The Remsen – Grade II [KYD]
AQU Race #3 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Two Year Olds.
1 Ben Nevis Hippyheart Velazquez J R
Looked pretty special in taking his first two races and was understandably aimed high after that taking on the Breeders Futurity. Drawn out he ran a respectable third that day staying on well but beaten a couple of lengths by Shoo Fly in finishing into third. His last start was in the BC Juvenile where he once again finished behind Shoo Fly when running a little one paced in fifth and with a better draw in that race there doesn’t seem to be too many good reasons why he should turn the tables today.
2 Fear Me Not Mb Stables Saez L
Two wins in state breds the second being an ungraded stakes race he ran pretty well to be third last time and his works are looking sharp. His wins have come from the stalk and his losses from when he was on the lead so he may need to settle in the second group here to have his best chance.
3 Shoo Fly Lazy Eye Bocachica A
An impressive winner of both the breeders Futurity and the BC Juvenile he looks home and hosed to me here with this nice draw and his grade one winning jockey at the steering again. All of his defeats have come over shorter trips and since being upped in trip he has looked hugely impressive. This is a huge success story for the returning trainer who could be looking at a HRP award and an early KYD favorite should this colt run away with this today.
4 Los Pollos Hermanos Panionios Racing Pennington F
An interesting entry who looks to be an under rated type and may just be flying under the radar in this race. Three runs in state bred company included two wins but i liked his last start best where he was beaten into fourth. That run came in the grade three Street Sense where he got back from an inside draw but ran on generously at the end. I think this draw will suit him better and though it is tough to see him beating Shoo Fly he could be a nice choice in the multiple bets.
5 Spirit Believer Nakamura Stables Centeno D E
He has put some miles on the clock but has been pretty disappointing in his last two when presented in the top grade. Things were going well up to his solid second in the Iroquois but after a poor run on the turf in the Bourbon which could be forgiven he was pretty much a no show in the BC Juvenile. He got the attack of the spinny legs in the BC which could explain his poor show and the way HRP is these days a better start could see him back to his best.
6 Kimbos Cat Witeout Stables Prat F
Racing as a colt this one managed a win and a fourth place in the SAR Special in 4 starts but then the trainer decided on the knife and unlike a few others the expected improvement never materialized. A fair run in The Hopeful when making ground preceded a poor run in the Bowman Mill when ridden on speed so i would expect him to be ridden as a closer today. If that doesn’t work we may see him back in sprints next time.
7 Lunar Victory Fractious Hernandez R M
Winning a debut in September against more developed horses can often be a good sign and this one backed up that gutsy win with a close second in the Coronation Futurity. His works suggest there is plenty more to come and that he is improving with each race so i would put him firmly in the group of good chances in this race.
8 Kentucky Pharoah Arindel Moran D
His form lines look pretty inconsistent but it is difficult to read into them too much as his last three have been on turf. He switched to the grass after a poor run in the Bashfrd Manor and duly so its back to the dirt today.won the With Anticipation by a very easy four lengths. It looked like the trainer has stumbled on a true turfer at that point but then he has run a couple of very ordinary races since so it is back to the dirt today to try and get things back on track. His sub 1.37 work may suggest that is a good decision.
9 Deviations TwinTowersRacing Franco M
This isn’t a bad sort but he doesn’t look up to this grade which would be important if he was with any other trainer. TwinTowers however is having a brilliant season and can get these types to run lifetime bests in big races so i wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him run above his current form.
10 Night Raider Mb Stables Cedillo A
Ran very well to be second in the Pharaoh but then ran a stinker in the BC Juvenile where he got spinny legs at the start and never got into the race. Interestingly he was drawn wide in the Pharaoh and ran his best race so this draw may not be the disadvantage it looks. The works are strong and the stable is as usual on fire so with HRP form being so up and down this one could easily make up the seven lengths he was beaten in the BC.
11 Ghostzap Fractious Jaramillo E
A front runner with a wide draw, it seems obvious that this one will try and lead and if he does and is put under too much pressure he could be hard to get past. He did that in the Street Sense and only failed by a half length to hold on and i do like the way this one has been working. The question is will the trainer go with the running style he has displayed so far or try the click and play game and turn him into a closer? Either way i expect a strong show.
SUMMARY
These juvenile races don’t get any easier at this time of year as many of the top horses are ready for a break. Shoo Fly should win this on all known form so he has to be the pick but there are a few queuing up looking for chinks in the armor. I like Ghostzap to get in the first four along with stable mate Lunar Victory and i wouldn’t be writing off Fear Me Not and Ben Nevis if things go their way.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
