January 15, 2016

Much like the rest of the SM, the Distaff has usually attracted a large and competitive field but as the purses have waned, so has the interest and only five fillies and mares will line up at GP on Saturday afternoon for a $200.000 purse. Won in the past but such standouts as Inanimate Object, Catachresis, Dont Speak and Mrs Bombastic, it gets a bevy of stakes winners including the winner of the Mother Goose and CCA Oaks last season and as such, weight could play the deciding factor despite the fact that it is only a seven-furlong race.

1-Key West Minibus (Five-year-old black mare / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

First or second in eight of nine starts last year, Key West Minibus makes a big jump in class off two solid stakes efforts and cannot be overlooked as a minor threat in the Distaff at this testing seven-furlong distance. Speed on the inside could be dangerous with the highweights to the outside and coming off a career-best speed rating, she certainly looked like she has the right form cycle and recent races to fall back upon.

Analysis-Inside run will help her speedy style

Fair Odds-4/1

2-High Percentage (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Maverick Racing)

Second by a nostril in the Ashland to a multiple Grade I winner, High Percentage never really stepped up to that level towards the end of her three-year-old campaign and off a tiring third in the Dream Supreme at CD, she will now look to ration that early speed and hold on for another furlong in this tougher field. Speed ratings are lower than others and she lacks the experience at this level to really contend for the win; couple those factors with a distance that might not be suited and she has to be considered a longshot to win, especially if the inside runner gets the jump.

Analysis-Might be quicker than others but needs more stamina

Fair Odds-10/1

3-Shes A Dog (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Wolfs Den)

Shes A Dog started off 2015 on the right foot with a win in the Ginger Brew at this same track but did not win again for more than 11 months and now, will try to double up with a return back into stakes competition. She came charging from off the pace in her initial dirt start more almost six months and will certainly get pace to chase from the inside; the only question is her ability to handle this class level and although she has done well in the past, it has never been enough to warrant her a win chance.

Analysis-In good form but might find the class too tough

Fair Odds-8/1

4-Ulster Star (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Running Bear)

Ulster Star was a big claim for Running Bear off a blowout win last August at AP and since then, has two wins from four starts including a score in the Lass Stakes at FG that ranks as one of the best in the entire field. She has been able to close into the pace at a longer distance recently but gets back to a sprint, and quicker early splits, here and will need to draw on that experience going short last Summer to really make her presence felt.

Analysis-Impressive at FG last time and looks like a big chance

Fair Odds-3/1

5-Behrens Bride (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Big Jd Racing)

Duel Grade I winner Behrens Bride tried to put herself back in the hunt for year-end honours with a win in the La Brea but she came up less than a length short and now, starts her four-year-old campaign at the same distance against a field that is much easier. Speed ratings in her last two are the best in the field and the only knock against her is the weight; it is very difficult for the best to carry 130 pounds to victory, let alone a filly who had a tough time against great horses at SA last time out.

Analysis-Outside post will give her a chance but the weight is imposing

Fair Odds-5/2

Overall

On talent alone, Behrens Bride should be a solid winner of the SSM Distaff but the huge impost against older talented fillies and mares makes her vulnerable and while she will be my top selection, there are others who could play spoiler. Ulster Star comes in off a big win at FG and will enjoy the cutback to a distance that should be ideal for her while Key West Minibus has been rock solid for quite a while now and get the inside track to flaunt her speed; both could be dangerous in a highly entertaining event that should serve as a good gauge for the older fillies and mares this year.

Prediction

Win-Behrens Bride (5/2)

Place-Ulster Star (3/1)

Show-Key West Minibus (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded