Debutante
CD Race #8 6f Dirt Stake
Purse $225.000 For Fillies Two Years Old.

These early two year old races have become a race between the big-ticket maiden winners with nothing else getting a look in so once again we have to pick over very similar form and try and pick a winner based on works and winning race times. Here is how they line up:

1 Fake Sunset Arkansas Elite Garcia Mar 119 —

Took its maiden in 57 and 3 on its second attempt and is working a very healthy 1.11 and 2 making it one of the fastest six-furlong workers in the field. The owner breeder once again proves that you don’t need to be a big stable to turn out a good one and the way this one has seen out its races suggests it will love can’t. A winning chance if she doesn’t get buried on the rail.

2 Gulfstream 5 Oquinn Farm Loveberry J 119 —

You can’t do better than two from two and this one stepped up nicely from its SUN maiden win to take a PRX allowance last time running out the five and a half like six won’t be a problem. Her works for six furlongs are right up with the best of these and once again we see a smaller breeder coming up with the goods. I like the draw and I like this one to run a huge race.

3 House Of Balloons Smokey Stover Hernandez C J 119 —

Won her SA maiden in a sharp 51 and 1 in April at only 15.1hh you have to think there is more to come. She dipped under the 1.12 in only her second public work and coming from one of the biggest breeders in the game you have to think she is cherry picked for this.

4 Soho Sorceress Allinthegate Centeno D E 119 —

She took her a win at her second start in a State bred SA maiden but broke the tap in a slower time than House Of Balloons won on her debut so I feel she may just be behind that one at this stage. Having said that runs under the belt are key in these early juvenile stakes races and she too has stopped the clock in under 1.12 for the six furlongs.

5 Ashley Panther Williams9 Hernandez R M 119 —

Won her second start at PRX in a 51 and 2 which again puts her a shade behind House Of Balloons. Her six furlongs works are OK but her recent seven furlong works says she will be strong at the end of this race and in what is likely to be a close race that could be a key factor.

6 Jawaher D J C Racing Stables Lopez P 119 —

Took a state bred at BEL on her second time of asking in 57 and 3 which is pretty standard but good enough to put her in this. She looks like the six furlongs will help her and clocked a 58 and 3 work before that race which with normal improvement says she will be competitive here.

7 Smokin Con Artist Mb Stables Gaffalione T 119 —

Bought for $155.000 by the stable that already breeds the full quota, I feel the champion went that deep because of her strong 57 and 2 winning time in that CD maiden. Her works since haven’t been awe inspiring so despite Mb Stables confidence she may need to find something here. She gets a slightly better draw today after two wide ones, but the middle draws can be tough to overcome of she gets the squeeze early on.

8 Lawbreaker Diablo Diablo Beschizza A 119 —

The most experienced filly in the race with three starts she too managed a 57 and 2 in her lasts tart when taking a WO maiden. Clocking under the magical 1.12 in her works and with miles under the belt she could end up being the dark horse in the race.

9 Runaround Sue Party Martyparty Velazquez J R 119 —

Clocked her maiden win in a fairly sedate 51 and 4 on her second start she may have a bit to find with some of these. She had the perfect draw too that day and is stuck in the nine box today so may well find it hard to keep up with them.

10 Cebrity News Establo Pichon Geroux F 121 —

Gets a penalty for sharing can’t win at TUP last time you can’t knock her two from two record, but she has been winning at the fair level and this is a big step up.

11 Shtorm Arindel Saez L 119 —

Stopped the clock at 51 and 3 in winning her maiden at CD and comes from one of the bigger breeders so is sure to be up for the challenge today. Her works are a little off the best of them in this, so you have to trust her raw ability to take her through if she is your pick.

12 Remember This Day Pan Farms Cohen D 119 —

Only just got home by a nose to win her maiden at CD on her second attempt but stopped the clock at 57 and 2 so is right up there with the best at five furlongs. Her works are strong, but she has to cope with the car park draw which in a six-furlong dash like this can be tough to overcome.

SUMMARY

As always almost impossible to pick just the one horse here as we are relying on form which is all very comparable and works that are very similar. A lot will just come down to luck and what the race engine does with them but in a race which will probably come down to tenths and hundredths of a second, I am going with House Of Balloons as the winner. I think the two inside her Gulfstream 5 and Fake Sunset have claims and as an outsider bet, I will go for Lawbreaker to use her experience.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded