BC Juvenile Fillies – Grade I
KEE Race #12 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $2,000.000 For Fillies Two Years Old.
Mb Stables has won this race three times in the last six years so will no doubt be a chance of adding number four this year but with breeding limits changed it is a much harder race to win these days. I was going to say you really need an early type as very often this is the last grade one they win but a look back to 2017 see’s the great La Terrifiant winning and we all know how good that mare is as she once more looks to win another BC race some 5 years later. The race record was set by Vouvrey in 2011 at 1:41.67 but it is doubtful we will see a sub 1.42 today although Hawaiian Pirate set a time of 1.42.18 on this track in 2015.
Probably the biggest controversy at least pre-race is the draw. We see Smokey Stovers single entry in the one gate, with Arindels one runner in three whilst the two stables with three runners each find them all together in gates 8 to 13. Those three facts alone looks awfully difficult to stomach from a random draw but then we find poor Nebulistic in gate 14 in her fourth stakes race with her fourth wide draw. Odd looking randoms aside i don’t think the draw will be the problem it can be because many of the juvenile races this year have been won by wide draws coming from off the pace. Lets face it Nebulistic would be a little lost if she suddenly found herself in the one gate.
So here is the web of form and intrigue that make up the form for this years race, good luck to all:
1 Rabbit Bay Smokey Stover Bocachica A
Bred by Smokey Stover
Form: 1421220
Breeding: By Acapulco Bay out of Rabbit For A Cause
WR: 103
Best Dirt Mile Work: 1.37 and 2, best six furlong work: 1.11
A big winner on debut back in April she confirmed she was an early type by running fourth and second in the first of the two year old stakes races. That experience taught her well as she took a big ticket allowance and in her last two starts ran well in the grade one DMR Debutante and the Alcibiades. She was tried with two different tactics in those last two races and i feel she was a little bit better coming from mid pack in the last of them. Instructions and pace will play a big part today but in the hustle and bustle of a big field her 16 hand frame will certainly help her get to where she wants to be in running. An obvious chance from this stable but she will have to improve a length or two to win and will have to find her position early as 13 other two year olds bear down on the rail.
2 Cold Storage Rock Creek Jaramillo E
Bred by Big Guns Stable
Form: 2114
Breeding by Sacred Dancer out of Onsite
WR: 102
Best dirt mile work: 1:40, best six furlong work 1.11
A great draw for this filly who was bought for just $25 after a free track debut and what a story it would be if the current owner could turn that $25 into a BC win. After a maiden win at LAD she wasn’t expected to win the Adirondack but she didn’t know that and dug deep to take the race by a very game neck. Stepped up in trip for her last start in the Alcibiades she got back from the same draw she has today and got a bit lost in the traffic before ending up a decent fourth beaten two lengths. She will have to find a better position today and has room for improvement with only four starts.
3 Scarlett Dream Arindel Saez L
Bred by Canny Lodge
Form: 4111
Breeding: By Tallmadge out of Cheers To My Haters
WR: 105
Best Dirt Mile work: 1.36 and 4, best six furlong work: 1.10 and 3
Like Gumption here is another runner bred by a stable that is not known for their breeding set up giving hope again to the smaller player over the popular opinion that you have to be one of the big breeders to turn out top animals. This filly was bought after her debut fourth at FP for $180 which was a huge gamble by the trainer considering there aren’t many FP maiden losers that end up as grade one winners and BC contenders. The gamble as we can see has more than paid off as she has notched three in a row for her new owner culminating in a huge performance in the Alcibiades last time. Drawn out she went way back at the start but flew down the stretch for a huge win taking the race by a length. I like the fact that she has won from on the pace and from off it and also from a bad draw suggesting this is a serious contender in a race where horses have to be very adaptable.
4 Gumption Alydar Stables Velazquez J R
Bred by Tinkey
Form: 11201
Breeding: By Gumshoe out of Tamagin
WR: 106
Best Dirt Mile work, none, best six furlong work: 1.10 and 3
It is great to see a horse bred by a stable that isn’t best known for the big time and i am sure even though Tinkey no longer owns this filly they will be very excited to see her run in the BC. The current owner bought this filly for $165 after her debut win in April and we all know that can be a gamble but this gamble has certainly paid off as she comes into this race as a grade one winner already. Her only disappointing effort came in the Spinaway on an off track but she bounced back in style on a firmer footing when taking the Frizette last time. Drawn way out in ten she ran a great race tracking the leaders and then finishing really well to win by a length and that is certainly one of the best pieces of recent form leading into this race. At 16.2hh she is the biggest filly in the field and will be an imposing sight as she picks her spot from the gate but she will need to get that big frame going quickly to find her spot so the trainer will be keeping their fingers crossed at the barriers open.
