.
Analysis-Former winner seems to headed in the right direction
Fair Odds-3/1
5-Special Component (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
A top three finisher in eight straight starts dating back to last July, Special Component has been carefully handled by Mb Stables as others in their stable have taken up the mantle and now, he finally gets a chance to shine after a dazzling trio of ten-furlong races at SAR and GG. Speed ratings might not have been great but he showed good enterprise the entire distance and looks the best suited to handle the distance; a huge asset against horses who have struggled to finish off their races as of late.
Analysis-Looks to be in great stead for the distance
Fair Odds-9/2
6-Dawn Ride (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-RNP Stables)
Dawn Ride has not really been a solid threat for the win in any of his last three starts and after finishing third at big odds last time at AQU, he ships down for a tougher test and while his speed ratings are good, he still needs to show much more. Failure to close into the late pace off solid fractions is a big cause of concern, especially if the fractions are slow, and workouts at three-furlongs are not enough to get him fit for a big test, leaving him with a fitness deficit that might be tough to overcome.
Analysis-Has not really had that spark
Fair Odds-12/1
7-Homeoffarleysdevil (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Hambletonian Stable)
The only recent stakes winner and a solid colt at both three and four, Homeoffarleysdevil closed for third on the turf at GG last time and tries the dirt for the first time in more than 18 months as a way to see if he can finally handle the surface. Throw out that effort over a good turf and you have a colt with 90+ speed ratings dating all the way back to April 2014 but many of those were on the grass and on dirt, it is a completely different ballgame and one that will be a wait-and-see from this handicapper before backing him with authority.
Analysis-Will beat me on dirt if he is good enough
Fair Odds-6/1
Overall
Older runners seem to have an edge in the CC Jewel and Royal Observatory, a winner as a four-year-old, looks to be coming into this race with the right form that could make a minor favourite over a very evenly matched field. Rocket Man has been solid his entire career and one last time out with a big speed rating so look for him in second while Special Component has been handled with caution by owner Mb Stables but cannot be discounted despite a lack of experience at this level, especially after a huge win going long at GG in his last.
Prediction
Win-Royal Observatory (3/1)
Place-Rocket Man (4/1)
Show-Special Component (9/2)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
