4/1/23

   17   GP   The FL Derby (GI) [KYD]       

          $1,000.000          3yo             1 1/8m Dirt             122lbs

I write this article with the heaviest of hearts… but, I know, the show must go on…  We look at the field for the 2023 FL Derby (GI), a mile and an eighth test for the TC Trail types and we will have a full gate and a number of story lines to follow in this one.  As I am covering the KYD (GI), this one certainly has all of my attention, and I’ve landed on Fear Me Not as the one to beat.  Betting on Mb Stables is always an easy thing but coming off of that Fountain Of Youth (GII) win, it’s a bit easier today.  I’m going to put Lunar Victory, from the Fractious stable, in the second spot as I see an improvement coming with the visit from the vet.  He was a tiring fourth in the Risen Star (GII), but I think he finds a new focus and should be a beast in this one.  You will probably be able to throw a blanket over a bunch of these if you are trying to hit the trifecta, so let’s ride with these and see how it goes.  Best of luck to everyone!! 

Here’s The Field –   

Things were rolling right along and then he just has a very blah effort in the FoY (GII) at GP in his most recent.  Now he won the Gun Runner and just missed in the Holy Bull (GIII) so he has some real ability, so he could bounce back in a big way here, especially if they go back on the speed. 

Got the job done in the FoY (GII) to certainly grab some attention on the TC Trail.  He tired in the Smarty Jones and closed well to be third in the Withers (GIII), so he appears to be on the way up, and when the are improving, this time of year, for the big barn, you’d best pay attention. 

Two wins from seven starts and got the job done last out closing well to win the TUP Derby.  Obviously, that was vs. lesser than he faces today, but he was third in the KY Jockey Club (GII) so he’s proven that he can run with big horses.  He’s going to be interesting to watch today. 

Broke maiden and won an Alw race, and also shows a tiring third in the Logan, but just didn’t get going in the Battaglia Mem, although he did close a late gap.  He could be a very interesting option as the distances increase, as he seems to want that. 

Broke maiden at CT, then rand a dud in the Smarty Jones but certainly came back big in the Winkfield, closing fast in that six-furlong dash.  It will be interesting to see how that equates in this two-turn graded affair, but he could be a horse to watch. 

Three wins from seven starts, but he hasn’t been successful vs. stakes types.  He did win vs. OptAlw types at SA last out on a muddy SoCal surface, so that could also be something to watch if the clouds roll in for this one… that’s more likely on Sunday. 

This one has me on tilt… only five starts and the vet paid a visit to let him know that the breeding barn will not be in his future.  He had the lead in the Risen Star (GII) and still ran a very solid fourth, but if the change in attitude changes his aptitude, just so so much, he could be a real threat… and may have some odds.

He’s won half of his four starts, back-to-back taking down a MSW at GG then beating OptAlw types over this track.  So, it’s up the ladder and a much longer distance, so he’s going to have to show me he has both as I have to look at some others. 

Got the job done in his fifth trip to the gate, and normally, I’d probably look the other way, but the fact that he did it over the mile and an eighth distance, and in fairly quick time, I think you have to wonder if he finally has the distance he’s always wanted. 

Early Scratch

Nice win in the Holy Bull (GIII) after a few less than great runs, then came back to be fourth beaten a length in the FoY (GII), both over this track.  You have to believe he likes the home cookin’ and could be a horse to watch when they hit the top of the lane. 

Early Scratch

Three wins from his last four starts, and the other was a fourth in the Swale (GIII) where the wet track may have played against him.  He closed in that race as well, looks to like the longer distances, so you may want to put him on your tickets. 

Sold for a pretty penny, then ran third in the FoY (GII) so they got what they were looking for… he looks like a top-notch type and can run with just about any of them.  Moves up a couple of gates with the scratches, closes well… you have to watch him today. 

Only a maiden win but was close in a couple of minor stakes before a pair of bad ones in the Futurity (GIII) at AQU and the Sham (GIII) at SA.  he needs to turn it around or it’s going to be another long day at the office. 

Broke maiden at GG then won a little stakes at TUP before only beating a pair vs. Alw types at FG.  This is another that is stepping up in class and distance, so I’m going to have to turn my attention to a few others in this one. 

Broke maiden vs. low-end claimers, then beat low-end open claimers, was tagged and won a starter Alw over this track, so he’s 3-for-4 and could be any type.  If he draws in, it adds more intrigue to an already open race. 

Broke maiden at PRX on the weeds and was purchased from a low-end, poorly run barn.  Came back to close fast on a wet SoCal surface, so if he draws in, again, it just adds to the storyline.           

COZMAN  2 / 7                Willie’s Green Card   4 / 2 / 5    

Categories: TC 2021-2023