The Alabama – Grade I
SAR Race #8 1 1/4m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $600.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
The three year olds in general seem to be a little behind their domination of previous years but as we approach the BC we must start to weed out the ones that will mount a challenge in the BC. This is a great race with some of the best fillies around and the winner may well emerge as the main challenger for the younger generation.
Here is how they line up for a race that has produced the BC Distaff winner for the last two years:
1 Intolerable Mb Stables Moran D
One of two from the champion trainer, they have a way of working out these instructions with more than one runner so i would’ve thought at least one of their entries will be involved in the finish. This one gets the rail which will certainly help her on pace running style and i suspect she will be in the first two groups of what will inevitably be a race of four groups. She is one of the most consistent horses at HRP placing in the top three in all her 14 races and picking up over $700 in purse money. Third in the CCA Oaks last time behind Naples she has a bit to find on that filly and i am not sure this extra furlong will help her much. Certain to be in at the finish but she may have to settle for another place.
2 Naples Arindel Garcia Mar
After seeing what this filly has done in the CCA Oaks and the KY Oaks it remains a mystery as to why she ran so badly in the BEL. We must, with no other reasonable explanation put that run down to her wide draw and now she is back against her own sex i would expect her to take another giant leap towards a Breeders Cup. The winner of 7 from 12 including three grade ones she has changed hands for $1.2K and $750 since being bred by Mo Mentum Farm so is as much a money spinner for HRP as she has been for her owners. She has beaten everything in this field sometimes multiple times with the minor exception of Hot Summer who managed to finish just in front of her in the DEL Oaks when she may still have been getting over her run in the BEL. The perfect draw and the obvious winning choice
3 Slim Trim And Grim Wood Duck Stables Fukumoto D
Well the stable throws this filly in here without the same sort of form as most of the field but they have been getting some good results recently and she gets in with a great draw to try and topple some heavyweights. There is very little to suggest she has a chance of beating the likes of Naples but her work times are just as good and she comes off a winning run last time out when she took a big ticket allowance. If the HRP Gods are still favoring this stable that recently got their first grade one winner then she could be a shock winner.
4 Soviet Sensation Mb Stables Ortiz I Jr
The second stable runner she has something to find on Naples but form is easily turned upside down at HRP and i wouldn’t be writing her off especially as the stable has a chance to use the instructions to help at least one of their runners. This filly would be far from a shock winner after her GP Oaks win and her very strong finish in the MTH Oaks last time. Bought for less than $20 she has been a great buy and has been consistently in the 90’s speed figures since breaking her maiden. I think she will love this 10 furlongs and look for her to be finishing hard late on.
5 Shining Moments RNP Stables Pennington F
Two from two as a two year old she has certainly been a force as a three year old winning the Mother Goose among good efforts in behind Naples. There doesn’t seem to be a way i can see that she can turn the table on Naples but of you ignore her run in the CCA Oaks after she was given the wide draw and sacrificed on the lead she was on a great run of form that saw three wins in a row culminating in that Mother Goose win. She will do much better today and i expect her to be battling it out for one of the minor prizes.
6 Mag Ol Greyfriars Stable Karamanos HA
After being claimed for just $8 Team 7 Illusions managed to get this filly winning the FG Oaks just two races later and then moved her along for a $392 profit as Greyfriars Stable moved in. The new stable was hoping that was the start of something big and whilst they wont be thrilled by two defeats since she has shown enough promise in those two efforts to at least justify that sort of price tag. Running on late in the Acorn she then went on to run on late again in the Mother Goose but this time managed to reach second place. She seems to lack early pace which is a real problem under this current race engine so the stable will be desperate for either a slower early pace so she can get a decent start or that a new instruction may convince her to start better and stay more handy.
7 Hot Summer D J C Racing Stables Geroux F
Beaten by Mag Ol in the FG Oaks, then a few of these in the KY Oaks she then beat Naples in the DEL Oaks a feat most of these are incapable of. That is just an example of the impossible web of form that can happen at HRP and whilst that can lead to frustration we have to try and look at the balance of form against factors such as possible race pace, going, draw and jockey before we really get anywhere with working out the winner. So where does that put this filly? Well we know she is capable as she was narrowly beaten in the BC Juvenile last year and has won at grade two level this year. We know she can go on any ground condition and we know she can beat the best in the field so that may make her the biggest danger to Naples and if there is one to upset the field it may be her.
8 Ginger Lee Nakamura Stables Court J K
Behind Hot Summer in the Summertime Oaks she took the Iowa Oaks last time in the same race time she was defeated previously so we could probably put that defeat down to the trip she got. In the Summertime Oaks she led but was taken on the whole way and eventually faded whereas in the Iowa Oaks she got a comfortable stalk and found plenty at the end. The draw will make it very tough for her to find the same nice trip today but she is a progressive sort who has it all in front of her and it would be no surprise to see her in at the finish.
9 Dan Patch Waldo Husbands P
A grade three winner at two and three she is a good sort but is yet to prove herself against this caliber of fillies. She has great off track form and that may see her best chance of getting into the finish today but even if the ground comes up firm she may still give some cheek. The draw wont make anything easy for her against this opposition so she may need some favors from the race engine to get into this but if she does she is capable of making herself known.
10 Sensual Eruption Smokey Stover Bejarano R
The king of the fillies gets a rough deal from the draw monster in this race with both their entries getting wide draws. One feels this may be the best of the two but they are pretty evenly matched and whilst the draw makes things very tough you cannot write anything off from this stable. Last time out she took the IND Oaks making all and just holding on by a neck. She had the subsequent MTH Oaks winner Secret Eyes behind that day along with her stable companion Illusive Moves and one feels that her best chances may lay in similar tactics for this race. Of course with those sort of tactics this draw may prove very tough as she will have to clear the field very quickly to have a realistic chance.
11 Illusive Motives Smokey Stover Franco M
It is clear in looking at this fillies form that the trainer has been playing with instructions or they haven’t and she just doesn’t have early pace at this level. Twice a winner at overnight level by making all the running she has since run two good places in graded company by running off the leaders pace. That would suggest to me that she has been running on pace instructions rather than positional ones so that may make this post position even more difficult. On form she looks a progressive sort who is moving up her improvement curve which is a good thing at this time of year. She does have a bit to find with both her stable companion and Secret Eyes who beat her in the MTH Oaks last time so only time will tell as to whether she is improving fast enough to turn the tables on those two.
12 Secret Eyes Arindel Baird E T
A grade one winning two year old things looked to be going well for her as she ran well in the FG Oaks and then won the Gazelle but it all fell apart a little in the KY Oaks when she ran a poor race from a good draw. That effort remains a bit of a mystery as she has since given a good account in the Black Eyed Susan, the IND Oaks and the MTH Oaks since but did run another poor race in the Acorn in amongst them. There is clearly a consistency problem there and this very wide draw wont help her here. A chance at her very best but that must be taken on trust.
13 Lady Narloff TwinTowersRacing Sanchez M J
The car park is reserved for TwinTowersRacing with their entry. Now it would be easy to write her off because of the draw but this trainer knows how to overcome the odds and they look to have an improving filly here who may just be capable of running a big race despite her disadvantage. A good second in the Selene she then ran an absolute cracker in the grade one CCA Oaks to be second to Naples and in front of Intolerable. Now she is improving quickly but she still has a length to find on Naples from a terrible draw and whilst she may have a chance if things go her way it is hard to see a path where she can beat that filly.
SUMMARY
What a lovely race this looks with Naples looking to solidify her spot at the top of the three year old fillies tree but plenty of wannabe’s ready to de throne her. The draw has been very kind to Naples so i have to put her on top but picking second and third is far more complicated. You have to expect Mb Stables to be involved in those positions with at least one of their two fillies and there are plenty of chances outside them with the likes of Mag Ol, Hot Summer and Shining Moments. So much however will depend on the pace of this race and if we end up with a rabbit or at the very least a fast early pace it could bring in the wide draws such as Smokey Stovers two runners and Lady Narloff.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
