QE II Challenge Cup – Grade I
KEE Race #4 1 1/8m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $600.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
As the top three year old fillies are now being primed for the BC we have a very nice field of second division fillies who all have displayed the ability to get to the BC but have all failed to gather enough points. A star may shine and it looks like the best jockeys have chosen the best draws so we may have to look to the inside to find a winner……or maybe not, lets have a look and see:
1 Freak Event The Freakshow Ferrer J C
Bought for just $5 at auction she has been brought along slowly by the trainer but showed in her last start that she has a touch of class and is reaching the peak of her improvement curve. Installed as favorite for The Pebbles after an impressive win in overnight company she tried really hard from a difficult draw but in the end succumbed to the late charge of The Honeymoon winner Lady Hilltopper. She gets the ace draw today so should find a much easier trip and gets the services of one of the top fillies jockeys this year so must be a live chance.
2 Coconut Milk Wood Duck Stables Cedillo A
She was building a good record on the dirt but was switched to turf after a so so race in the Beaumont. Three races in and she has a grade two win in the San Clemente and a strong second in the Mabee last time over this trip. She has been favored by the draw in all her turf starts so i am not sure she is much better on this surface but at HRP the surface doesn’t seem to mean much and she gets another favorable draw today so it should be business as usual. I would expect a comfortable stalk and then it is down to whether she can see out this trip as it has to be said she had been an effective sprinter for most of her career and may have been a bit tired at the end of the Mabee last time. A winning chance for sure and looks certain for top three at least.
3 Wander Mb Stables Saez L
After an early season of poor draws it seems the champion trainer is enjoying a better run recently and gets this filly into a great spot for this big purse. Big Purses tend to be the target and the forte of this yard and they rarely miss so i am sure this one will start favorite for those reasons although her winning chance is not one dimensional as she is a good filly on her own. Once again proof that horses at HRP do not have the sort of preference that real life horses have when it comes to surface she was a strong hope in the KYO after winning the Gazelle but suffered a terrible draw in that premiership race. She was only beaten three lengths though and went on to run a close sceond in the WO Oaks from another bad draw before being flipped back to turf for her last two races. Those two races have seen a close third in the lake Placid and a fair third in the Wonder Where Stakes so whilst she isn’t a stable star she certainly has the form to win this.
4 Tellcharlieitsforyou Nakamura Stables Velazquez J R
She was building a really consistent and progressive record when she was upped in grade to the SAR Oaks last time but was caught out stalking one of those stupid paces and understandably weakened. She is a lot better than that effort but i still unproved at this level so you have to take that part of her progression on trust. The trainer has been in great form as usual and it would be no surprise to see this one right there at the end.
5 Lousiana Woo Invicta Group Llc Alvarado J
Another really consistent filly with the only blot on her copybook coming on an off track. She ran a hug race to be second to State Caviar in the grade one DMR Oaks two back then avenged that defeat in the JC Oaks when beating State Caviar in finishing third to a filly that may well start as the BC Fillies And Mares Turf favorite in Perfect Class. Those two races are probably the best form for this race even though prior to that she hadn’t looked as good. The form choice to upset the big stables.
6 Time And Again TwinTowersRacing Franco M
Could easily be a bit overlooked in this race but i think she may be one that is flying under the radar and could be at rewarding odds. Her running style is a bit up in the air but then again we are playing a click and play game so running styles and individual horses are less important these days than getting lucky with the trip and instructions. She tried to make all but weakened in the ONT Colleen and then ran a good fifth beaten just two lengths in the KD Ladies Turf running from mid-pack. Her dirt works seem a bit stronger than her turf works so she may switch back to that surface if today doesn’t work out but i would still put her in here with a top four chance.
7 Chance 2 Ask Threshold Gallardo A A
A fair sort who has been looking for this nine furlongs for a while now i feel that today may be her best chance of stepping out of the shadows. The draw is sticky and the stable susceptible to spinny legs slow starts so if she can get away and find a decent spot then she has a chance of an upset.
8 Tabitha Stephens Mb Stables Hernandez R M
She went from optional claimer to grade two winner in a month which is pretty usual for HRP and this stable who bought her for $125 at the start of the year and brought her along pretty slowly. She stalked that day and beat her stable companion Wander into third but this draw may make that position a bit tougher in this race. Her last start saw her in the JC Oaks but after looking to have found a decent place in transit she weakened at the end and may have found that trip beyond her. The key for her is where she ends up after a furlong and that may be the winning of the race or the losing of it.
9 Love Is Free Iolaus Racing Leparoux J R
After a very strong third in the SAR Oaks i liked her chances from a decent draw in the JC Oaks but the race was run in a completely different pace to the SAR Oaks and her finish from the rear was never going to happen. She has stalked before so clearly can start well but her last two starts have seen slower starts and that is a concern. The draw will make it tough and she may have to rely on another strong pace if she takes option A and goes back, if she takes Option B and goes forward then she has to hope no-one else wants to be there but this is the dilemma of HRP these days. A definite chance if the race engine is on her side.
10 The Intouchables Smokey Stover Gutierrez Mario
It is unusual to find a runner from the stable in the car park but i know the trainer will relish the challenge of trying to negotiate the cars and picnics and find a way to win. After winning the Fantasy on the dirt she went for the KYO and though she was in the race for a long way could only manage tenth albeit only two lengths off the winner. She then switched to turf and looked to be struggling a bit but a recent work says there has been some improvement and i do wonder whether the trainer has something up their sleeve.
SUMMARY
A really tough race to call and as i have mentioned the winning of this race will probably have very little to do with which is the best horse but more to do with pace, instructions and a smattering of race engine absurdity. On form i would side with Louisiana Woo who is drawn well enough and certainly has a big chance but she has four in form stable inside her and all of them know how to play this race engine. Coconut Milk should run well but i worry about her strength at the end and it would be no surprise to see the MB pair in the first three. Of the others well it is hard to write any of them off but if i was looking for an outsider it might well be Chance 2 Ask.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
