April 14, 2016
The Grade I AR Derby is the final piece of the KYD puzzle still to be fit into place and as such, has drawn one of the most talented and deeply diverse fields all season with 14 tough entrants and three also-eligibles vying for the 180-points available to the top four finishers, as well as the lion’s share of the $1,000.000 purse. Only one of the entrants has actually qualified for the Run For The Roses as of yet but it is likely that others will earn their spot with good efforts and the question will be distance, as well as experience over this track, with only two runners from the Grade II Rebel coming back to face new shooters from across the country.
1-Pentagon (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Pentagon was excellent winning the Grade II Best Pal, and two other sprint races, last year but since stretching out, has been unable to find any kind of forward momentum with a sixth in the Fountain Of Youth and a dismal tenth in the LA Derby to his recent credit. Speed ratings have never really hit a peak mark and have declined all season long and while he gets an inside post with tactical speed, it will probably not be enough to see him contend for the win in the final quarter-mile.
Analysis-Not the same horse going two-turns
Fair Odds-25/1
2-Fearful (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Fearful is one of those patented Mb Stables runners who jumped right up from the maiden ranks to score a huge Graded Stakes win and the question is whether he will be able to duplicate his Rebel mastery against another big field, albeit with another perfect post. His speed rating of 96 is one of the best in the field and he earned it from well off the early pace and he will need to work out another similar trip if he hopes to continue that forward momentum while saving something for the biggest race of his career in a few weeks.
Analysis-Impressive winner last time out needs a big repeat
Fair Odds-3/1
3-Fast Thomas (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Brave)
Fast Thomas has a big pedigree, coming from the same dam at BC Mile winner Sir Tom, and the hope is that he will be able to perform better over the main track than his half-brother, who was a charging fourth in the Rebel but only sixth in this race back in 2014. A huge wire-to-wire win at PRX with an amazing final speed rating shows that he certainly likes the two turn distances and there is much to like in this lightly raced colt who seems to enjoy going as far as he can, as fast as he can.
Analysis-Two big wins set him up for a career best effort
Fair Odds-4/1
4-Copper Beast (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Pan Farms)
Sold by Pan Farms last May, then re-purchased by the same owner this past March, Copper Beast is a stakes winner going short but has never been two-turns in five career starts and makes the ambitious leap in hopes of finding more space with which to close. Made the favourite in his last four starts, he has failed to win in three of those against state-bred sprinters and this field warrants a big look, with this colt getting the short end of the stick at this distance.
Analysis-Being asked to do too much by the new owners
Fair Odds-20/1
5-Black Mojo (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Broken Spoke Stables)
Black Mojo looked good breaking his maiden going this same distance last time out at SA but this is a much bigger leap than one would suspect off a single maiden score and on paper, it was not dazzling enough to warrant a major look against this talented field. He used a different tactic going long and was able to carry his speed all the way around the track but there are faster horses with more experience in this field and it will be up to him to handle the pressure and still come out with a good effort in the end.
Analysis-Good maiden win last time but this is a big test
Fair Odds-10/1
6-Ghost Star (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Ghost Star could have punched his ticket to the KYD with a big race last time in the FL Derby but was unable to close from dead-last and will have to get into the race sooner if he hopes to have any shot of making it to Louisville. It seems like he needs a solid pace up front in order to make his closing move and this route distances do not allow him to make up enough ground so if this does not work out, he might be switched back to one-mile races where the pace will set him up better.
Analysis-Takes his shot but might not like the set-up
Fair Odds-8/1
7-Broomsticks Wiggy (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Drabfantasy)
Highly regarded off a maiden score going short on the grass, Broomsticks Wiggy was a complete flop in the Spiral at TP and will simply have to be better to hit the board and prove that his owner is making the right move keeping him on dirt. His running style suggests a fondness for the grass and his workouts indicate that as well but for now, he races against some of the best in his division and could show improvement, even enough to make it all the way to CD.
Analysis-Cannot back with confidence off his TP debacle
Fair Odds-15/1
8-Th Watcher (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Harrell Racing)
Th Watcher has had too many close finishes without a victory to be considered a serious candidate for victory in the AR Derby and even so, the purchase prices keep going up and with it, the expectations for him to finally come through. He was only second in a N2X allowance at SA last time out against a winner bombed in the mud this past weekend and with a non-factor placing in the Lewis before that, there is too much of a rebound expected for him to recover sufficiently.
Analysis-Has not done enough to show that he belongs
Fair Odds-30/1
9-Mach Force (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Eastern Equine)
A stakes winner as a two-year-old and Grade III placed two back in the El Camino Real at GG, Mach Force tried to close enough in the SUN Derby but only get up for fifth and now looks to build on that race with another nine-furlong attempt, this time from a better outside gate. He got pace to chase last time but could not make up enough ground but this speed should suit him better and he could be one of the better runners down the lane with a top jockey guiding him through traffic.
Analysis-Made a nice move at SUN and could make a similar one here
Fair Odds-6/1
10-Cozzene Lyphard (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Kingelleinc)
Cozzene Lyphard took a huge shot at victory in the Rebel last time over this same course but stalled in the final furlong and wound up third and will try to build on that effort with the added experience and much like others, a better outside post. He will be sitting right off what should be a hot pace up front and could get caught wide into the first turn but the added distance will help him get a good trip and if he can find a seam, he could outfinish others and earn enough points to get to the KYD.
Analysis-Will be better placed early and could continue to improve
Fair Odds-8/1
11-Prime Time Opus (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Aer Stables)
There are plenty of reasons to like Prime Time Opus as a top three candidate, especially since he has earned placings in three Grade II events including the Risen Star and the LA Derby but the fact that he has had three big races this season and failed to finish up with gusto in any of them shows that he might be in need of a break and could be over the top. Speed figures are some of the best in the field but these races can take a lot out of a horse and he will need to continue to improve if he wants to earn enough points to get to CD and still keep something for the race itself.
Analysis-Has had a tough campaign and this is only April
Fair Odds-12/1
12-Speeding Steel (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Much like another Mb Stables entrant who we saw run off to a huge lead in the Ashland, Speeding Steel has been hell-bent on the lead in every single start and only has a 4.5-furlong win at WO to show for it and after fading badly in the Gander, will be the pacesetter for his inside and more fancied stablemate. Workouts have never been amazing and he gets an outside post so using his speed will be crucial and he will have little left for the drive, when the final quarter-mile really becomes do or die.
Analysis-Speed from the outside and that is about it
Fair Odds-50/1
13-Copper Opus (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Big Guns Stables)
Copper Opus took four starts to break his maiden and did so over the grass, then took another three starts to win his N1X allowance condition and did so last time out against the easiest field he faced since his debut at LAD. That being said, the final time was amazing and so was the speed rating of 98, which is the best in the field, so he has to garner at least a mention as a possible winner if he can duplicate his off-the-pace tactic from one of the widest posts.
Analysis-Huge speed rating last time could be a sign of things to come
Fair Odds-8/1
14-Lord Byron (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)
I noted in the Fountain Of Youth that Lord Byron might be the best closer and while he made a middle move, he was unable to get the necessary momentum down the lane to finish better than fifth and will need to show more enterprise late if he hopes to upset from post 14. Off since that effort in February but coming in with improving workouts, he races for an owner who has won this event in the past but who will need some help from the racing gods to overcome such a tough position outside.
Analysis-Talented colt needs to get into the race early to prove effective
Fair Odds-12/1
Overall
Viking Shield won the Grade I AR Derby last year as the 5-2 favourite and he only went on to win the BC Classic in a huge upset; while we might not have a horse of that caliber amongst this 14-horse field just yet, there are still some exciting TC prospects and two from the inside should garner most of the attention. Fearful was an excellent winner of the Grade II Rebel from well off the early pace and now gets a similar inside post to work with and that is why he gets the top nod over Fast Thomas, who has been equally impressive against easier company and faces a stern test of class for owners who are trying to build on a huge 2015. For the rest of the field, including third choice Mach Force, this is a stepping stone to bigger races down the line and with the winner and maybe the runner-up assured a spot in the KYD, it comes down to talent at this nine-furlong distance and who among them gets the best trip.
Prediction
Win-Fearful (3/1)
Place-Fast Thomas (4/1)
Show-Mach Force (6/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
