April 29, 2016
Older fillies and mares take to the BEL turf for the first time since last season in the License Fee, held Sunday afternoon, and there are two logical choices among the field of five who could step up and take down the biggest part of the $100.000 purse. Won last year by Dont Stop, it does not feature any of the runners from that inaugural edition but does look like a stepping stone for many with the Intercontinental and the Grade III Royal North at WO just around the corner.
1-Chase Hardhead (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Sarah Stables)
After three straight wins to start her career, Chase Hardhead has fallen on tough times in stakes company as of late, yet still goes for the gusto with an appearance in the License Fee against proven turf sprinters. Going longer over the main track, and two turns over the turf, has not proven fruitful at all with a complete lack of closing kick and the hope is that a speed duel will evolve and set her up for a big finish at outrageous odds.
Analysis-Has shown nothing in stakes company
Fair Odds-25/1
2-Natural Flower (Six-year-old black mare / Owner-Maxmillion Farm)
Since moving to the turf, Natural Flower has been an excellent sprinter with multiple Graded Stakes wins and nearly $1000.000 in earnings and already with a Grade II win this season, he has to rank as one of the big contenders with the cut back to six-furlongs. Her 99-speed rating just missing in the Monrovia at SA is the best in the field and she was taken down by Attraction, with six Grade I wins on her resume; there is no one of that caliber in this field and that makes things that much easier as she aims for her 10th career win.
Analysis-Class of the field and looks great coming in
Fair Odds-2/1
3-Republic Of Dog (Five-year-old gray mare / Owner-Hacienda Don Tito)
Republic Of Dog has made a habit of taking down starter allowance and minor stakes victories and looks for her third win of the campaign and first since scoring in the Big Easy over a very soft FG course. Adept over both firm and soggy goings, she will be charging from well off the pace and with speed to her outside, she will have to find enough room down the short BEL stretch if she wants to finally move up to the top ranks of her division.
Analysis-Likes to win but this is a tougher task
Fair Odds-5/1
4-Coldwater Creek (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Whitewater Stables)
It took a few tries for Coldwater Creek to break her maiden and she followed that up with two more wins including the South Beach but her four-year-old season has not been good and she will try to regroup with a move back to the East Coast and the course where she broke her maiden. That effort was a wire-to-wire win but her Buena Vista was decidedly different and while it might have been too long for her, it still leaves questions to be answered in a field that is ready to run.
Analysis-Has fallen out of form and will hope to rebound
Fair Odds-8/1
5-Love Runs Deep (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Axeman)
First or second in 14 of 17 career starts, Love Runs Deep has been excellent going short on the grass and will continue that hot hand in this small field with the hope that the six-furlong distance is the perfect distance. Five-furlongs has been excellent and carrying her speed that little bit extra will be crucial but she has worked very well in the interim and should appreciate the course, making her a logical second choice to the hot favourite.
Analysis-Excellent form makes her a top two contender
Fair Odds-3/1
Overall
Natural Flower is the class of the License Fee field and should be a deserving favourite on Sunday afternoon, with the drop back into ungraded company and the move back to a sprint all the more reason to like her as the top choice. Love Runs Deep has excellent past performances and consistency on her side, and could make a case for a wire-to-wire win from the outside, while Republic Of Dog has been besting lesser company and now tries to make a move up the ladder against two of the best in her division.
Prediction
Win-Natural Flower (2/1)
Place-Love Runs Deep (3/1)
Show-Republic Of Dog (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
