Now named the Day Mile Stakes in honour of Hall Of Fame jockey Pat Day, the previously named Derby Trial Stakes was one of the signature stepping stones for TC horses who did not make it to the KYD; now, it stands as its own race with a $200.000 purse for those who will target the PRK, BEL, Dandy or Travers due to limited racing experience or late entry into their three-year-old season. Won throughout history by the likes of Black Gold, Bimelech, Citation, Tim Tam, Ack Ack and Creme Fraiche, the last 25 years have brought us winners like Housebuster, Alydeed, Peaks And Valleys, Sir Shackleton and Macho Again, with HRP winners that include Little Slick, Native Son and Baffle, all future Grade I winners. While there are no horses of that caliber amongst the 11 entered Saturday, there are still plenty of stakes winners and top class runners, from stables who are looking for those subsequent entrants into big races down the line, especially at the smaller tracks.
1-Lunar Blaze (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Pan Farms)
Lunar Blaze sprung a 66-1 upset in the Eddie Stakes at SA early last month and now looks to double his fun in the Day Mile but the added pace pressure up front, coupled with the extra quarter-mile of racing, might be his undoing at another huge price. That 94-speed rating certainly jumps off the page but he was all out to hold onto the victory in the final 1/16th and if he finds any late closers charging at him, the question is whether he will fold going the longest distance of his career.
Analysis-Tried to continue his improvement for the new owners
Fair Odds-15/1
2-Red Leaf (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Our Athletes)
Red Leaf is a stakes winner at AQU who was briefly on the TC trail with starts in the Southwest and San Felipe but he has finished off the board in his last two starts and will try to rebound for new connections, who paid $330.000 for him only a few weeks ago. He held the lead into the final furlong of the SA Derby before fading into fifth and the cut back to a flat-mile will help his chances of timing his move properly from one of the inside posts.
Analysis-Drops in class and should get a more sensible pace
Fair Odds-8/1
3-One City (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Harrell Racing)
While Red Leaf was claimed after the SA Derby, One City was claimed before the SA Derby and while there was some potential, it never came to fruition after a slow break killed any chances, with only a eighth place finish for his efforts. He was clearly at his best against easier rivals in races like the TUP Derby and the best case scenario is that he can get into the race earlier with a decent break, and make a good account of himself for the current owners.
Analysis-A better break will lead to a better finish
Fair Odds-10/1
4-Winning Barbarino (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Red Square Stables)
Winning Barbarino is a maiden winner with very little success against Graded Stakes company, declining speed ratings and off the board finishes that seem to be getting farther and farther from victory. While workouts have been solid enough, compared to actual entrants in the KYD, he has either been unable to quicken late or hold his position and those factors will add to his odds in an already tough field.
Analysis-Not at this caliber right now
Fair Odds-40/1
5-Fly Millennium (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
Duel Graded Stakes winning sprinter Fly Millennium has done very little going a route of ground but is asked to travel longer than he probably likes once again and the lack of early pace will not help his chances, as he wants runners to fall back to him in the latter stages. This might be a stepping stone to different races down the line but one has to evaluate his chances here and as a closing sprinter, he is effective; as a miler, probably not as much.
Analysis-Asked to go longer than he wants
Fair Odds-12/1
6-Endure The Sky (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Witeout Stables)
Endure The Sky just broke his maiden against mid-level company at LS and is now asked to jump into Grade III company; that kind of jump might work in real-life but does not usually work at HRP and he will be in tough to hit the board in this full field. The horse who beat him a whisker two back came back to finish off-the-board in a minor stakes race and the turnaround from his last is quick, which are factors of class and stamina that cannot be overlooked come KYD Day.
Analysis-Big jump will be too much
Fair Odds-50/1
7-Doctor Moriarty (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)
There are not a lot of big winners in the Day Mile field but Doctor Moriarty has won his last two including a maiden at GP and a N1X allowance in the mud at PRX and the speed rating show that he could be a minor threat at a good distance. He races for a great owner and will be sitting the ideal trip just behind the speed, which will give him both the backing and the wherewithal to get the jump on others and possibly take his third win in a row.
Analysis-Two straight wins have to account for something
Fair Odds-6/1
8-Samurai Warrior (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Downwind Stables)
Highly fancied in the Southwest after finishing second in the Smarty Jones alongside KYD entrant Coup de Lyon, Samurai Warrior showed little in that event and a subsequent optional claiming race at SA and the fear is that he might be over the top and looking for an effort that will not be there. Speed ratings have really declined and he should have done much more in that last race from midpack; all in all, he is not the same horse he was in the Winter and will be a longshot until he shows some sort of rebound.
Analysis-Declining speed ratings spell trouble
Fair Odds-25/1
9-Through The Tulips (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Yahudi Stables)
Every start that Through The Tulips has won, has seen him be the favourite at post time, and for that reason, he gets the top nod in the Day Mile off two huge wins over off-tracks but a big win at PRX in the PA Nursery on his resume as well. Speed ratings are top class, his efforts over all kinds of tracks are well documented and he races for a high percentage owner; package all of that with closing ability from the outside and you have a colt who could be a big force in these kinds of races all season long.
Analysis-Winning machine has all the tools over all types of surfaces
Fair Odds-3/1
10-Awkward Seven (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Mcl Stables)
Third to his inside rival in the PA Nursery, Awkward Seven has not gone forward like that colt has and off a dismal effort in the Rushaway, simply needs to show a ton more to hit the board and will be hard pressed to do so from a far outside stall. The only saving grace is that one-mile races at CD come around one-turn and that could leave him with the chance to move forward early, which might be his only chance of outfinishing others in this big field.
Analysis-Last race leaves a bad taste in the mouth
Fair Odds-30/1
11-Sky Heights (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Australia Wide)
Since being gelded last September, Sky Heights has rattled off four straight wins with plenty of time in between and after a big effort in a N1X allowance at GP, he scored in the Ocala Sophomore which should have him good and tight with the stretch back to a flat mile. That 97-speed rating is one of the best in the field and while he might not be as effective at this distance, there are too many good factors to overlook and the big question will be the outside post, which might force him to use more energy than he would like.
Analysis-Big winning streak will get tested at this distance
Fair Odds-4/1
Overall
Through The Tulips has five wins in seven career starts and a victory at this one-mile distance and with winning on his side, he looks like a logical top contender to score in the Grade III Day Mile Stakes, even if outside starter Sky Heights rides the bigger winning streak into this event. That gelding has been excellent for owner Australia Wide and would not be surprise, nor would Doctor Moriarty, who rides his own streak in after scoring a maiden and allowance win.
Prediction
Win-Through The Tulips (3/1)
Place-Sky Heights (4/1)
Show-Doctor Moriarty (6/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
