Bowling Green – Grade II (P1)
SAR Race #6 1 3/8m InTurf Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.
1 Aerialist Mb Stables Ferrer J C 123 —
Both of this horse’s recent clunkers came when drawn way out wide in big fields and as we all know that can either be a positive or a negative, usually with a big swing of form one way or the other. In both those cases the six-year-old didn’t run its best race but today he gets back into the same gate that saw him third in the BC Turf and I wonder whether that will be the difference in a tough field.
2 Anemoi Mo Mentum Farm Jaramillo E 123 —
He hasn’t got the black-type form that some have here but is displaying the same sort of work times and was a fair third in the San Juan Capistrano last time from a horrible gate so maybe one of those five-year-olds that is finding his best later in life. He has won over 12 furlongs, so the trip won’t bother him and apart from a dud effort on an off track he has been pretty consistent.
3 Cascade King Nakamura Stables Lezcano J 123 —
He has been knocking on the door for a while now after a good three-year-old campaign, but he struggled in the early part of this year as four-year-olds can do as their development curve catches up. I liked his effort last time in the MTH Stakes when beaten just a neck which may signal that he has caught up on his development and I four-year-old put him in with a big win chance if the track stays dry.
4 Proud Bo TwinTowersRacing Cedillo A 123 —
Another four-year-old that has got better as its development curve has caught up, he was a big winner in the BEL Turf Gold Cup last time and that is a significant piece of form for a race like this. Certainly, suited by the trip he is another clear winning chance from a good draw.
5 Ptyrannical Arindel Centeno D E 123 —
A dual grade one winner this one has looked on occasions like he will never be beaten again but the turf division is a tough division to rule and whilst he is rarely beaten far the draw handicap has caught him out on occasions. He was only beaten a head in last year’s BC Mile when third but proved in the Pegasus and the Elkhorn that he is more than a miler. His last two efforts have been a shade below his best but that could be put down to the draw and he is better off on that score today. One of the best workers and one of the top rated in the field.
6 French Style Royalty Stables Dettori L 123 —
Last in this race last year that was an uncharacteristically bad run sandwiched between consistent form, so I don’t expect a repeat today. He seems to be racing much better on this new engine and I would hope he can get near the front early on for his best effort.
7 One Eyed Man Sheffler Stables Alvarado F T 123 —
A four-year-old which has been sneaking confidently up his improvement curve since being bought at auction early in the year. He won a little stakes race over this trip by 7 lengths in his first run for the new yard and then ran a cracker when beaten under a length in the Fort Macey. It looked like the mile was too short last time in the Poker Stakes when he flew home for third and I expect a big effort back over further today.
8 High Fives High Voltage Davis D 123 —
A consistent sort but he has a poor win record with only three wins from thirty efforts. I would expect him to be thereabouts, but this is a tough field, and I am not sure he has the finish to beat some of them, having said that this is HRP so he could fire out to a five-length lead in 45 seconds and hold on to win!
9 Afterburner Arindel Hernandez R M 123 —
He won this race last year but has struggled a little this year and may just see his best days in the rear-view mirror. He is still capable though and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him sneak a place if things go his way.
10 Lantern Yard Avenue Z Husbands P 123 —
His works aren’t far off the best of these, but this is a really competitive race, and he would’ve needed a better draw to be a win consideration. He has a habit of getting too far back so some drastic pace or an instruction change may see a big effort but on bare form I am struggling to see him winning.
11 The Natural Mb Stables Franco M 123 —
Ran up three in a row and then ran a decent fourth in the BEL Turf Gold Cup with his former owner and was then bought by Mb Stables for $200.000. Drawn eleven it will be a tough ask to see him as a contender, but I have a feeling if he gets the front using the wide gate speed push, he may just be tough to pull back. Merely being in this stable gives him a winning chance.
12 Whispered Talent Axeman Geroux F 123 —
I think he is much better than his form suggests but has been harshly handicapped with the car park draw and will have to find something special to overcome it against a tough field. If The Natural goes forward, he may go back and if there is some pressure up front and a fast pace, he could have a squeak at coming late and wide.
SUMMARY
The best form horses in this race are all drawn well making it very hard to see a wider horse getting into things, but this race engine can be a law unto itself and sometimes the wide draws can get magical runs. All the horses here are work clones as per usual so you have to go with form and improvement curves to find the winner, so I am going for Ptyranical to come back to his best beating Cascade King and Aerialist.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
