El Camino (Grade 3) (KYD)- $200.000 Purse
For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
February 13, 2016
Ten KYD points are on the line for the winner of Saturday’s El Camino. While we are still young into the KYD prep-race season, any opportunity to seize points now can be crucial come the first Saturday in May. That draws what was initially a full field (now down to eleven due to a scratch) of talented three year olds looking to assert themselves in this chase. Last year, we had two winners, as there was no separating Macht Nichts and Shed A Tear. Only one trainer has won this race more then once, and that would be Emerald Racing Inc, who won with Like Now in 2009, a horse that would go on to win the PRK that season. Then, in 2014, Emerald returned to the winners circle with Chonburi. L A Mawing has ridden three El Camino winners to be at the top of the jockey leaderboard. This is an interesting race that only has one in the field that ran in the BC Juvenile, the rest are looking to state their case on Saturday. Let’s meet the field!
#1- High Pride (Mb Stables, ridden by L A Mawing)- The jockey looks to win his fourth El Camino Stakes, and has a good mount to try and do this with. High Pride has been brought along patiently by Mb Stables, and it wasn’t until a win at RP that he would look like a high quality stake horse. The trainer did put him in the Grade 2 Nashua after that win, but that race did not go over well. Never one to back down, the trainer kept with him and placed him in the $250.000 Springboard Mile, and he would win the race! Hoping that would be a true springboard, it was off to the Smarty Jones last month, and he would be tenth. Is inconsistency a problem with this horse? Might be too early too tell, but it is worth keeping an eye on.
#2- For The Record (Barcelona Farms, ridden by Ru Gonzalez)- After taking four starts to break his maiden, For The Record has not known how to do anything but win. He comes into the race having won three straight, a streak that began in a CD maiden to his most recent triumph, coming in the $100.000 CA Derby, where he shocked the field at odds of 56/1 last month. He has not faced the kind of company that he will see today yet, but I do think he is going to like the distance, as longer may be better for him. It’s possible that he might need a race against this type of quality field before he shows his best potential.
#3- Lucky Santa (Aer Stables, ridden by D G Lopez)- As a yearling, Lucky Santa was passed around between trainers like the ugly sweater Christmas gift that no one wanted. Eventually, a week before Christmas in 2014, he ended up with BomBay Stables, who raced him a few times before selling him again, this time to Aer Stables. Liking what he saw, the new trainer promptly put the colt in the Grade 2 Remsen, which at the time was a significant jump up in class. Lucky Santa ran competitively there, finishing 4th of eleven. He will need to build on that just a little to have a chance here, but I like the fact that he hasn’t raced in a couple months. I expect that Aer Stables has him ready to fire a big one and look for him to be a threat here.
#4- Black Mach One (Smokey Stover, ridden by R A Baze)- Smokey Stover recently paid a big price, to the tune of $600.000, to get this KYD contender in his barn. The sale came as a surprise to me, as former trainer Gdp Inc seemed to be very high on Black Mach One when he was a two year old, frequently complimenting him in the forum. The horse seemed to be delivering, and this led to a berth in the BC Juvenile. Black Mach One is the only horse in this field who ran in that race, and he would place fifth missing by a length. While the finishes were going backwards a bit late in the 2015 season, he’s always seemed to be on good form. So, enter Smokey Stover, who looks to cash in on his investment. It was a good sale price, and will be interesting to watch whether or not it comes back to haunt Gdp Inc. I still like this horse quite a bit, but am going to pass on making him one of my top picks.
#5- Rising Light (Nakamura Stables, ridden by W Antongrgi III)- This newly gelded three year old is one of a handful coming out of the Grade 3 Jerome to this race, but his result was the most disappointing out of any of them. The 10th place run in that race snapped a streak where he had won three of four, including the $75.000 McNeil Stakes. In the Jerome, he was noticeably gaining towards the end of the race, and with this race being a little longer, perhaps there is more promise then one may think based on that effort. The trainer was not satisfied, and gelded him later that day. Now, will he be inspired to perform better now that he knows his trainer means business? He’s not one of my top picks, but it will be interesting to see how the geld helps.
#6- Sunny Gabe (LionKing Stables, ridden by F Alvarado)- On the same day that Rising Light and others here were racing in the Jerome, Sunny Gabe was taking part in a $13.000 Starter Allowance at GG, and finished second. Since he had already been gelded by that point, the former trainer, The A Stable, opted to sell him, and he was picked up by the current trainer for $46.170 about three weeks ago. This will be their first race together, but LionKing is already making a big change with the horse in moving him off the turf and onto the main track. We shall see how this pans out, but I believe this going to be a very astute move on the part of the trainer and it will ultimately pay off. The El Camino is a big step forward, but he might surprise some people. If his odds get high on race day, take a shot.
#7- Winning Barbarino (Red Square Stables, ridden by K Frey)- Here’s another one that will be racing as a gelding for the first time, having undergone the procedure earlier this week. It hasn’t been that long since his last race, and in fact, this will be the third start of 2016 for the Barbarino foal. He’s also come out of the Jerome, and looked good in a fourth place finish, but he was not able to carry that over into the Grade 2 Holy Bull just two weeks ago, and placed sixth of eight. He is working well coming into this race, so if the geld is a secret potion to get Winning Barbarino winning like Barbarino would, then he can be a contender here. Like Rising Light, it will be interesting to see the impact of the geld.
#8- Blue Guy (Grimley, ridden by A Gomez)- The Lil Guy foal has seen himself be sold three times already, with the dollar amounts being in the triple digits each time. Most recently, he was purchased by Grimley from Rouge River Stables for $373.000. Add the three sale prices together, and you get a combined $720.000. That’s a lot of money for a horse that has only generated one win and $66.000 in career earnings in four starts. Most recently, he raced in the Grade 3 Lecomte and flashed the potential that several trainers have seen, finishing third and earning an SRF of 96. He is beautifully conformed, so it may just be a matter of time before he starts living up to the dollar amounts that have surrounded him so far. This is an important race for this colt and the trainer will have him ready to roll. I like his chances.
#9- Mach Force (Eastern Equine, ridden by J J Hernandez)- The second of two foals by Plucky Mach in this field, Mach Force is another one that was bred by Gdp Inc but is now in the hands of another stable. Eastern Equine purchased him as an unraced two year old in August of last year, and he is still lightly raced, with just two starts to his credit. Both of those races ended up in wins, the first being a maiden event, but for his second start, he was advanced to the $125.000 Display Stakes, and he would win that by a length. He earned a 93 SRF in that late November race and will be fresh to run here. Recent works are looking real good and Eastern Equine should have a good opportunity to win this stake for the second year in a row, but perhaps not in a dead heat.
#10- Southern Cal (Alydar Stables, ridden by C Martinez)- Despite his name, Southern Cal has spent most of his time racing in New York in state bred events, most of which were at FL. That is where he has picked up his two wins so far, the last of which was a five length rout. That inspired the trainer to place Southern Cal higher, and he would next race in the $75.000 McNeill Stakes at RP. He would be third that day while Rising Light, of whom he sees again, visited the winners circle. His next and most recent race also saw him finish third by two lengths, coming in the $100.000 CA Derby. For the record, the winner that say was For The Record, of whom he also sees again here. The trainer remains optimistic in his placement, but he will have to show some improvement to contend here.
#11- Mugarooni (Mo Mentum Farm, ridden by J Couton)- On the outside, we have a case of a trainer taking an aggressive shot with a horse and hoping for the best. Mugarooni is coming off a win in his last start, a FL-bred MSW, where he won by four lengths. Despite that, he only earned an 89 SRF for that race, and it will take more then that to get the job done here. However, do not abandon all hope in this gelding as it was the first race for the new trainer after being claimed for just $10.000. He’s put together some nice works as of late, and if the trainer has stumbled on something privately that could improve him a few tenths, the Mugarooni can be in the thick of it.
#12- Pentagon- Scratched. Possible case of Outside Postitis.
Prediction: 4-9-2-8
— NS
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
