SA Derby – Grade I [KYD]
SA Race #15 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $750.000 For Three Year Olds.

1 Hiei Fractious Centeno D E 122 —

After a good education at two this Patterson bred gelding wound up the season with a strong win in the Grey Stakes stamping him a late hope for the KYD. He disappointed in the Holy Bull on his seasonal reappearance but was much better last time out in the San Felipe when running on strongly to take third beaten less than a length. His works are strong, and he gets a nice draw if he can hold a position behind the leaders and with the fact that he beat a third of this field in the San Felipe you have to rate him a live chance.

2 Raise It Wood Duck Stables Garcia Mar 122 —

A winner of one of those big-ticket maidens last year he was lightly raced with just two starts as a juvenile, but he certainly screamed promise as he went into the Christmas break. In his first start as a three-year-old he led for a long way in the CACup Derby but fell away to be fifth in the end. He was a bit stronger to the line when again trying to make all in the Lewis Stakes but again finished fifth albeit beaten just one length on that occasion. The trainer played the gamer card last time and turned him into a closer for the Battaglia Memorial and lo and behold he again finished fifth this time making late ground to be beaten just a length. Each of those races were from wide draws, so I feel with this perfect draw today the trainer can look to run him how he goes best and after a strong work I expect him to run a big race and turn the trainers start to the season around.

3 Nygard South Shore Stables Gutierrez Mario 122 —

This looks a stretch for this gelding, but the trainer is giving him his one shot at the KYD and why not. There isn’t much in his form lines that suggests he can win this, but his works are pretty good, and you just never know at HRP.

4 Royal Valor Nakamura Stables Maldonado E 122 —

After a strong mile work, I was expecting a better effort in the LA Derby last time, but he was a bit absent in finishing eighth after looking dangerous in 4th with a couple of furlongs to run. An even better mile works says he is still on the boil so I am not willing to write him off after that effort, but he does have something to prove today and will need to do it on the track rather than the gallops today.

5 Sins On Broadway Arindel Hernandez C J 122 —

After a great start to the year in taking the Mucho Macho Man on New Years Day he was aimed at the KYD qualifiers when taking on the Lewis Stakes last time. Stalking the lead, he struggled to quicken but kept on well enough to run fourth doing no harm to his KYD prospects. Last time out however it all came apart in the San Felipe when he settled back in the field and ran an awful race to tend up tenth and beaten a long way. His works times give us the clue that he may be a bit inconsistent, so I am not willing to say that he is only as good as that last run, but he will certainly have to be on his very best behavior to win this one,

6 Flat Cup Fractious Zayas E J 122 —

The trainer has a strong hand in this race, and this is their second runner and again he looks a lively chance. Claimed as a two-year-old he looked a bit better than that but has certainly made a bigger impact as a three-year-old going tow from two with a game win from a wide draw in the Hutcheson Stakes last time. I really liked that last effort and his works are certainly right up there, so he could easily take another big step in this higher grade today.

7 Prevent Mb Stables Elliott S 122 —

Lightly raced with just two starts as a juvenile he is right on the cusp of Derby qualification and probably just needs a top 3 finish to get himself into the picture. In his two starts this year he has been third both times beaten a length but as is normal at HRP he has raced two completely different styles and yet came out with a similar result. Whether it is the click of the instructions or the race engine playing its games the hope today is that he will run somewhere in between those efforts and if he does then I can see him having a strong chance. On race times he ran better as a front runner and set a fast pace in the TAM Derby which only a freak could’ve maintained but still kept on well for third. I think if the race engine allows him to stalk the lead rather than do the work himself, he could be hard to beat and if that sort of run works for anyone it is this stable.

8 Crack The Party Maxmillion Farm Jimenez A 122 —

A very promising effort when second at long odds in the Southwest set this one up as an under worker, the radar type for the KYD, but he was a big disappointment in the San Felipe last time. Gelded to try and erase that run he has been working on the turf, so I feel this is a last chance for the son of Safecracker on the main track. He has the ability but may be up against it.

9 Calling All Angels D J C Racing Stables Silvera Ru 122 —

Fairly good in overnight sprints he took on a route for the first time in the TAM Derby and ran pretty well in finishing fifth. Fast enough on the gallops, we still have to take his stamina on trust but his trainer sticks with it to give him one more chance.

10 Winter Book Fractious Franco M 122 —

The trainer could easily take most of the KYD points on offer with a third runner that has a chance in this open field. He was proving pretty game in some strong maidens before finally winning one in February on this track and then went straight to the big time with a run in the LA Derby. Running from gate 14 he was certainly up against it but ran a pleasing race to be fifth, a little one paced after some early effort from the draw. He doesn’t get a great gate again today but if he can slot in somewhere I wouldn’t put him out of a winning chance.

11 Confidence Man Big Guns Stables Hernandez R M 122 —

This has the look of a ‘have a go’ type entry but he is not the worst and if there is a suicidal pace and he comes late I can see him running well. Of course, with a wide draw the opposite may happen and he could fly the gate and lead. Either way he doesn’t set the form page on fire but works well enough, so whilst his chances aren’t obvious you can’t write him off.

12 State Of Fury Alydar Stables Luzzi L J 122 —

Winner of the grade one Pharaoh as a juvenile, he had a poor run in the BC before bouncing back with a big second place in the Springboard Mile. Those efforts would’ve put him on the list of probable KYD qualifiers, but it has gone a bit wrong this year firstly with an awful run in the Southwest and then a pretty average but a bit better effort in the San Felipe. Today will be the acid test with two starts to get into the new engine and a strong work but this gate will not make it easy for him to find his best form.

13 At The Gates Mb Stables Loveberry J 122 —

Unlucky for some gate 13 is filled by the second Mb Stables entry who wouldn’t be the strongest three-year-old in the stable but has shown a few glimmers to make his chances fair if not the best. He stalked a fast pace on an off track in the Southwest so it was expected that he wouldn’t see the race out but then had his chances in the San Felipe but could not raise the finish needed. He is not bad, in anyone else’s yard may be their best but this gate will make tactics very tough, and it is hard to say he could win.

14 What A Joke Delta Farms Kimura K 122 —

Finally the car park goes to Delta Farms and What A Joke, which may be the thoughts going through their head when this draw came out. It will be time for this self-professed master tactician to put all their skill to work and if a plan comes off well, he wouldn’t be a shock winner. I liked his effort in the Davis Stakes when running on nicely for third last time and when you consider he was claimed for just $9.000 as a two-year-old, he would be a Cinderella winner of this race. The works are a tick off but if the race pans out a certain way, he is good enough to take advantage.

SUMMARY

No stand outs for me in this race but a nice mix of up and comers and those trying to recapture their best. If I could take a bet on the winning trainer, it would be Fractious as they have three strong entries here and any of them could win. Outside that trainer then I think we haven’t seen the best of Royal Valor and Prevent will be a popular choice for the win.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES