SA Oaks – Grade II [KYO]
1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $400.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.
1 Categorical Destiny Mb Stables Murrill M
This may not look on paper like an Oaks filly but when the entry is trained by Mb stables, draws the ace and is working 1.10 and 3 you have to take it very seriously. The winner of a good sprint maiden at the end of last year she tackled seven furlongs, the furthest she had ever gone on her three-year-old debut but looked a bit weak at the end of that race after traveling in a good position. She came out a month later back over the six and a half furlongs to score in a little Allowance at SUN so one would assume that was around her best trip but since then she has done a 1.37 flat for the mile at home and then returned the good six-furlong work. So whatever magic Mb has, he has worked, and this filly is clearly on the up.
2 Fire Form Mb Stables Wilson E J
The second runner from the yard and as tends to happen with multiple entries she is drawn right next to her stable mate. In contrast to her stable mate, she has looked much more like a filly that would appreciate the Oaks trip but in general her works aren’t quite as good so it will be interesting how these two match up. A good maiden winner over the mile she made up ground in the Busher last time when outpaced by the early speed. Again, her racing position may be down to race pace rather than any running preference, but she has shown she will see out the trip and that may be enough to make her the first choice of the stable mates.
3 Jury Of War Our Athletes Rispoli U
Such is life at HRP here we have a filly that has worked one of the better mile times in the field and yet she has been running at the lowest level in recent starts. Those two wins, one at TUP and one at TAM will have filled her with confidence however and she clearly has ability that outweighs her racing level so far. She will eat up the trip and should travel nicely in midfield, so I would expect her to be coming fast at the end and she may just be the upsetter.
4 Celine D J C Racing Stables Carmouche K
Plenty of form here having won at ungraded level last year and has followed that up with good runs in some top fillies’ races. I really liked her second in the Mazarine BC Stakes, the only time she has run this trip, A truly run race may stretch her stamina, but she should see it out OK and with plenty of black type performances to her name she has experience at this level which some do not.
5 So Classy Asgar Gallardo A A
Highly tried last year she ran some nice races on the turf but has been switched back to the main track for a go at KYO qualification this year. She caught the eye when drawn in the car park and then flying home to grab the AZ Oaks last time, and I had her earmarked for a race like this after that performance. She gets back a bit so a fast pace will suit her style it just remains to be seen what gets thrown up as to whether she can unleash her big finish again today.
6 Calm Fury Mb Stables Bocachica A
The third stable runner from the stable and this one has with outstanding form for a race like this. The bit that leaves us pondering though is that even though she is a BC runner up her works are pretty much the same as her less illustrious stable mates. I guess the only way without form or works to tell which of the three will win will be as they cross the line, but I think out of the three this one will start favorite thanks to its exposed form. After her huge effort in the BC Juvenile fillies, she ran a couple of disappointing efforts, but her last start in the Davona Dale had black booker written all over it, drawn wide she got back off a very fast pace but flew home so quickly she could have just won if there was an extra furlong. A big chance as she gets her best draw for four starts.
7 Tokyo Story Smokey Stover Vazquez R A
We all know how this trainer has a way with the ladies and here is another that could be added to the harem of beauties that tread the Smokey paddocks. After a good juvenile year, she had a decent break after winning the grade two Golden Rod and then reappeared in the Alexander in February. Getting a little outpaced she ran home very strongly to be fifth in an eye-catching effort and will be much sharper today.
8 Appreciate Mo Mentum Farm Maldonado E
A couple of lengths behind Tokyo Story in the Alexander she too went back and ran home well and has since been working very strongly. I have a suspicion based on that effort and the improved works that she may be much closer to Tokyo Story this time and may just be the value bet in the race.
9 Alice Springs London Racing Prat F
Only three starts but the form and the works say this filly could be top level already. After a couple of runs and a win at GG she went to the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes last time and beat a decent field with a big late run. She really could be anything and this draw is a bit of a shame because it makes it very tough for her but a win today and she could be a super star.
11 Long Term Parking TwinTowersRacing Garcia Mar
What a great name for the horse drawn in the car park !!!!!! As ironic as the name is, I certainly am not writing her off as this trainer really knows how to upset the big names in races like this. She ran pretty well to be beaten just two lengths against the boys in the Holy Bull and that run is sandwiched between two wins so the form looks solid. Her works are in the ballpark too, and she may be one of those that comes in at big odds.
SUMMARY
An interesting race where the fillies with the stakes form are working the same as the fillies with lower grade form so it really is anyone’s race. I think Calm Fury and Tokyo Story look the two on form, but I really like Alice Springs and Long Term Parking to offer some great value for the punter.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
