February 19, 2016

The first real race on the road to the Grade I KYD comes Saturday afternoon at FG and the $400.000 Risen Star Stakes, carrying a Grade II designation and 50 points to the winner, has attracted a full field of 12 with two on the also eligible list and as such, could go any which way over the unforgiving FG main track. Originally the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes as a prep for the LA Derby, it was won in 1988 by the aforementioned Risen Star and now carries a huge following with real-life winners including Dollar Bill, Repent, Lawyer Ron and Mucho Macho Man.

Run since 2005 at HRP, 2007 saw its first big winner in Fusion, who would win the KYD in the same year, and along the way, the likes of KYD runner-up Laffin Policeman, Grade I winners Sector Seven and Latest Mach, and 2015 winner Pinnacle West, have proven best with many good horses failing to win but going on to huge careers. This year, the BC Juvenile winner appears but looks vulnerable against many Graded Stakes winners and it could all come down to post position and early speed as many from the outside will be jockeying for positions in the short run into the first turn.

1-End Game (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Lc Racing Inc.)

End Game was a big maiden winner over this same course last time out but while the final time was good, the final speed rating was not as good as it could have been and he will need to be faster from the rail if he hopes to wire this overflow field. He sprinted clear around the far turn but as all out to win and if he cannot get a clear lead up front, he will be hard pressed to hang on when the closers come charging down the lane.

Analysis-Needs a clear lead to prove his best

Fair Odds-15/1

2-Carneyman (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Broken Spoke Stables)

Carneyman was probably the most unlikely winner on BC Weekend with his score at nearly 20-1 in the Juvenile but he was unable to duplicate that form in the Grade II Remsen at AQU and will have to improve in his first start of the year to really make his presence felt. He sat off a very quick pace at KEE and capitalized but three-year-olds tend to be a little more patient and unless the pace up front developed, he might be left with too much to do if he gets stuck inside with no room to get clear.

Analysis-Should rebound with the right pace set-up

Fair Odds-6/1

3-Moment Of Madness (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

Sire Zero Return was purchased at auction for a massive $600.000 earlier this month but can justify that price if Moment Of Madness can double up Saturday off his big win in the Lecomte and with a massive 97-speed rating, he ranks as the best last-out entrant with a huge future ahead of him. Impressive at FL, cautiously second at DMR then unleashed last time over this course, he looks to be coming into this race huge and should be a factor early, with only a lack of running room stopping him for a big win.

Analysis-Looks the part of a future star

Fair Odds-4/1

4-Prime Time Opus (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Aer Stables)

Although he has raced well enough to compete against this class of field, Prime Time Opus is really a maiden winner at best with only minor success against similar and without a win over the dirt, it will be hard to back him for victory, especially facing the top two from his last. Workouts have been average and while the stable has been good enough to produce a KYD winner in the past, he might just be waiting for more distance and that will come on Saturday, and later on in the season.

Analysis-Should appreciate the slightly longer distance

Fair Odds-10/1

5-Water Mummy (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Downwind Stables)

Grade I DMR Futurity and BC Juvenile cheque getter Water Mummy came rocketing home when making his seasonal debut in the Swale at GP and now, gets back to a route of ground and should definitely appreciate the change in distance. Of course, he will need to find himself closer to the pace than last at the head of the lane, like he did at KEE, but all indications point to more early speed from this son of Mummy and he should be a major player in the late stages if workouts are any sign.

Analysis-Started off 2016 right and looks to build momentum

Fair Odds-9/2

6-Jolly Charley (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Asgar)

Second three times in allowance and state-bred stakes events Jolly Charley has good breeding in his corner but takes a huge leap from the LA Legacy to this tough Grade II event and will need to find that final push to hit the board. He has only cracked the 90-speed mark twice in his career and both were in losing efforts and while his last effort was solid, he is still unproven going two-turns and will most likely use this as a building block rather than a serious race for the TC trail.

Analysis-Tests the deep waters and might need the race

Fair Odds-20/1

7-Mystery Boy (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Heavens Own)

Two big wins and a second since being gelded show that Mystery Boy is going in the right direction but that last effort came at more than 18-1 and if you did not have him then, do not back him at much lower odds against this decidedly tougher field. He could easily have stayed at OP for races like the Rebel and the AR Derby but came to FG instead and with workouts that are slower than others, it will be a wait and see approach for this handicapper on a gelding who might be a big player come year end.

Analysis-Has solid closing ability in a speedy field

Fair Odds-8/1

8-Bright Castle (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Downwind Stables)

Bright Castle was a huge purchase off his second in the Lecomte and multiple wins in NY-bred stakes company and could make back much of that price for owner Downwind Stables with a score in the Risen Star. Toss out a tiring finish in the DED Jackpot and you have a colt who has hit the board in his last eight starts and with two huge workouts going one-mile at SA, he certainly has the fitness and the talent to compete on this level, and win.

Analysis-Will appreciate a stalking trip

Fair Odds-5/1

9-Cozzene Lyphard (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Kingelleinc)

The addition of Lasix at GG helped Cozzene Lyphard to two big wins going long but now he ships across to FG and catches a big field; factors that will increase his odds and his chances of taking down a piece of the purse. A change in jockey will certainly help him, as will a series of workouts over the strip, and while he might be lightly raced, there is lots of like with him going two-turns and he could be sitting nicely outside with clear room to run down the lane.

Analysis-Continued improvement will see him make a big impression

Fair Odds-10/1

10-City Grounds-SCRATCHED

11-Swift Flyer (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-M.b.o. Racing Stable)

Swift Flyer has two wins to his credit and both came over less than fast tracks so his prognosis over a quick surface is still in question, even with a third in the Nashua and a nose second in the Jerome to start off his season. Speed figures in the mid 90’s are some of the best in the field and he always seems to be right there, whether it is a winning effort or a losing one; add in a blistering workout in preparation and this colt adds another intriguing element from the outside to an already amazing field.

Analysis-Always seems to be in the hunt at this level
Fair Odds-6/1

12-Box Of Rain (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)

Regally bred but only a maiden winner in the slop at KEE, Box Of Rain closed to be second last time out at GP and makes his three-year-old debut in the Risen Star off a series of solid workouts in Florida. He was able to close into the pace going two-turns last time out while earning a career-best speed rating but there is still much to be proven from this colt and with an outside draw, he will need to expend more early than he would like and that could leave him short in the stretch.

Analysis-Will need the start at this level before he becomes competitive

Fair Odds-20/1

13-Edwin Drood (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)

Tested in stakes company, and even favoured last time out in the Smarty Jones at OP, Edwin Drood has been unable to take down more than an optional claiming event and now, steps back up in class with the farthest stall to overcome. Owner Sanny Village has not had the best start to 2016 and this could be a breakthrough weekend for them but with this gelding, you get the feeling that he is not in the same league as others and will hope to drop back down into lower ranks in search of some much needed confidence.

Analysis-Stalling form and an outside post spell longshot

Fair Odds-25/1

Overall

There are a lot of logical options in the Grade II Risen Star at FG on Saturday afternoon and the start of the KYD push gets going with a field of 12 going 1 1/16 miles, with Lecomte winner Moment Of Madness leading the charge for top owner Mb Stables. His score last time out really proves that he can step up to the big leagues and that is why he gets the top spot over likely third choice Bright Castle, who missed after setting all the pace, with Grade I winner Water Mummy splitting the difference after his brilliant seasonal debut in the Swale as an excellent stepping stone.

Prediction

Win-Moment Of Madness (4/1)

Place-Water Mummy (9/2)

Show-Bright Castle (5/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES