FL Derby (Grade 1) (KYD)- $1,000.000 Purse
GP- For Three Year Olds
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
April 2, 2016

The stakes are increasing for the best three year olds in the virtual racing world with the KYD just a month away.  The FL Derby is the second of six 100-point prep races for that race, and it has attracted a powerful field, to the point where you almost want to call this a KYD preview instead of a prep race.  This race will feature the winners of the following races, each won by a different horse: The Remsen, The TAM Derby, The Sham Stakes, The Holy Bull, and The Gotham.  Adding to that we’ll throw in the runner ups in the Fountain of Youth and the Lewis Stakes and third by a neck runner in the Gotham as well.  Each one of those accomplished has been achieved by a different entry in this race, and those who didn’t just have a performance of theirs just entered all have shown tons of potential in the races that they have been in.  There are a couple in this field who will seem to be outsiders, but could also shine against the best of their class.   Last year the race was won by Unsuited, who has gone on to have a great career.  Failing to hit the board in the same race was A One, so anyone who’s runner doesn’t get the result they want today should not be discouraged and can just look at how that one turned out. Note that there is a 40% chance of rain for the FL Derby as of right now.  Here’s the field, enjoy the race.

#1- Engine Failure (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez) (12 KYD Points, 29th Overall)- Last month, Engine Failure went to AQU for the Gotham and finished 3rd, running strong all the way to the wire.  He opted to be just off the lead and the quick pace set by leader Missing In Action that day, and looked to complete the pass in the stretch.  The two of them would battle, but Engine Failure’s effort came up short, and was further burned a little bit when Snowmizer came up and nipped him for second place.  Engine Failure will get another shot at Missing In Action in this race, and will be able to do so along the rail.  Mb Stables has had a successful prep race season so far, and Engine Failure actually ranks 9th amongst the trainer’s horses in KYD Points.

#2- Ned Isakoff (Jerry Garcia Racing, ridden by J J Castellano) (18 KYD Points, 23rd Overall)– A well respected three year old within our game needs to come up with a big race here in order to get into the derby.   The trainer has been very conservative with his Il Miglio Fabro colt, and if he does win today, then that can certainly pay dividends next month.  You can’t help but wonder if the lightly raced approach and then ending up in a field like this will come back to haunt Ned Isakoff.   Since running in the BC Juvenile, and having a pretty tough trip in that race, he would win the Grade 2 Remsen in November, and then barely missed winning the Holy Bull in late January.   Earlier this month, he put together an eye opening work in company at a mile (sub 1:36), and with an inside post position you do have to believe that he is ready to go here.  Though as we know, in our game, it is all about the trip in a race like this.

#3- Le Quartier (Gdp Inc, ridden by J L Ortiz) (7 KYD Points, 38th Overall)- So far this gelding has been running very well, although just missing at the same time.  Take his last start for example, running in the Gotham against the likes of Missing In Action and Engine Failure.  Le Quartier was fourth by less then a length that day, utilizing a powerful close to get up there and nearly come away with a win.   If he had another half furlong, then maybe he wins the race.  He gets that additional distance here, but we do not necessarily know if we will see the same quick pace that Missing In Action displayed in that race.  Other then the Gotham, Le Quartier was also third in the Holy Bull in late January, beaten only by Compress and Ned Isakoff, two more he sees today.  He will have to be more then just be competitive with them here though, he needs to get a win to get to the KYD.

#4- Blue Guy (Grimley, ridden by E Trujillo) (50 KYD Points, 9th Overall)- Last month he surprised a lot of people when he won the TAM Derby at odds of about 10/1.  It was his third race with trainer Grimley, after not really being able to find a steady owner until that point.  With Grimley, he has two strong races on his resume and that will allow us to throw out the disappointing finish in the El Camino for the time being.   This race will loom as a great test to see where Blue Guy stands against the elite horses in the division to see what kind of threat he may be to win the KYD.  The work times are all there, but he has never really faced a field that is as absolutely loaded as the one he sees today.

#5- Ghost Star (Mb Stables, ridden by I Ortiz Jr) (20 KYD Points, 19th Overall)- This Laffin Ghost gelding is sixth overall stablewise on the KYD Point chart, thanks in large part to a second place finish in the Fountain of Youth, beaten only by Edwin Drood, who was initially entered but scratched.   Palestinian and Compress were among those he beat that day, as well as a couple others who are trying the Spiral this weekend at TP.   Therefore, even though Ghost Star only has that one graded stake on his resume, it was a strong field, and he proved that he can beat many of the best three year olds in the game.  As for today, he is on the bubble, much like his stablemate Engine Failure.   Do not overlook him in this field, he is rested and ready to run.

#6- Pump Action Shotgun (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by E T Baird) (0 KYD Points)- The trainer looks to pick up his second consecutive FL Derby win, having won last year with Unsuited, but he will have to do so with one that will probably be a longshot.   Pump Action Shotgun has done all of his racing on turf since August, and he has had success on the grass.  He has won the ungraded $100.000 Awad and was second to Compress in the Grade 3 Dania Beach at the beginning of the year.  While Compress moved to the main track, Pump Action Shotgun stayed on the turf until now.  In a lesser field, he could be as good as anyone, but in this powerful field, I am a little unsure about him.  I’d like him more if the race was at a mile and no more.

#7- Fast Witch (Joshua Stables, ridden by R J Albrado) (0 KYD Points)-   Joshua Stables purchased her about two weeks ago, and he gives his witch a very tough assignment right off the bat.  Nope, I did not err on that pronoun, Fast Witch is a filly taking on some of the best colts and geldings that she possibly can in this race.   This is strange placement, given that she hasn’t necessarily been dominant against fillies either, and has only made one graded start during her career.  That came in late November, and she was third in the Demoiselle.  In mid-January, she was 7th in the ungraded Silverbulletday Stakes, and was most recently seen winning a N1X statebred allowance.  It wouldn’t be strange seeing her in a KYO prep, but here, it seems like a very tough task.  Though if she wins, there will be plenty to write about.

#8- Palestinian (Nakamura Stables, ridden by K J Desormeaux) (20 KYD Points, 17th Overall)- The Knowledge Geek gelding was fantastic as a two year old, winning six of his seven races.  Most of those were ungraded stakes, but when he moved to the KYD trail at the beginning of the year, he scored a win right away in the Sham Stakes.   After running third in the Fountain of Youth, it is surprising to see that Palestinian may be on the outside looking in of the KYD if he does not come up big in the KYD.  Perhaps, to a lesser degree then Ned Isakoff, he has been hampered point-wise by too light of a schedule this year.   He is just as good and just as capable of scoring a big win here as the others, but the trainer probably did not want to see so many other big names in the race.

#9- Roger The Australian (Threshold, ridden by J Rosario) (0 KYD Points)- The time is now if the trainer feels that his colt by Brilliant is deserving of a spot in the KYD.  He will be a big longshot here more then likely, with just two career wins.  His most recent effort was his stake debut, taking part in the ungraded $100.000 Battaglia Memorial at TP.  After a frantic closing bid, he ended up 4th in that race, but the winning time of that event is a couple ticks slower then what would those in this field are running, and the SRF numbers show that.  The trainer will be hoping that Roger The Australian just wants the added distance, and will be able to use that to his benefit if he closes strong again.

#10- Compress (Cherrytree Hill Farm, ridden by R Bejarano) (10 KYD Points, 32nd Overall)- The pride of Cherrytree Hill Farm won the first four races of his career, a run which started on the turf, and then ultimately saw him win the Holy Bull right here at GP at the beginning of the year.  After that race, many were ready to declare him as one of the KYD favorites, but if he is going to be in the field, he will need to come up big here.  A month after the Holy Bull, Compress was disappointing in the Fountain Of Youth, finding himself at the back early and never able to recover, only getting up to 8th.  The trainer has had time to try and fix what went wrong there, and if he was able to do that, then Compress is one of the top choices here.

#11- Xmas Grey (Blushing Meadows, ridden by J C Castanon) (0 KYD Points)- The gelding by Laffin Christmas was purchased by the current trainer in September for $60.000 from Barcelona Farms, and figures to soon pay great dividends.  That could start today against strong company.  Xmas Grey has been solid so far, including a runner up finish in the Grade 3 Davis Stakes in February.  He followed that up in the TAM Derby finishing out of the money, but coming on well at the end.  He is putting up good speed figures, and may just be calling out for longer distances and he will get more room to run here.

#12- Missing In Action (Downwind Stables, ridden by J R Leparoux) (62 KYD Points, 2nd Overall)- Unlike most of the other trainers in this field who will be sweating out the result for their contender, Downwind Stables has the confidence in knowing that this truly is about preparation for a race that he already knows his horse will be in.  Thanks to winning the Gotham, Missing In Action will be in action at the KYD, and his other races, such as three consecutive second place finishes in preps prior to the Gotham show that Missing In Action will be a favorite on Derby Day.   We haven’t had the same kind of declaration from the trainer that he will be firing his colt out to the lead, but it would seem likely for him to be with the leaders early here.  The outside post isn’t a problem, he was in post 10 for the Gotham.

#13- Mystery Boy- Scratched

#14- Edwin Drood- Scratched

#15- Admirals Aces (Grimley, ridden by C S Nakatani) (0 KYD Points)- The trainer gets his second entry into the field thanks to a scratch, but this figures to be a tough assignment.  He has just won one race thus far, and did well in that win on the turf in a statebred at AQU in December.  He has had one start since, the same Battaglia Memorial that Roger The Australian was in, and he finished 8th.   Put together a strong work at SUN recently, but he has a lot of work to do here.

#16- Team Panther (Running Farms, ridden by G L Stevens) (0 KYD Points)- Team Panther is a maiden.   After reading the previews of the other fifteen entries, that would seem to be enough to make you want to toss him out.  But, those works.  Those very, very, impressive works.  There is no denying that Team Panther is great in the morning, perhaps better then many others here, but he hasn’t been able to translate that into a race.  However, he was gelded and this will be his first race as a gelding.  We know what gelding can do in our virtual world.  Very interesting horse.

Prediction: 2-12-8-3-10

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES