May 27, 2016

The Grade III AP Classic starts a series of races over the turf course in Chicago geared towards horses headed to the Grade I Secretariat and while some very good horses have won this $150.000 event including Smoken Andy, Meadowbrook Parkway and even BC Juvenile Turf winner Got A Pal, it has never led to victory in the big race and seven solid three-year-olds are hoping to change that. There is a definite favourite among the field as the Juvenile Turf winner comes back for his third start of the year but in his way stand a highly regarded prospect from the TC trail and two recent stakes winners on the turf who seem to be rounding into form at the perfect time.

1-Prudent Romany (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Drabfantasy)

Like many of the Drabfantasy three-year-olds, Prudent Romany is already a stakes winner in state-bred company but could only close for third in the Miami Mile against older runners and is now asked to carry more weight against good rivals once again, with an inside gate to overcome. Speed ratings have gotten better with each start but he has been unable to close enough at this extended distance on the grass and he will have to show a little more late momentum if he wants to upend this talented field of three-year-olds.

Analysis-Needs to translate his stakes winning form to the grass

Fair Odds-8/1

2-Icicle Dawn (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Barcelona Farms)

BC Juvenile Turf winner Icicle Dawn was smartly kept on the grass for his first two starts of 2016 when he could have taken the road of Laffin To Mia on the road to the TC and after closing with a huge rush to finish second in the Transylvania, he gets a similar set-up here but over a more forgiving course. The competition is much the same but he should be up to the task and while others have been efforts in their last, this gelding has the back class to handle things and should be right there at the end.

Analysis-Grade I winner has all the goods to win

Fair Odds-2/1

3-Fast Thomas (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Brave)

Fast Thomas was so impressive winning his N1X allowance at PRX that he was made a single-digit factor in the Grade I AR Derby but those colts proved to be too much and he takes a drop in class, and switch in surface, over to AP for this contest. A single three-furlong workout does not warrant enough confidence to make him a win contender but he could be a minor threat for a piece with the hope that improvement over the surface leads to big things down the line.

Analysis-Too little to fall back on for the victory

Fair Odds-10/1

4-Tokyo Secret (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Tiratzo)

Tokyo Secret really steps up his game in the Sophomore Turf at TAM and closed like a rocket to score the victory in a very quick final time and two good turf efforts make him a big choice here, despite the step up in class and company. Speed ratings are top notch and he worked well enough at GP back in mid-April to show that he certainly likes the surface so look for him to sit back and make a final run with at least a placing assured when all is said and done.

Analysis-Will be last early but closing sharply

Fair Odds-4/1

5-Pump Action Shotgun (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

A winner of the Awad at BEL at a juvenile, Pump Action Shotgun has not been able to duplicate those efforts in three subsequent starts and after faltering in the English Channel at GP, will be hard pressed to close enough against proven rivals to finish with a share here. He seems to be the type that needs a very fast early pace up front and without a lot of speed signed on, that style will not be supported and he will have to get into the race early if he wants to grab any of the top four placings.

Analysis-Not the same colt he was as a two-year-old

Fair Odds-15/1

6-Locked Down (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Broken Spoke Stables)

Finding the right form cycle is the key to unlocking Locked Down but his score in the Woodhaven certainly means he is going in the right direction and he could just be finding his strides as the distances get longer. He stalked perfectly in that spot and got up in time for the big win and with an outside draw, will employ the same tactic which could lead to the same result for a gelding who has looked good in the morning and looked good on the track as well.

Analysis-Outside stalking trips are his bread and butter

Fair Odds-3/1

7-A Little Influence (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-The Sidley Stud)

A Little Influence prepped for the AP Classic with a long distance event at GG against older rivals and while not disgraced, he now has to carry more weight against better company and that makes him a minor player rather than a big shot at the win. He was only able to for third in an evenly run race and with the quicker pace here, he might be farther back like he was in the Juvenile Turf and that kind of running style does not suit him when others will be closing faster in the final furlongs.

Analysis-Caught between a quick pace and better closers

Fair Odds-8/1

Overall

Icicle Dawn looks to be the best choice for victory in the Grade III AP Classic, with a score in the BC Juvenile Turf and a close second in the Transylvania as proof of his class, power and hard closing ability. Locked Down was excellent last time at AQU but will be behind his rival to the outside and will have to swoop past him for victory while Tokyo Secret could be setting the pace and if left alone, might be able to steal it in a wire-to-wire effort.

Prediction

Win-Icicle Dawn (2/1)

Place-Locked Down (3/1)

Show-Tokyo Secret (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES