June 7, 2016
Each day at BEL leading up the biggest race of the weekend has a top class line-up races and the feature on Friday afternoon is the Grade II NY, a now $500.000 race for older fillies and mares who excel at longer distances on the turf and will use this as a stepping stone to the Diana, Beverly D and BC F&M Turf. Originally a race for both males and females, it was won in the early days by Alsab, Stymie and Hill Prince, with the latter years bringing winners like Just A Game, Mairzy Doates, Noble Damsel, Sabin, Soaring Softly, Perfect Sting and Mauralakana.
Donna Jean was really the first big winner of this event at HRP, taking down the 2008 edition as part of a huge career that saw her earn five Grade I wins and nearly $4500.000, while Valibert won in 2011 as one of her 14 Graded Stakes, without a single Grade I race amongst them. Flambetta won in 2012 and added the BC F&M Turf later that year but California Bear could only manage a charging second one year later while Volare won last year over an extremely soft course and comes back to defend her title over what should be a firm turf. Standing in her way is a solid group of five rivals but shockingly, the combined win total of the six is only five all season long and someone is going to have to really step up and run a big one to take down the top prize.
1-Volare (Six-year-old black mare / Owner-Axeman)
Six years old yet still one of the top mares in the NY field, Volare is back to try and repeat under much different circumstances than last year but faced a suspect bunch and will only need a repeat of her victory in the Sheepshead Bay to win this event a second time. The winner of that race was actually an early scratch so the going should be that much easier and with pace to her outside, it should set up for her nice late kick and hopefully, a run at passing $1500.000 in lifetime earnings.
Analysis-Solid mare looks for back-to-back wins in this race
Fair Odds-3/1
2-Condottieris Fox (Four-year-old gray filly / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)
Condottieris Fox capped off a huge 2015 campaign with a big score in the Grade I QE II Cup at KEE but has been unable to duplicate that effort in five starts since and comes into the NY off a third in the Beaugay, which might be enough to warrant a minor look with the extra 1.5-furlongs. Speed ratings have stalled and so has her ability to get close to the lead while pressing into the final fractions and if she does not have enough speed to chase, her chances of winning will certainly be muted despite her previous form.
Analysis-Has stalled in her attempt to get back to the top echelons
Fair Odds-8/1
3-Altered Skeleton (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Australia Wide)
A Grade I winner and runner-up in the BC F&M Turf last year, Altered Skeleton backed up badly in the Wiley at KEE going shorter than this and after changing hands twice in the interim, finds herself in rebound mode but at a distance much more suited to her style. Speed was an asset of hers as a sophomore and she would be advised to use that strategy once again but a modest pace up front will help and it is all about timing, something her new jockey knows all about and will be employing for her new connections.
Analysis-Not that good at KEE but this could be a rebound
Fair Odds-10/1
4-Mentioned Honorably (Five-year-old bay mare / Owner-Mb Stables)
Grade I winner Mentioned Honorably was in the Just A Game this weekend last year and came away with a second-place finish going one-mile but stretches out for the ten-furlongs for the NY and should be well suited to the distance, having won the Flower Bowl over this course back in October. An incredible prep at WO came with stunning efficiency and that same jockey is back in the saddle so look for an ideal stalking trip and a truly powerful kick; one of the best in the field and one that should send her to one of the top placings yet again.
Analysis-Ideal prep and ideal trip scenario equal big finish
Fair Odds-7/5
5-Whiskey Wings (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)
Whiskey Wings is yet another four-year-old in the NY field who was excellent as a three-year-old but has been unable to step up as an older runner and after fading badly in the Bewitch at KEE, will try to cut back to a more reasonable distance with eyes on setting the early fractions. She was just off the pace in the Grade I Taylor last year and surprised everyone with a big win and set all the splits at SA two back in a wire-to-wire win, an effort that might be good enough to win here but one that will be need to duplicated with no pressure, lest she fade in the final furlongs.
Analysis-Needs things her own way up front or she might fold
Fair Odds-10/1
6-Vertigineux (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Despite the fact that her best effort to date came over the turf in the Sand Springs, Vertigineux is probably a main track filly and after three straight off-the-board finishes, needs a complete turnaround against tougher rivals to battle for a major award. A single workout over the course was solid but she has really been a midpack player in her last two turf outings and on paper, will have to get into the race earlier if she wants to contend against proven and classy turf females.
Analysis-Best suited for a serious return to the main track
Fair Odds-20/1
Overall
Based on recent performance, there really is only one major choice for victory in the Grade II NY and that is Mentioned Honorably, who comes in off a big win at WO going long for top outfit Mb Stables and should get the ideal stalking trip behind questionable speed. Volare is the defending champion and was a sharp second over this course last time out, with a repeat of her win at GP more than good enough to win from the inside stall, while Condottieris Fox was an even third in the Beaugay but has shown more in the past and could be up for a small piece with the right closing kick.
Prediction
Win-Mentioned Honorably (7/5)
Place-Volare (3/1)
Show-Condottieris Fox (8/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
