Commentator ($200.000 Purse)
BEL- For Three Year Olds and Upward Foaled in NY
One Mile on the Dirt
May 30, 2016

As we honor those troops who served in battle on Memorial Day, we will also have a good day of racing at BEL, unlike a typical Monday.  One such race on the card is the third running of the Commentator, a race for older NY-breds on the dirt, going a mile.  Looking at the race, you would almost think that most horses were designated a special name to race on this day.  We’ll have Strong Heart, something certainly all these troops have had.  We’ll have an Angelic General who may have also been a Skullcruncher, remember the Civil War with Stars And Bars and American Horror, but Dream It Again for the better days.  Many Foreigners were involved and paid the price as well for our country, which includes the beauty of Southern Cal.   Alright, with that out of the way, let’s race!

#1- Skullcruncher (Hawaiian Shirt Guy, ridden by J J Castellano)- He is still very lightly races, having not raced at all as a two or a three year old.  Skullcruncher was purchased this year in the March auction, and would debut in early April.  He has since raced three times, which includes breaking his maiden over PIM mud two weeks ago.  Not much else that can really be said about him at this point, so don’t take the lack of a write up meaning he should be dismissed, just not much to say on him right now!  This is quite a move up, and possibly tough considering that he is also carrying six more pounds then several of his opponents here.

#2- Strong Heart (Mb Stables, ridden by L Saez)- Red Rioja and Dammit Jenn, where have we seen that before?  Ah yes, Strong Heart is indeed a full brother to the great Commanding.  The parents also produced another graded winner in Caught Red Hoofed, so if Strong Heart were to win this race, it would mark the third stake winner they will have produced.  Strong Heart also has a great conformation, so it’s a no brainer that he will be in demand for a second career.  That will wait, as right now he is showing plenty of potential on the racetrack, and even if he didn’t have the bloodlines he does, we would be looking at him as a rising star.  He is working exceptionally well, and I like the way that he won his last start.  Strong Heart is entered into a stake here for the first time, but has all the tools. Will he earn a commanding win, or be caught red hoofed?

#3- Angelic General (Gdp Inc, ridden by I Ortiz Jr)– He will be making his 34th career start in this race, which will make the veteran six year old the most experienced out on the track.  He’s been consistent over the course of this career, and has run in many graded stakes, though the best he has finished in one of them is second.  There is one ungraded stake win to his credit, which goes back to the beginning of 2015.  Last month, he cut back on his distance and raced in a similar NY-bred event, the Affirmed Success, and was second.  This is a field that it looks as though he can handle to pick up that second win, but will have to do it while carrying six more pounds then several key rivals.

#4- Stars And Bars (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Made a late bid to try and get into the KYD with an entry in the Grade 3 Spiral, but came up well short of winner Dogs Got Wings in that race.  Other then that, Stars and Bars has been waving his flag on northern ground, with four of his last five race being with the NY-bred condition.  One of those was a stake attempt, coming in February in the $100.000 Gander, and he was beaten only by the well accomplished Engine Failure.  Two weeks ago, he handled the BEL slop in impressive fashion, taking a six horse allowance by two lengths. This will be his fourth race in nine weeks.

#5- Southern Cal (Alydar Stables, ridden by J Alvarado)- After a solid two year old campaign, Alydar Stables has advanced the career of Southern Cal into ungraded stakes, and he has been rewarded with a second place finish and a pair of third to show for it, and also an off the board finish in the Grade 3 El Camino.   Will this finally be the race that he becomes a stake winner?  As a three year old, he is carrying six less pounds then the older horses, and I do think he is on his best form right now, as shown by recent SRF figures.  If he can duplicate a mid-90’s number here, which is in his wheelhouse though maybe not a given.  A problem may be his running style here, as he is a deep closer, and I am not seeing much pace in this.

#6- Dream It Again (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J L Ortiz)- A winner of two out of nine thus far in his career.  After winning his debut race, he picked up his second win rather quickly after, and then it was off to take on stakes company, including the Grade 1 Champagne where he finished 11 of 12 over BEL slop.  It started a string of four races where was 11th of 12, 6th of 7, 8th of 8, and 12th of 12, so there was a lot of dreaming again evident there.  He was eventually dropped out of graded company, and took 3rd in a $40.000 stake.   Dream It Again steps it up again here but will have to starting backing up the confidence that the trainer has in him on the track.  This is a good race to start doing that.

#7- Foreigner (Australia Wide, ridden by J Bisono)- After purchasing this gelding in private sales for $75.000, Australia Wide has done everything but win with it.   Prior to the sale, he has a pair of wins for the undisputed king of the free track, Spinetingling; but since the sale his best result is a runner up finish in an optional claimer at SA.  Foreigner absolutely knows how to be in the mix at the end, and with a little more luck, we could be talking about a five-time winner here.  Australia Wide knows this and therefore doesn’t hesitate to put him against this crowd with the six pound allowance.  He’ll contend, but in the end, I see a similar race line to his previous ones forthcoming.

#8- American Horror (Night Rider Stables, ridden by J Rosario)- Back in November, Night Rider won a shake amongst a total of trainers to pick up this Risen Ruler colt for a $25.000 claiming price.  Prior to the claim, he had a solid career for D J C Racing Stables, but never could take that step forward into stakes competition.   Night Rider Stables has been patient since the claim, placing him only in three optional claimers, and earning a trio of second place finishes.  With a couple favorable headbobs, however, two of those could have been wins, and this trainer more then any knows how much of a close call that type of result is.  So like Foreigner, he is placed into this race off of the close calls that were not quite wins.   Unlike Foreigner, however, he is carrying 124 pounds instead of 118.

Prediction: 2-5-7-8

— NS

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded