April 6, 2016
While much of the attention will be on the colts and geldings going towards the KYD, there are a number of great races at the other tracks around the country and the only stakes race at OP is for the sophomore fillies with the Grade III Fantasy taking place. At 1 1/16 miles on the main track, it offers 100 points to the winner despite being a lower level race than both the SA Oaks and the Ashland and as such, has still garnered a field of nine including five from the Honeybee, a local prep run over a sloppy track that earned the winner a very low speed rating. In order to join the likes of Ashtons Pride, Fiore, Jersey Dream and Sirens Blaring as winners of this $400.000 race, they will have to handle a fast main track and what should be quick fractions, leading to a change of tactics for many as they try to get to CD for the biggest prize of the season.
1-Motor Home (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
Motor Home gets the inside gate in the Fantasy after a disappointing effort in the Santa Ysabel and will try to rebound after scoring a huge win two back at FG over this same distance, albeit against a much smaller and easier field. She really was at her best in that huge effort at WO and certainly knows how to close into the pace but the question will be whether she can find enough room late and make enough gains to outkick the favourites.
Analysis-That last effort leaves a bad taste in our mouths
Fair Odds-12/1
2-Summer Sampler (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Downwind Stables)
Stakes placed as a juvenile and a hard-luck second in third in her first two starts of the season, Summer Sampler came from well off the pace in the slop at OP to score her first big win in the Honeybee and will look to do that again on Saturday, over what should be a fast main track. Unfortunately, her speed ratings have declined in consecutive starts and that might mean that she is not coming up to a peak effort; even if she rebounds with a big placing but does not win, it would be bode well for her chances heading to CD for the Oaks, and beyond.
Analysis-Only needs a good performance to head to the Oaks
Fair Odds-5/1
3-Cardinal Fire (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Alydar Stables)
Cardinal Fire has faced her inside rival in three straight starts and finished behind her in all three of those starts so the idea that she can finally turn things around and beat her, and the rest of the field, is a tough prospect to fathom and she will be a longshot once again until she drops in class. The re-addition of Bute is the only thing that might make a minor difference but even then, double digit odds and a single on-the-board finish do not a champion make and she will be hard pressed against this group.
Analysis-No threat to her rivals in the past and faces them yet again
Fair Odds-20/1
4-Lisas Girl (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Aer Stables)
Lisas Girl was a stakes winning juvenile who failed to fire against open company in a long campaign and in two starts this season, has only managed a third in claiming company and an even sixth in that Honeybee over the slop. Now she is asked to get back to a route of ground and could be closing down the lane, although the likelihood of her scoring without a 90-speed rating to her credit is quite slim given this field.
Analysis-Has not been fast enough to compete at this level yet
Fair Odds-25/1
5-Get The Girl (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Australia Wide)
Get The Girl has two starts and two wins under her belt and goes forward for the powerful Australia Wide stable but being asked to go from turf sprinting to main track routing is a tall task for any horse, let alone a filly with only minor experience. While she might be good enough to tackle Graded Stakes company down the line, this is a very tough event for those looking to hit the Oaks in a few weeks and she does not look like the type who suits this caliber just yet.
Analysis-Being asked to make a big leap
Fair Odds-15/1
6-Art Of Glory (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
Art Of Glory came back for her second career start off a long freshening and responded with a huge maiden win going long, and came right back to finish a game second in the Busher at AQU behind a multiple stakes winner and Grade I runner-up. Despite her lack of racing, those duel 91-speed ratings jump off the page in this field and she knows how to handle the distance with speed and power, something that few others in this field possess.
Analysis-Lightly raced but coming up to a big effort
Fair Odds-3/1
7-Viking Christmas (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Delta Farms)
At 39-1, and basically left for dead at the head of the lane, Viking Christmas exploded in the Honeybee to finish second-best to another entrant in this field but that kind of effort is just what might be needed to win this race and she has the experience in other races to back it up. She is still only a one-time winner but has finished on the board in every other start and could finish with a placing once again, with hopes that it is enough to get her into the biggest race of her career at CD.
Analysis-Consistent runner needs that final push
Fair Odds-6/1
8-Sanny Senorita (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Luz International)
Racing for the first time since being purchased for $200.000, Sanny Senorita made all the fractions in the Honeybee before coming up empty in the lane and while she might have learned from that effort, the outside post and her early speed are almost a disadvantage on this track unless she gets a clear lead. Saving ground at OP is crucial to success in the short stretch and that regression in her last in a big question mark, especially since she is tackling the same horses she saved and some new shooters as well.
Analysis-Came up empty last time out when it really counted
Fair Odds-20/1
9-Proud Bird (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
The outsider in the Fantasy is Proud Bird, from both a post position and local horse perspective and after three straight wins to start her career, she was certainly not disgraced when fourth in the SUN Oaks from off the early pace. The quick turnaround is not really a cause for concern and we know that she will be coming from the back with her outside draw and on paper, her connections think she is good enough and that is a big sign coming from this big barn.
Analysis-Top owner has confidence and that makes her a contender
Fair Odds-4/1
Overall
The Grade III Honeybee was such an oddly run race that although it might be logical to take some of the local contingent here in the Grade III Fantasy, it is probably best to see how each of those fillies handles a fast main track and that is why I am taking two shippers to finish first and second. Art Of Glory was excellent in the Busher and is lightly raced but high on talent for top connections while Proud Bird is also coming in off a big effort but gets the outside post and will have to be used early to save some ground. Summer Sampler won the Honeybee and gets the third place nod with the hope that one of the inside posts will help her find the room needed to make another big late run.
Prediction
Win-Art Of Glory (3/1)
Place-Proud Bird (4/1)
Show-Summer Sampler (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
