Nothing says “Send me to Louisville” like spending the weekend one mile north of Juarez Mexico!  But, here we stand, ready to eat some fine TexMex in NM and plunk down a few pesos on a TC hopeful, and we look at the field for the 2016 SUN Derby (GIII).

I’m going to give the nod to Water Mummy here today.  I know he’s still looking for his first seasonal win but he was a close-up second in both of his starts and has been facing some real tough horses.

I’ll put For The Record in the second spot on my tickets.  He’s been sharp in all of his starts and just missed last out in the El Camino (GIII) at GG.  I like that he’s been the mile and an eighth distance and he should come at a big of a bargain price.

Brain Power has won all three of his lifetime starts and certainly looks solid, other than all of those races have been on the lawn.  His works on the main track don’t exactly scream at ya’, and his post is less than desirable… then again, we’re only looking for him to run third.

Here’s the field…

He’s lightly raced but has been tough as nails in every start including that DH runner-up finish in the El Camino (GIII) in NoCal, in his most recent start.  That was off of a fairly long lay-off, so his chances of improving off of that are good and his speed on the rail could be a big factor in this one.  He closed in his 2yo finale so he has some versatility to boot.

Broke maiden in his fourth start and they go right after the gusto here.  If you throw out his turf starts, he’s been 1-2 in this main track efforts, and that is what matters here today.  I think he will be double-digit odds, but I won’t be surprised if he pulls an upset in this one.

He’s won half of his life-time starts and actually has multiple wins over this surface, even if that last out win was vs. state-bred stakes horses.  He’s shown an ability to close from off of the pace, and there will be some pace to run at in this one.  Three wins in a row in something to admire!

Never worse than second in his short 3-start career but he only has the maiden win.  Then again he was very tough in the Southwest (GIII) and that race usually shows some talent.  He has every chance in the world to move up in class and could be a horse to be reckoned with in the late stages of this one.

Well… it seems to be heaven or hell with this one…  win/last/win/last…  but when he wins it’s something to behold!  I love that hard closing victory in the Davis Stakes (GIII) at TAM, but to follow that up with a tenth place finish in the Gotham (GIII) just makes you shake your head…  who do we get today?

He hasn’t had his picture taken since last Sept at DMR but has back to back runner-up finishes in the Swale and Risen Star, both GII events.  It looks like he might be sitting on a win if anyone is… so I’d give him a big look here today.

He’s had a hard time of it facing black-type horses but did get back to the winning ways last out taking a N1X Alw race at GP.  That may be a glimmer of hope but I just can’t get excited seeing his other efforts v. this type of horses.

Fair showing last out when fourth i the San Vincent (GII) at SA.  He tired badly in his only route race, running eleventh in the Breeders Futurity (GI) at KEE last year.  He just doesn’t hit me as two-turn horse and I think it’s going to be a long afternoon.

Just missed closing quickly in the late stages of the El Camino when he DH for 2nd in that race.  That busted up his 3-race win streak and he may be a horse with his best races in front of him.  He may have some odds as well, so don’t ignore him in the exotics.

Closed a late gap to be third in the Bataglia at TP and although he still only has the maiden win, he’s never been off of the board in his four starts.  Lightly raced but very game can spell upset in these races.

Sold for big bucks prior to that last out effort in the Risen Star (GII) where he looked hopelessly beaten when they turned for home and he closed like gang-busters late to only get beaten by a length.  That was a different  running style  but he certainly has to be given serious consideration here today.

His last couple of starts have been forgettable…  stopped badly in the Smarty Jones and then ran very evenly in the El Camino (GIII) in his most recent effort.  He comes from the big barn and I’m never surprised when they win but this looks tough.

Another from the Mb lineup and he’s been tough as nails in all three of his starts.  Yes, lightly raced, but that second in the Bataglia at TP surely turned a few heads.  He closed well late to get within a quarter length of the winner, so you have to think he’s eligible to improve.

Final horse that makes up the 3-headed Mb monster and they all got the outside posts.  He’s never lost in his three trips to the gate and it sure is a shame that he got shoved out into the far outside post.  He did a nice job closing in that last out mile and a sixteenth effort at HOU.  Those were all on the turf and now he tries the main track.

Has been declared from the race.

Has been declared from the race.

Would need some luck to draw into this one but after that eighth in the Bataglia, I’m not sure he wants any parts of this anyways.

Nice third place finish in the Davis (GIII) at TAM and he looks like a horse that may be making some noise down the road.  Keep an eye on him in an upcoming race.

            Willie’s Green Card    6  /  9  /  14

Categories: Grade III