April 1, 2016

The Grade II Top Flight Handicap falls perfectly into the Distaff schedule for those older fillies and mares who are looking for a little more time before the Grade I La Troienne on KYD Weekend and as such, a compact but highly talented field of five has been assembled to test the AQU main track. With $200.000 on the line, there is little separating the field and the weights reflect that and as such, the distance of nine-furlongs might be the key with only one of the entrants coming into the race off a victory thus far in 2016.

1-Charming Face (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)

For some reason, Charming Face was unable to quicken enough in an oddly run Grade I Cotillion but if you toss that race, you have a four-year-old filly who has placed in six of her last seven races and comes in off a sharp second in the HOU Ladies Classic against some very good females. Her last speed rating is the best in the field and she gets an inside post to work with, which is not a huge advantage at AQU but one that allows her to sit in the right spot and make the needed move around the tight final turn.

Analysis-Consistency might be her biggest asset

Fair Odds-4/1

2-Devil Wears Prada (Five-year-old chestnut mare / Owner-Maverick Racing)

Devil Wears Prada has not dropped out of stakes company since a blowout allowance win more than two years ago and while she is a Grade I winner, she had more off-the-board finishes than on-the-board finishes last year and coming off a fourth in the Royal Delta at more than 100-1, will simply need to show more. She tried the turf last year with minor success but switched back to dirt in hopes of a return to form; unfortunately, that did not happen and she now finds herself on the outside looking in on better fillies and mares.

Analysis-Not the same mare she once was

Fair Odds-15/1

3-Unsecured (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

Unsecured is a stakes winning three-year-old who improved in a big way at PRX last time out against easier and now steps back up into top class company with the confidence that she can handle the distance and make a case for her first Graded Stakes score. Her last speed rating was slower than most but more so a product of the distance and without Lasix, she has been able to close at these longer distance and might be able to make a dent if the pace up front is swift.

Analysis-Improving versus others who seem to be tailing off

Fair Odds-3/1

4-Shadow Of A Doubt (Six-year-old bay mare / Owner-Maverick Racing)

Shadow Of A Doubt is a former BC Distaff champion with multiple Grade I wins on her resume and last year, was a three-time winner with two of those wins over a sloppy track which could play into her hand if the track remains bad as expected. She has been unable to close in her last two attempts against similar company but certainly has the backclass to handle this level of field and should at least be making a minor move late as she marches towards $3000.000 in career earnings.

Analysis-Better of the two stablemates but that still might not be enough

Fair Odds-6/1

5-Kayce (Four-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Oval Express Farms)

Kayce scored a very surprising win in the Fleet Indian last year at SAR over this same distance but that proved to be her only victory in nine starts and although she was a solid third in her seasonal debut, she needs to show more in her return to the main track. The addition of Lasix helped her a little bit and maybe the second start with the addition will help but the feeling is that she could be a stalling type that at best, will have an upper hand on the closers turning for home.

Analysis-Has never shown that winning spirit

Fair Odds-10/1

Overall

There really is no standout in the Grade II Top Flight Handicap and at almost equal weights, Unsecured looks like the only one coming in off a top notch effort and will get a brief nod, with the hope that she can continue to improve from three to four. Charming Face was excellent at HOU in her first start of the campaign and could show marked improvement as the only really consistent one in the field while Shadow Of A Doubt has back class but is a shadow of her former self and needs to show much more than she has been to make the grade.

Prediction

Win-Unsecured (3/1)

Place-Charming Face (4/1)

Show-Shadow Of A Doubt (6/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES