Mine That Bird Derby
SUN Race #5 1 1/16m Dirt Stake
Purse $100.000 For Three Year Olds.
This is an interesting race not because it will have any bearing on who makes the KYD field but, more because it is that second division of KYD wannabes and one or two may just emerge from this and get a shot at one of the big qualifiers in the weeks to come. Last year’s winner went on to run fifth in the LA Derby and ran in the BEL, whilst the runner up America First went on to win the TX Derby. So, this isn’t any ordinary $100.000 non graded stakes race and deserves some attention with the top three-year-old races in mind.
1 Sante Park Alydar Stables Amparan F 120 —
Going the right way winning his third race after improving through the summer as a two-year-old he will need to go on again, but things are definitely heading in the right direction. I like the fact that he won pretty dominantly when stepped up to the mile and, he would certainly go on to my watch list for this even though he has drawn a rather average jockey.
2 So Steep Asgar Medellin A 120 —
After winning one of those big-ticket maidens, he failed to go on from that as others had and struggled a little. Running in dirt sprints and turf routes he was given every chance to follow up the maiden win but never really made his mark. He was gelded after a tough season and his works have certainly marked that as a good option and i just wonder whether we will see a more dynamic run today.
3 Tiburon Night Mare Racing Perez M A 120 —
He was highly tried in tough maiden company as a two-year-old but never really threatened the win despite competitive works. This year he has been aimed much lower eventually breaking his maiden at TAM by a very easy four lengths. We know he will stay every yard of this trip which is certainly a plus and there has always been some latent ability, so I think that easy win last time may have given him some confidence.
4 Adjudication Bayou Star Farm Purcell K 120 —
Won his maiden at the 4th time of asking as a two-year-old but was then a shade disappointing when getting one of the last of the slow starts from the slow start engine in the CAC Derby on seasonal debut. I would write that effort off, and his 1.37 flat works are bordering on being good enough for the KYD qualifiers, so I expect a much better effort today.
5 Vieux Jeu Acber Farms Juarez A J Jr 120 —
One of the few that are proven at this sort of level he won a big-ticket maiden really easily at two and then very nearly won the KD Juvenile. Both of those efforts were on the turf but after a disappointing effort in The Pilgrim he was brought back to the dirt. He hated the wet track in the Lecompt last time, and we can forget that effort but was better when fourth in the NY Stallion Series Race. I am not sure he has proven himself a KYD type yet, but a recent gelding operation may have provided the magic improvement he will need to win this race.
6 Alciston Haggis The Sidley Stud Ceballos O F 120 —
On form you would have to question his ability but a sub 1.37 work in January marked him as one that may have some latent ability. That ability may have been helped by a recent gelding operation, but we won’t know that until after this race so if he is your choice then you can make a case, but I would prefer to watch him at this point.
7 Re Aggravation Bayou Star Farm Fuentes L A 120 —
If names and breeding won races, then this one would be an easy winner, but he is another who has disappointed a little after taking a decent maiden at SA early in the juvenile season. Arindel aimed this gelding at the state bred races and he never really kicked n after early promising efforts. Eventually the breeder gave up and put this one to auction where he fetched just $9.000. In his first start for the new stable he again ran a little flat, but the works aren’t bad and if some magic combinations can be found there is some ability there.
8 Benbtal Mb Stables Tohill K S 120 —
Won a little maiden at TAM at the end of last year and then came out as a three-year-old and ran a decent third in an SA optional Claimer. I think this step up in trip will suit him down to the ground, and I really like where his works are at the moment. If he was owned by anyone else, I would say he is the dark horse in the race but with Mb at the mouse, I don’t think anyone including the odds monkeys will miss his chances.
9 Confidence Man Big Guns Stables Gomez E P 120 —
Difficult to weigh up with three of his five races being on the turf, but I am not a great supporter on the individual surface preferences of a horse at HRP and feel he will be just as good on this surface. There are a couple of juicy works that support that theory, and he is one that will be happy with this trip, an outside chance but not a bad one and he may sneak into the money at good odds.
10 Conditional Immunity Nakamura Stables Fuentes M T Jr 120 —
It is always great to see unbeaten horses put their record on the line and this one is three from three so is very interesting indeed. Interesting too that whilst he has a wide gate and has only won at low level, he has the best jockey at the track which is definitely a decent advantage. His works aren’t very encouraging though and, whilst he has won well, it has been at low level tracks, and I am not sure he is ready for this level yet.
11 Only Just The Start TwinTowersRacing Centeno A 120 —
Went from a maiden win at RUI to a grade one which is just the sort of thing that doesn’t faze this trainer. On that occasion it didn’t work, and he was beaten a long way into last place. He came out and won again at fair level and has thrown a very fast 6-furlong work among other pretty ordinary ones. Clearly there is something there, but I am not sure we will see it in this race from this draw.
12 Tivoli D J C Racing Stables Carreno J 120 —
A solid sort but handicapped by the car park draw and will be hard pushed against an even lot. A decent effort in the Rego Park to be second but he will have to improve a fair bit to win this.
SUMMARY
A difficult race to weigh up, I think I would have to go with Benbtal for the win.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
