June 8, 2016
Although it has only been around since 1994, the Grade I Just A Game Stakes has quickly become one of the most important and lucrative events on the F&M Turf schedule and as such, attracts the best of the best in the division year after year, in both real-life and at HRP. Numerous BC winners and champions have won this race, named for a former champion herself, including Perfect Sting, Intercontinental, Ventura, Tapitsfly, Stephanie’s Kitten and the amazing Tepin, while HRP has seen the likes of Holocust, Bollinger, A Little Oblivion and Attraction, who is back to defend her title after a near stakes-record performance last year. While you have some excellent runners over both the dirt and the turf amongst the solid field of 11 entered, favouritism really does lie with the champion, coming in off wins in two of the top events for this group at the specialist distance.
1-Eva The Diva (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Our Athletes)
A Grade I winner of the DMR Oaks in her first start for the current connections, Eva The Diva has been unable to duplicate that effort in six subsequent starts but comes into the Just A Game off two big efforts including a sharp second in the CD Distaff Turf Mile and could be ripe for another big effort from the fence. Her best efforts have come at nine-furlongs but she did win the Senorita at SA last year by sitting just off the early fractions so maybe a stalking trip is the best way for her to finally come through with another big win.
Analysis-Knocking at the door but needs to really come through
Fair Odds-8/1
2-Skeleton Spy (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Australia Wide)
Owner Australia Wide has been stocking up on the Skeleton Key offspring and their second big filly purchase is Skeleton Spy, who was brilliant at WO in a one-mile turf allowance and now gets to tackle the big girls again in hopes of earning her first stakes win. It is tough to imagine that her five wins have all come against lower level company but she has really unable to set the pace and hold on against the top fillies and mares and unless something has changed in the new barn, that might be case again with so much speed signed on.
Analysis-Speed in the past needs to be harnessed
Fair Odds-15/1
3-Wild Weather (Five-year-old bay mare / Owner-Chili King Stables)
Wild Weather was scratched from the Grade II NY to go in this much tougher spot but there really is no harm or foul since she more than earned back her $10.000 purchase price for her last connections, and could earn back her $125.000 purchase price with another big effort here. A wire-to-wire winner of the Sheepshead Bay in her last, that 99-speed rating is the best of any last out figure in the field and she has worked well in the interim, making her a logical contender to grab the early lead and take this field well into the stretch, even if she does not prove victorious.
Analysis-Blew them away last time but this is much tougher
Fair Odds-6/1
4-You Can Do It (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
You Can Do It earned more last year than all but two entrants in this Just A Game field but that only came from a single victory and she will need to show that she can actually win a big race to be counted amongst the best of her division, or even in this event. She was excellent in the Hillsborough but came up empty when it counted in the Wiley and regression in speed ratings is a huge cause for concern when so many others are revving up coming to the biggest events of the Summer and Fall.
Analysis-Flat at KEE becomes a big red flag in this field
Fair Odds-20/1
5-Last Voyager (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Canny Lodge)
Grade II Fox winner Last Voyager was clearly at her best with the addition of a shadow roll and ran the exact same race in the CD Distaff Turf Mile, which on that day was not nearly good enough to handle the class. She gets her top jockey back in the saddle and she was solid in a workout over the track but she really is jumping up into tougher competition and will probably be passing rivals late versus really challenging for the victory.
Analysis-Could not make a dent at CD but might find another wind here
Fair Odds-12/1
6-Wire Z Wire (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Diablo Diablo)
Another one of the very win-shy types in the Just A Game field, Wire Z Wire finally got back on track with a docile win in the Grade III Gallorette but has also been beaten by many of these runners in previous races and will most likely be a longshot here, even with that win. The shorter races could be right up her alley, she has won at the distance before and comes in with some blistering workouts; all in all, worth more than a look at a long price to possibly close for a minor award.
Analysis-Will be underneath the best at long odds
Fair Odds-15/1
7-Three Little Birds (Five-year-old bay mare / Owner-Threshold)
Three Little Birds clearly held her own in minor stakes and even Graded Stakes company last season and has started off 2016 with only a pair of efforts but both have come at one-mile and while her start in the Royal Heroine was a bit lackluster, her allowance effort showed some determination. These 8- and 8.5-furlong events seem to be right in her wheelhouse and she does have speed from the outside, making her a fresh threat for an improved effort that could see her take one of the top four placings.
Analysis-Comes in fresh from the West
Fair Odds-10/1
8-Attraction (Five-year-old gray mare / Owner-Mm Racing)
There is little dispute that, on paper, Attraction is the mare to beat in the Just A Game and a repeat of either performance in the Wiley or CD Distaff Turf Mile will be good enough to win this event, especially over the one-turn course at BEL. A dazzling wire-to-wire winner of this race last year from post 5 of 6, she is equally adept sprinting or going longer and this one-mile trip is perfect for her; add in a jockey who knows her well this season and a series of one-mile workouts and you have a mare who is looking to press past $4000.000 in lifetime earnings with much more seemingly left to come.
Analysis-Deserving favourite off two huge wins
Fair Odds-Even
9-Sure Shot Lady (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Crocker Ggs)
Sure Shot Lady was a $100.001 auction purchase back in March and has proven to be a solid four-year-old, earning back that price with two solid wins including a score in the Beaugay over this same course from off the early fractions. Those two speed ratings are the best she has ever posted and she can employ a variety of tactics yet still find enough to get to the wire first and with experience over the course, she warrants a big look on Saturday as an upset chance to the prohibitive favourite.
Analysis-BEL winner could be sitting pretty outside
Fair Odds-4/1
10-Broomsticks Copy (Four-year-old black filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)
Second in the Wiley and fourth in the Sheepshead Bay, both in back of winners who she faces again here, Broomsticks Copy comes back off a very short rest after getting stopped cold in the Gamely and will be happy to get an outside gate and hopefully, a clear run. She is a multiple stakes winner at one-mile and clearly knows how to handle the best of the division, with her BC F&M title as proof, so look for a big rebound and return to form for a four-year-old who always gets better as the year goes on.
Analysis-Throw out her last and you have a serious win contender
Fair Odds-3/1
11-Christine (Five-year-old bay mare / Owner-Wolfs Den)
First or second in 20 of 26 lifetime starts, Christine only has a pair of turf efforts under her belt and while both have resulted in victories, one was her maiden back in 2013 and the other was a wire-to-wire win over a soft turf against much easier rivals, and was still a 10-1 upset. She has mostly been a sprinter but showed promise in finishing second in the La Troienne at more than 172-1; as the usual saying goes, if you did not back her then, it is probably not good to back her now when odds will be much lower and she will be asked to do so much more.
Analysis-Speed from the outside changes completely over the grass
Fair Odds-10/1
Overall
Horses from the outside will most likely dominate much of the proceedings in the Grade I Just A Game at BEL on a huge Saturday afternoon card of racing and Attraction is probably the biggest draw, and the most likely favourite, off a stellar season and as the defending champion. Her backclass, coupled with her affinity for this course and the fact that she will get an ideal outside trip, make her a huge choice over Broomsticks Copy, the F&M Turf champion looking to rebound after an tough effort at SA, and Sure Shot Lady, who won over this course last time and seems to be heading in an upward direction with her form cycle.
Prediction
Win-Attraction (Even)
Place-Broomsticks Copy (3/1)
Show-Sure Shot Lady (4/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
