LA Derby – Grade II [KYD]
FG Race #14 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Three Year Olds.
1 Cliffs Of Moher, trained by Mb Stables
Beat a small field in the Kingarvie Stakes as a two year old and whilst that didnt prove much
as far as his KYD chances are concerned it did show us that he had the stamina needed for these
type of races. A reappearence in The Jerome saw him at the back of the pack early on and then
running on late to be beaten only two lengths in eighth. In his last start he was given a confidence
boost at PRX where he easily took a two win allowance and set himself up for another tilt at Derby
qualification in this race. A great draw, some nice work times and the sort of form line that wins
make him a lively chance in what will be by definition a very open race.
2 Pentagon, trained by D J C Racing Stables
After two nice wins as a juvenile this colt was sold to Serenity Stables for $175 and promptly went
on to grade two victory in his very next race. That win was in the six and a half furlong Best Pal
Stakes but that was to be his last career win as he began to struggle in the top grade after that.
A close up fifth in the DMR Futurity was followed by a weak race in the Champagne and then a fair
run in the BC Juvenile. In all those races he looked like he was struggling to stay the trip and that
is possibly what made his owner sell him on again, this time to his current owner D J C Racing.There
looked to be some improvement from two to three as he came out to run a very close third in the Jerome
on seasonal debut but then looked a shade one paced in the Fountain Of Youth beaten a couple of lengths
into seventh. His works are very good but i still think that deep down this is a sprinter trying a
routers trip.
3 Clovis Ali, trained by Night Rider Stables
Won a state bred black type last year with a huge late run but looked outclassed when taking on graded
company in The Sham Stakes next time. A nice sort who has worked well enough but i dont think he can
bother these today.
4 Coup De Lyon, trained by Nakamura Stables
I think this may turn out to be the overlooked horse in the field. An early season two year old he ran third
in the Bashford Manor early last season. He was gelded just before a huge margin win in an ELP overnight and proved that was no fluke when running on late for a close fourth in the Iroquois. He stepped up again in the Nashua next time just failing by a neck to end up second in a very encouraging run. He started the season off with a decent second in The Smarty Jones and then flew late to score in the grade three Southwest. The runner up in that race came out and won the SUN Derby so that may be the best form so far in these qualifying races and i expect a big run from him today.
5 Jolly Charley, trained by Asgar
Sixth in the Best Pal last year and eleventh in The Risen star he looks a tick off the best of these today.
He is in the race though and anything could happen but only fair works and a lack of form at this level puts me off.
6 End Game, trained by Lc Racing Inc
Lightly raced with only four starts this looks an ambitious entry from a second season trainer. Having said that i really liked his effort in the Risen Star where he was only beaten two lengths and his works arent too bad either so he does have upset written all over him.
7 Mystery Boy, trained by Heavens Own
The winner of the Smarty Jones as a twenty to one shot he proved that was no fluke with a fast finishing seventh beaten only a length in the Risen Star. He needs a bit of luck with this mid pack draw as he does tend to get a bit buried in his races but there is nothing wrong with what he has done so far and he is another from a second season trainer that may upset the big guns. His works are as good as any and the trip will suit, ignore him at your peril.
8 Moment Of Madness, trained by Mb Stables
Four starts for three wins with two of those coming in major three year old graded stakes races he must start
favourite for the sites biggest owner. After just two starts as a two year old he debuted as a three year old in
The Lecomte stakes where he battled gamely for a neck win. His next start was in the grade two Risen Star and this is where he became a serious KYD hope as once again he showed his heart with a head win. He had a few of these behind
him that day but did get a decent run from a favoured draw so this will be a big test for him today. There is no
doubting his ability but he will have to improve again to win.
9 Lightning Bolt, trained by Blushing Meadows
With only two starts and a maiden win in February it would be very easy to write this one off. If however, you look
at his most recent work you will see that it matches Moment Of Madness’s most recent work and so you have to
believe he is much more than a recent maiden winner. Half the trouble with HRP is that all the horses are so close
in ability and race and work times that most races are all aout trip and draw and once again that will be the key for
this one if he is to get a shot at KYD glory.
10 Prime Time Opus, trained by Aer Stables
Won his maiden last September and has run some good races in top company since. Running on well late in the day he
was only three quarters of a length behind Moment Of Madness at the post and you would have to think with a clearer
run he may have been even closer. Before that he also finished late behind the same horse to be fourth in the Lecomte
so he is right in the mix and is certianly due a change of luck.
11 Custer Of The West, trained by Sanny Village
Won the Iroquois after a close second in the SAR Special as a two year old but was a dissapoinment in the BC Juvenile,
after those runs and was put to the spelling paddock for a break. He ran well on his three year old debut
to be fourth in the Holy Bull and again caught the eye in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes when occupying the same finishing spot. His mile work in January would put him right in this race and i cant help feeling we havent seen the best of him yet but with a horrible draw he will need some luck if today is going to be his day.
12 Champagne Supernova, trained by Eastern Equine
Won four black types in a row as a two year old including the DED Jackpot and the LA Futurity at Grade One. He was a
little dissapointing in the Southwest on seasonal debut when sixth but was only beaten a length and certiany deserves
another chance. His most recent work was amongst the best in the field so he is ready but he will need to clear the whole field quickly if he is to have chance. The signs of encouragment that he can do that came in the DED Jackpot last year when he came from the 14 box, crossed the field and made all for an easy three length win, if that happens again today he will be very hard to beat.
13 Escobas Grandes, trained by Drabfantasy
This horse ran a cracker in only his second lieftime start when third in the TAM Derby last time but he faces another tough ask today coming from a very wide draw and with another front runner inside him. I like this horse a lot but he would have to be very special to win from this box.
14 Aphrodite Of Mars, trained by Mm Racing
Consistent in maidens last year he took seven goes before he lost his maiden tag right at the end of the year. He ran a cracker in The Withers on seasonal debut finishing fast to beaten only a half length in third but with this horror draw today he ay find it too tough to try and get round them all in a last furlong flourish.
SUMMARY
Well i know i have said it before but if you cross referenced all the form in this race with the work out times you would end up with two lengths covering most of the runners. As such this race will be won or lost in a lost stride, a wide trip, a too fast start or a too slow start. So if you have a runner then good luck is more important than the best form and if you are backing one then you must rely on the lottery wheel to roll to a stop on your number. It is not my job however to discuss luck, it is my job to help you pick the winner by taking luck out of the equation and in doing that i have come up with four horses. Champagne Supernova deserves another shot but the wide gate scares me, Cliffs Of Maher may turn out to be the best of Mb’s entries and Mystery Boy could well mix it up with the big boys but for me the one to beat is Coup De lyon who couples good form with a good draw.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