5 Apache Farm El Primero Rodeo Elliott S
Bred by El Primero Rodeo
Form: 41223
Breeding: By Apache out of Fifty Farley
WR 103
Best Dirt Mile Work: 1.38 and 3, best six furlong work: 1.11
A consistent sort she took one of those big ticket maidens at WO back in May which led her into the big stakes races of the Summer where she has been right in the thick of the action. She tried really hard to the line in the Schylerville when dead heating for a close second and then did the same in the Sorrento Stakes when a close second again. She was just a little disappointing in the Spinaway but that was on an off track so she can be forgiven her third place some four lengths off the winner. The trip is a question mark as her mile work was less than impressive and she has yet to go beyond seven furlongs but this is a filly with a big heart and plenty of ability and even though she has had favorable draws in all her best races she must represent a viable place chance from a nice draw once again.
6 Lucky Star Calia Stable Castellano J J
Bred by Calia Stable
Form: 211013
Breeding: By Dumbell Press out of Shortfin Mako
WR: 107
Best Dirt Mile work 1.37 and 4, best 6 furlong work: 1.10 and 3
This filly has been good from the start running a strong second from a wide draw in her debut and then winning her first race on May 7th. Her first four races saw four terrible draws and yet she still managed 2 wins and a close fifth in the Schuylerville. When she finally got a good draw she thrashed the field in the grade one Spinaway albeit on an off track and then tried front running again in her last start and first over a mile when fading a little at the end to be third in the Frizette. Still on the small side she has a great conformation for this sort of trip but may find the hustle and bustle of a big field a little intimidating if she ends up getting too far back and into the pack. If she can find a spot near the pace she certainly has every chance of giving the stable their first BC win.
7 Sioux Gathering Rock Creek Jimenez A
Bred by El Primero Rodeo
Form: 13100
Breeding: By Sioux out of Qasimi
WR 102
Best Dirt Mile Work: 1.38, best six furlong work 1.10 and 4
She looked really good when taking the Schuylerville but has struggled a bit in her last two although has had two difficult draws to deal with. She was a no show in the DMR Debutante but ran better in the Frizette when coming home strongly off a fast pace after a slow start. It seems her best chance will come with the right instruction and pace but she has certainly showed enough ability if she can find a place close enough early on and then use her finish down the stretch.
8 Calm Fury Mb Stables Cedillo A
Bred by Mb Stables
Form: 212102
Breeding: By Fire N Fury out of Zen Destiny
WR: 102
Best Dirt Mile work 1.37 and 3, best six furlongs: 1.10 and 4
She had a quiet start running at lower tracks and gaining her maiden win at LS but she proved she was a much better grade than that when taking a big ticket allowance at SAR. Since then it has naturally been stakes races and she has done very well both times finishing close up in the Pocahontas and then running a fine second in the Alcibiades. At only 15.1 it is understandable why the trainer started her off slowly but it may be her size that beats her here because this is a big field and there will be lost of bumping and shoving as she jumps from the squeeze box. Given a trip she is a chance for sure.
9 Doctor Quinn Mb Stables Silvera Ru
Bred by Dandy Dan Stables
Form: 1103
Breeding: By Class Edge out of Aesculapian Snake
WR: 101
Best Dirt Mile work: 1.37 and 2, best six furlongs 1.10 and 4
Won a FON Maiden on debut and was bought for $200 after that and she immediately proved that was money well spent with a game win in a big ticket maiden at SAR from a wide gate. She didn’t do well on the off track in The Spinaway but was better in the Alcibiades last time when third behind Scarlett Dream and stable mate Calm Fury. She ran well from a difficult gate that day but has a tough alley again here so it is hard to see how she can beat those rivals. This race though can be full of all sorts of shenanigans so whilst she may not be first choice she certainly has the ability to make a case for her winning.
10 Proud Spell Fractious Centeno D E
Bred by Fractious
Form: 410041
Breeding: By Anoush Command out of High Ballerina
WR: 104
Best Dirt Mile Work: none, best six furlong work: 1.11 and 1
Lost her way after a big ticket maiden win but that may have been down to a couple of rotten draws and she has certainly looked better in her last two when not having to deal with bad gates. Her last effort over this trip was huge when she came from a long way back in the Chandelier to just get home by a nose from the front running Greenhousegasparty. I am not sure where her best transit position is as she did OK off the front in the Muskoka and was massive late off a fast pace in the Chandelier but she has proven he can go where she is put which will be important in this big field. The draw may be an issue as she hasn’t done well from wider draws before and her start will be essential.
11 Indien Rouge Mb Stables Franco M
Bred by Two Hearts One Love
Form: 010012
Breeding: By Red Hoofed Inferno out of Anthem
WR : 103
Best Dirt Mile Work: 1.37 and 1. best six furlong work: 1.11
Her form lines make tough reading but her best is certainly good enough to get into the finish. She always looked a bit like she needed further in her first 5 starts and that opinion was really brought home when she ran a career best in the Frizette last time running home strongly to be beaten just a nose. The fact that she hails from the yard of the winning most BC trainer of all time must be worth a length and on that effort in the Frizette she will be high on a few peoples lists. The draw is tough but i feel of the three from this stable she is the one that will be positioned further back so it may not be a big issue if she can slot in and not too far behind.
12 Syclone Fractious Hernandez R M
Bred by Spinetingling
Form: 121
Breeding: By Warlock out of Attend The Flag
WR: 102
Best Dirt Mile Work: 1.37 and 4, best six furlong work: 1.11 and 1
One of the more lightly raced fillies i really liked how she knuckled down from the wide draw to win the Pocahontas last time. She was bought originally by Mb Stables from Spinetingling but has since been purchased by Fractious giving the stable a nice profit by fetching $350 rather than the $70 she cost originally thanks to that grade three win. Just a small one at 15.1 she may find her size and inexperience a disadvantage but she clearly has a good motor and a will to win and she could have the most scope out of the principal runners. She has raced from wider draws in her last two so should be OK here and may find an advantage in not being involved in the initial scrum to the bend.
13 Ignore Tucker Fractious Gaffalione T
Bred by La Canada Racehorses
Form: 011104
Breeding: By Fox Ruler out of Exclusive View
WR: 104
Best Dirt Mile work: 1.37 and 3, best six furlong work: 1.10 and 4
When this filly made it three wins in a row by winning the Sorrento Stakes Fractious went all in and bid a huge $1200 to wrestle the horse away from its breeder. In her first effort for the new trainer she was a huge disappointment when a weak fifth in the DMR Debutante but she looked more like her old self when flying home in the Chandelier to be fourth after getting some spinny legs at the start and being nine lengths back with a half to run. We know she has the ability to win but it is clear that she has her own idea’s about racing and the trainer will be hoping she is in the right mood today. Going from two races in the ace draw to a car park draw may actually suit her running style so whilst there may be some initial disappointment it may turn out to be an advantage if the spinny legs don’t spin too long.
14 Nebulistic Barcelona Farms Van Dyke D
Bred by Bacelona Farms
Form: 1111
Breeding : By East Shore Road out of Hedy
WR 107
Best Dirt Mile Work: none. best six furlong work: 1.10 and 4
You don’t get many unbeaten fillies in the BC races let alone ones that have raced four times but this filly has been dominant in all her races even though the draw monster has done its best to give her tough tasks. Her last start was her best taking out the DMR Debutante by a very easy two lengths after running wide early and many pundits saw her as a BC winner that day. She has a decent running style for a race like this and can produce a good turn of foot from the stalk which is an important trait. The trip is the only question mark but i haven’t seen anything that says she wont see it out. Of course the elephant in the room is yet another wide draw and whilst she has done it all before she will need a favor from the race engine to remain unbeaten, i for one will be hoping she gets that favor.
15 Creepy Chili Chili King Stables – Also Eligible –
She ran well in the Pocahontas but was awful from a wide draw in the Alcibaides which doesn’t bode well if she makes the field. Her works are strong though so if she does get in she may turn out to be a roughie at a big price.
16 La Roo Our Athletes – Also Eligible –
This would be her first race out of state bred’s if she were to run but her works and her form are pretty good and the win in the Fl Sire Stakes – My Dear last time was very strong. I wouldn’t be ruling her out if she gets a run.
17 Black Moon Concerto TwinTowersRacing – Also Eligible –
She has some decent enough works and form to be given a punchers chance but she was a little late to the qualifying party and it is unlikely she will get a start.
SUMMARY
Well this race is always tough to pick the winner, as is any BC race. The top three on WR are Nebulistic, Lucky Star and Gumption and that may be as good a guide as any but it is hard not to include an Mb runner in that given their amazing race record. It is an interesting note that if every breeder had held onto their own horse we would have 14 horses owned by 14 different trainers competing here and whilst that has little relevance into how they got into the race it is an interesting fact that should encourage those who want BC success to hold onto their horses just a little longer.
Once again good luck to all in what will be a great race as always.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP
