The 18th Running of the G1 Apple Blossom Handicap
Saturday, April 15, 2023
OP Race #2 $1,000.000
F&M 4+ Handicap Weights 11/16
#1 Green Eyed Beauty (Smokey Stover/M. Pedroza Jr 117): Filly sports a 12-8-0-2 record entering this; however, this is, definitively, the best group she’s faced. Her first, and only, graded try saw her finish 5th of six in last year’s G3 Iowa Oaks. Started her ’23 campaign in a $65.000 handicap at 5.5 furlongs where she was a DH 5th before taking an open SA allowance. Latest is the only race on this engine, so will be interesting to see how this forwardly placed runner utilizes this rail draw.
#2 Karloffs Monster (TwinTowersRacing/D. Davis 123): Defending BC Distaff champ started her 4yo campaign with a victory in G3 HOU Ladies Classic before returning here last month with a close runner-up effort in the G2 Azeri. Champ draws well, but she is spotting some ultra-classy individuals five-to-seven pounds in here. Dual G1 winner obviously makes sense from a class standpoint; however, few horses in the game can spot such a group a five-pound weight break.
#3 Fearless Move (Asgar/Ru. Silvera 117): 4yo has put together a solid, if unspectacular, career with five wins and a second from 12 starts. Tried G1 company at KEE in the Spinster back in October where she managed to come home 8th of 14. Ended ’22 with back-to-back wins (including $100.000 stake) in December before getting her season started with a 4th-placed finish in a SA N4X in early March. Catches a solid weight break from the high weight, but she’s within a pound of her other nine rivals.
#4 Exactly (Smokey Stover/F. Geroux 118): Last year’s G1 KYO victress had to wait until December to visit the WC again. Her two starts in ’23 have seen her finish up the track over courses labeled “muddy” and “good”, respectively. If you toss those efforts, she becomes quite intriguing on this engine. Hopefully she gets a dry surface this time, but it’s been a pretty good while since we’ve seen her “A” game, and that is exactly what she will need if she plans to contend here.
#5 Naples (Arindel/C.J. Hernandez 118): After a super sophomore campaign that saw her reach unprecedented heights, she came back to mere mortal status last year. Started her ’23 season with a $75.000 GG overnight score before getting drawn wide in last month’s Azeri where she set the tempo before finishing 5th, beaten just a length. Draws much better here and gets five pounds from the last-out runner-up here. This feels like the spot that she re-asserts herself in this division, if that is to happen.
#6 American Sky (Iolaus Racing/J. Talamo 116): Filly was bought for just $20.000 at the end of last season and has put together three consecutive strong efforts to start her ’23 campaign. The 3rd in the 7f, G2 Santa Monica has been sandwiched by a pair of wins at 5.5f and 8.5f, respectively. Gets in as a co-lightweight, but she’ll only receive a pound or two from eight of these runners. She has definitely been more forwardly placed since the barn/engine switch, and she only needs to show a bit more progression to be a factor here.
#7 Shining Moments (RNP Stables/R. Bejarano 118): Equally effective on turf/dirt, mare will be looking to drop back and settle into her stride before being produced for run. She made up six lengths in the latter stages of ’23 debut, but that still just saw her come home 10th, beaten three lengths in a GP turf G1. Last-out was a DH 3rd-place effort here when she rallied from well back in G2 Azeri to only be beaten a length for all of it. She may need a little help on the front end, but she’ll be hitting her best stride when they reach the lane.
#8 Surrey (Smokey Stover/D. Van Dyke 118): Uber-consistent filly has finished ITM in 15 of 19 starts with seven wins. Has dipped her toes in the graded pool a handful of times, and she just missed in a G3 in November. Hasn’t faced G1-types since she was a juvenile, but she’s started this season with a win at GP and a runner-up at SA, respectively, against N4X foes, so she’s holding her form quite well. Seems to be equally adept on the front end herself or chasing a target from a length or two back. Only drawback is the fact that she only receives weight from the two, but G1’s aren’t supposed to be easy.
#9 Always A Virgin (Tinkey/T. Gaffalione 118): Had a dominant four-race stretch in the spring/summer of last year when she went from MSW-winner to G3-winner. Hasn’t fared quite as well in her latest four efforts; however, it’s hard to say she’s fallen off of form given some of her narrow defeats. Did not enjoy the SA experience as she caught a “muddy” surface for G1 Beholder Mile, but you can draw a line through that effort should we get a fast strip on Saturday. Just a matter of time before she finds the WC again, and she gets a positive pilot switch for this.
#10 Present Tense (Mb Stables/D.E. Centeno 117): Filly broke her maiden at 2nd-asking and was subsequently entered in 13 consecutive stakes events. She bested State-draw but, G1 fillies, and G3 males during that stretch before finally being given a confidence-booster at CD in an October NW3. Took one more crack at G3 company in December where she was runner-up. beaten just three-quarters of a length, then made her 4yo bow in a GP G3 where she was 5th, beaten only a length. Filly will have to work out a trip from this draw but wouldn’t be surprised to see her best effort.
#11 Lady Narloff (TwinTowersRacing/M. Franco 116): 5yo mare has a history of running hot-and-cold in her 23-race career. When she’s “hot” she’s a MGSW including G1 La Brea at the end of her sophomore campaign. When she’s “cold”, she has a tendency to just throw a total non-effort. Now, she enters here on the “coldest” run of her career; however, much like the bad outings, sometimes the good efforts just pop up. In her favor, she does own a graded win over this strip as she took the G3 Bayakoa in February of ’22. Didn’t win the draw, but she gets weight from all but one.
Final Analysis: This appears to be an ultra-competitive renewal of the G1 Apple Blossom. Could have played Karloffs Monster at 120 lbs, but the 123 lbs seems to be a tad too much to overcome against this group. Let’s go with 5-10-4-9 and hope for the best in the G1 Apple Blossom. Good luck to all involved!
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES
