March 5, 2016

The Winkfield will be run for the eighth time on Sunday afternoon as the only stakes race of the day throughout HRP and while its purse, at $125.000, and its importance as a prep for the Grade I KYD might be undetermined, its historical reference cannot be overlooked in today’s day and age. Named for the last African American to pilot a Kentucky Derby winner, it is also named for a global racing pioneer who traveled to all corners of the world to race great horses and as such, certainly deserved to be considered as a key race for all those involved. Won in the past by Grade II victors American Wonder, Solar Display and Spanish Cat, its biggest winner was Grade I Vosburgh winner Speedballz and much like previous years, it once again features a field of allowance and maiden winners trying to step up their sprinting game before races like the Amsterdam and Kings Bishop at SAR.

1-Saphir du Rheu (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

Fourth in the Kings Swan in November and recently second in the WEBN going short at TP, Saphir du Rheu is sitting on a big effort at this six-furlong trip and could be the controlling speed from the rail if he so chooses. Prepped for this with some one-mile workouts, he has the stamina nonetheless and could be a huge choice going into the Summer and with his owner having a top class year already, look for continued improvement in his second start of the campaign.

Analysis-Inside speed could control things all the way

Fair Odds-3/1

2-Dont Chief It (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Double Cross Ranch)

Four wins in his last six starts have moved Dont Chief It all the way from the $5.000 ranks to stakes company and with a nose victory around the bullring at CT in his last, he looks to stretch his legs a little more in a move to NY that could be just what he needs. Stalking speed is also good with a leader to your inside and he could sit the perfect trip two-wide and capitalize late, if he can run back to that huge 94-speed rating.

Analysis-Impressive last time but this is a fair bit longer

Fair Odds-8/1

3-Final Tune (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Owner Mb Stables is winning about 2 in every 5 races and placing in 4 of every 5 so the likelihood that they will finish with a cheque in the Winkfield is almost laughable; with Final Tune, you get a lightly raced but undefeated three-year-old with a huge pedigree on his side who just went out and won a similar race over this same course and distance. Now, he gets a bigger field to face but still lands up with an inside draw and can use his stalking ability to sprint clear against rivals he has beaten in the past.

Analysis-The likely favourite when all is said and done

Fair Odds-2/1

4-Crush On Rita (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Cherrytree Hill Farm)

Crush On Rita certainly has the talent to win the Winkfield with an optional claiming win two back and a solid second in the Capossela behind the likely favourite and the key upside to him is that he will be making his second start on dirt, with marked improvement expected. He gets a weight break to his main rival and more importantly, more speed to chase and unless he gets caught behind rivals late, he should be good enough to at least make a move for a minor award.

Analysis-Improving and makes that second start on dirt

Fair Odds-6/1

5-Pip Blazing (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Aer Stables)

A maiden winner in six career starts and only second going long in his last at TAM, Pip Blazing makes a big jump in class here and based on his last effort sprinting, which was dismal at best, he has to be considered one of the longest shots in the field unless he can changed his focus. Workouts in preparation have been solid and that is a good sign but he does not look fast enough to compete and should be labouring at the end when others are just getting into gear.

Analysis-Looks to be overmatched as a sprinter

Fair Odds-25/1

6-Urban Decline (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Alydar Stables)

Urban Decline has raced against some very good horses at TAM in his last two starts and while he was a midpack finisher in both, he cannot be discounted here solely on those efforts and could surprise if he can find a bit of late momentum. Speed ratings have improved but stalled recently and his workouts suggest that he might be prepping for some longer races but for now, he races at this sprint level and is a middle chance at best against proven runners.

Analysis-This race is a means to an end

Fair Odds-15/1

7-Champ (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Champ has faced some very tough customers in his last three starts with limited success and now, moves in from state-bred company to tackle open level opponents at a distance that might put him at a pace disadvantage. He has raced at longer distances in an attempt to see if he is more of a route horse but that has been put on hold and while he has shown speed before, it might not be enough to contest the inside pace.

Analysis-Will be at the mercy of faster horses to his inside

Fair Odds-12/1

8-Iron Hk Seven (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Aer Stables)

A massive maiden winner at LAD three starts back, Iron Hk Seven has faced tougher going long at both BEL and GP and with the cutback in distance, will hope to harness his early speed and take on some of the tougher sprinters in his division. He seems to have been knocking at the door and has been well respected in nearly all of his starts but there is still something lacking and until he learns to close in the late stages, he is still a longshot prospect for this handicapper.

Analysis-Cuts back in distance in hopes to staying the course

Fair Odds-20/1

9-The Emerald City (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Pseven)

The Emerald City ended off 2015 with a big win at AQU as a huge 68-1 longshot but the time off will be a concern against more conditioned runners and he will have to step up his workouts if he hopes to hit the board from an outside gate. He is heavily raced compared to many with ten juvenile starts and finally got the break he needed but that might leave him short as he gets back into the swing of things and this race will be a test for bigger waters, or shallower waters, down the line.

Analysis-Comes back off the rest in a tough spot

Fair Odds-15/1

10-Noble Mou (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Alegria)

A second-out winner in maiden company after a long layoff, Noble Mou will try to make a big leap forward in the Winkfield with the addition of blinkers once again, and the confidence earned from that big win. He certainly looks like he has some speed but could be light on experience and the key is that his maiden score was not as impressive as it could have been, and the expected improvement might not be enough to overcome this tough field.

Analysis-Will improve but not enough for the win

Fair Odds-20/1

11-Gemini K (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Australia Wide)

The real wildcard in the Winkfield comes from one of the outside gates and with Gemini K, you have a gelding riding a two-race winning streak with scores at CD and GP who looks to continue his forward progress in a logical and specific manner. Speed ratings are some of the best in the field and most important, have come back-to-back and with that kind of talent, coupled with an off-the-pace style from a wide gate, he might be able to close best of all and upset the inside giants.

Analysis-Big shot to pounce from far back

Fair Odds-9/2

12-Sweetsmellofsuccess (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Axeman)

Sweetsmellofsuccess has been getting better with each and every start and from maiden win, to starter win, and now to stakes company, he has made a typical progression but catches a tough field for his added-money debut. The unfortunate part is that, while he has been winning, his speed ratings have been declining and he will need to step up against his level of company with the added heartache of an outside post to deal with as well.

Analysis-Speed ratings need to improve if he hopes to win

Fair Odds-15/1

Overall

The lone stakes winner in the Winkfield field commands most of the attention at the top of the table but Final Tune is lightly raced and could be at the mercy of more seasoned rivals if the field size gets to him in the latter stages. Saphir du Rheu has faced big fields in the past and gets the inside post to flaunt his speed but if the fractions are too quick or the pace is too contested, Gemini K is the most likely to come rocketing from off the pace and could be the best set-up to succeed in the end.

Prediction

Win-Final Tune (2/1)

Place-Saphir du Rheu (3/1)

Show-Gemini K (9/2)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded