February, 27, 2016

The Grade III Canadian Turf starts off the march to the Grade I BC Mile and this year, features the defending Mile champion as well as a few other stars including the winner of this race last year, in a shocker at more than 44-1. As a standard handicap, everyone carries the same 124-pound impost and that will make things much more interesting, with the chance for the stars to get on even footing with the challengers before the big race down the line even the odds a little more.

1-Moonlight Dreams (Four-year-old black colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

A multiple allowance winner going short but second in stakes company going this one-mile trip, Moonlight Dreams was only third of four when starting off his second at HOU and now, steps up in class to tackle the best of his division. Speed ratings are solid but have fallen off in the last few attempts and now, he gets an inside track to stalk and pounce, if he is good enough to close at a distance that has not been effective before.

Analysis-Uncharted territory at this one-mile trip

Fair Odds-15/1

2-Sir Tom (Five-year-old gray horse / Owner-Brave)

Sir Tom upset the BC Mile at nearly 25-1 last year to cap a three-win season and push past $2500.000 in career earnings; now, he tries to start his year off on a winning note and in this field, he has both the class and distance advantage over many. Multiple triple-digit speed ratings show his class all the way back to this time last year and the only knock against him is a lack of workouts, with only one every three months as necessary.

Analysis-Grade I winner comes in off a layoff with big expectations

Fair Odds-5/2

3-Lucky Spaniard (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner- Nakamura Stables)

Lucky Spaniard cut back to a flat-mile in the Coady and came through with a big win that sets himself up for a big run here but he might not be fast enough on paper and will need to find the right set-up late in order to hit the board. He has not cracked the 100-speed mark as of yet but seems to enjoy the turf and will hope to sit just off the early pace and close into the speed, which should be coming from the outside around the tight GP turf.

Analysis-Excellent workouts set him up for a big effort

Fair Odds-8/1

4-Hold The Mach (Six-year-old black gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

SSM Turf Sprint winner Hold The Mach had an excellent 2015 with three wins and more than $500.000 in earnings and that debut win by a nose makes him a logical contender to stretch back out and really close from the back of the pack. A game second in the Shadwell Turf Mile and a winner of the Connaught Cup going seven-furlongs, this should be a perfect distance for him and he looks to have plenty of chances to win as he builds on what could be a $1000.000 career by the end of the year.

Analysis-Keeps showing up with big efforts

Fair Odds-4/1

5-Stormy Passing (Six-year-old bay gelding / Owner-C. R. Racing)

Since being gelded last June, Stormy Passing has won five of his last seven starts including a dead-heat win at FG in his last but the big efforts have come in optional claiming and starter company and now, he hopes to step up for a big chance at stakes company. Six-furlong workouts have been his specialty and he knows how to close from midpack but he does not seem to be quick enough down the lane and unless he gets a pace set-up, he might be one of those closing but not for the win.

Analysis-Closer needs to be quicker down the lane

Fair Odds-15/1

6-Hulk Hogan (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)

Sold last September for more than $200.000, Hulk Hogan comes back to the races after four-months on the shelf and looks to regain the form he had after winning the Oceanside and finishing second in the DMR Mile after setting all the fractions. Speed is certainly on his side, either on the main track or over the turf, and he will hope to use that muscle to full advantage in what could be a wire-to-wire win for the lightly raced four-year-old.

Analysis-Big shot if he can set reasonable splits

Fair Odds-5/1

7-Pink Star (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Eastern Equine)

A couple of wins as the favourite last year saw Pink Star move up in company but he started off 2016 with a lackluster effort going long in the Jerkens and now, sets his sights on shorter races that will help him keep closer early. High 90’s speed ratings are good enough to finish on the board but he gets an outside stall and will need to put himself in the race early if he hopes to save some ground and keep enough left in the tank for the drive.

Analysis-The move back to one-mile will help

Fair Odds-10/1

8-Silver Bullet (Six-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Joseph Racing)

With multiple Grade I wins on his past performances and nine career wins over the turf, Silver Bullet is an excellent gelding with amazing credentials and a win in the Canadian Turf will continue his career in the right direction, especially if he gets any kind of a slower pace than he did at FG. He tired as expected after six-furlongs in sub-1:09 speed and now, can sit closer to a more modest pace with hopes of lasting to the wire in what is a reachable field.

Analysis-Classy veteran will make his presence known

Fair Odds-3/1

9-Louisiana Flash (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Wolfs Den)

Two wins on turf and only one win going long mean that Louisiana Flash is not as accomplished on the grass as many in this field and with the outside stall, will be hard pressed to make any impact, especially if his last effort is an indication. He does get a returning jockey and that is a bit of a upside but he is not in the same league as many in both class and experience and will be fighting to finish in the top half of the field when all is said and done.

Analysis-Not a key player in this field

Fair Odds-30/1

Overall

The BC Mile winner takes the top selection in the Grade III Canadian Turf on Saturday and in Sir Tom, you have a consistent five-year-old who finished off last year with a bang but might need one start to really get going. Both Silver Bullet and Hold The Mach have that key start under their belt and could be dangerous at this level, with the former a Grade I winner who might going long last time out and the latter, the defending champion who scored going short and will be crying out for more distance now.

Prediction

Win-Sir Tom (5/2)

Place-Silver Bullet (3/1)

Show-Hold The Mach (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES