March 11, 2016

The first real test for California sprinters on the road to the BC comes Saturday in the Grade II San Carlos, with a field of ten assembled to go a tricky seven-furlongs at SA for an increased purse of $300.000. Alpha Ultimo won the inaugural edition in 2005 as part of his incredible career, LionKing won in 2008 for the final stakes win to pad his near $4,000.000 bankroll and Cincinnati Kid proved best in 2010 at the favourite before adding three Grade I wins to his impressive resume as well. This year, you get a rematch of the 2015 Sprint with the one-two-four finishers from that amazing race; add in the BC Classic runner-up and the reigning Horse Of The Year, after winning the PRK and the Travers, and you have the best field of horses assembled for any race this year.

1-Trench Admiral (Four-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Grimley)

2015 Sprint Champion Trench Admiral made his 2016 debut with a ninth place finish in the Hooper at GP but will get to a fast main track on Saturday and certainly fair much better, even if he is making his first foray out to the West Coast. A duel Grade I winner including a few at this seven-furlong trip, he was second-best of 156 workers on March 3 and that kind of conditioning will work wonders from the rail if he can hold position and rocket home as he usually does.

Analysis-Tough to go against the reigning champ
Fair Odds-3/1

2-Wild Glory (Seven-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Paradise Stable)

Wild Glory is a back-to back winner of the Vigil Stakes going seven-furlongs at WO but those are his only stakes wins and at the age of seven, might be getting a little tired of chasing these high class sprinters around the track with only minor success. Fourth in the BC Sprint but second in the final furlong, he failed to gain any ground in the CAC Sprint over this same track last time out and declining speed ratings make it tough for him to back with confidence against such proven runners.

Analysis-Not the same horse outside of WO

Fair Odds-20/1

3-Chit Chat (Four-year-old black colt / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

Chit Chat earned nearly $1000.000 last season with two big wins and a bang-up second in the Sprint and a fourth in the Palos Verdes sets him up nicely for another big run with that extra furlong and the potential of a quick pace to chase. He removed Bute for his seasonal debut and races without it once again and that could be a costly change for him but he has proven himself in the past and will try to utilize some simple workouts to full advantage.

Analysis-Great to close out 2015 but equipment changes could hinder

Fair Odds-8/1

4-Oh Awesome One (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Axeman)

Purchased for just over $27.000 in December, Oh Awesome One was second in a pair of events including the Palos Verdes and now, races for new owners for the first time with eyes on earning back all of his $175.000 price. Speed ratings have been getting better but still rank below the triple-digit mark and with nearly 20-1 odds last time out, expect him to try and take command around the far turn with hopes of staying the course in that crucial final furlong.

Analysis-Still eligible for N1X and that makes him vulnerable

Fair Odds-15/1

5-A One (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Eastern Equine)

A One was one of the most talked about horses at HRP last year, with a win in the PRK followed by a $1400.000 purchase despite being a gelding, which led to more $1900.000 in earnings to close out the season AND a Horse Of The Year title. Now, he will try to build on his debut in the San Antonio by getting back to a seven-furlong sprint, like the Grade I Malibu which he dominated, and could be an imposing force in a number of divisions if owner Eastern Equine handles him like they know how.

Analysis-Gets an ideal post to stalk and pounce

Fair Odds-4/1

6-Brutal (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-La Rosa Stables)

Brutal became a stakes winner in the Salvator Mile and finished second in the Phoenix from well off the pace but the new connections are aiming higher with encouragement from his closing third in the Toboggan at AQU. He does own a win over the course last March and has some excellent workouts in his history but will be at the mercy of the pace and hopes that a middle post will allow him to close enough to take at least a piece of the purse.

Analysis-Seems to like closing as long as he has the opportunity

Fair Odds-12/1

7-Port On The Horizon (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Like many of the races this weekend, horses changing racing tactics or surfaces litter fields across the country and with Port On The Horizon, you get a multiple Grade II winner and BC Classic runner-up who scored the SSM Classic but cuts back to a sprint here for the first time since Septemer 2014. He looked amazing in a February 18 workout and gets a nice outside draw to sit and stalk but the distance will be the major question mark and he will have to overcome a quicker pace if he hopes to continue into a big four-year-old season.

Analysis-Classic horse will try to sprint

Fair Odds-6/1

8-Moon Landing (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)

Grade I Triple Bend winner Moon Landing has knocked at the door in nearly every start since with placings in the Forego, Vosburgh and BC Sprint but a second-place finish over an ultra-fast FG surface at the choice might leave him a little short of his best and he will have to improve in order to hit the board. He will be sitting back and making a run in the late stages at a distance that will certainly be to his advantage and while he might not be as quick as others, this is a race that can set him up for future races down the line.

Analysis-Looks to build on a big season and that could be a stepping stone

Fair Odds-8/1

9-Shelby Mustang (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)

As good as others in the field have done in recent history, Shelby Mustang is the top horse coming into the San Carlos with victories in the Midnight Lute and Palos Verdes in efforts that would suggest he is arguably the best closer in the field. Proven wins can be rare with such competitive fields but he looks to be the one with the most upside coming into this event and there is little doubt that he should be charging at the leaders late from a great spot.

Analysis-Closed for victory in his last two and should be closing again

Fair Odds-9/2

10-Impending Decision (Seven-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)

While Impending Decision also comes into the San Carlos on a hot streak, much like his inside rival, victories have come on the East Coast and he now ships clear across the country for a shot at this fourth straight win and that might leave him vulnerable against horses who know the course. Speed ratings have been consistent and quite good as of late but he is a seven-year-old and no horse of that age has won since LionKing and this gelding is not at that level just yet.

Analysis-Veteran has plenty going for him but needs that final push

Fair Odds-6/1

Overall

Look no further than the Sprint Champion when it comes to picking a winner in the Grade II San Carlos Stakes on Saturday afternoon and while Trench Admiral might not have impressed at GP in his seasonal debut, he should appreciate the return to a fast main track and has everything in his favour to win, from an inside gate to blazing speed. A One is the defending Horse Of The Year and was incredible in the Malibu two back so he rank a very close second while Shelby Mustang rides a hot streak at SA into this event and cannot be overlooked as a closer from a wide gate.

Prediction

Win-Trench Admiral (3/1)

Place-A One (4/1)

Show-Shelby Mustang (9/2)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES