June 23, 2016
In a horse racing world where purses get bigger, runners get faster and things get more and more heated, it is always nice to look back at history for the stories that define a sport and there are too many tales to tell when it comes to the now Gold Cup at SA. Named the Hollywood Gold Cup for almost all of its time since the first running in 1938, the first winner was arguably the greatest of all-time and victory by Seabiscuit led to a bevy of amazing early winners like Challedon, Shannon, and the Hall Of Fame trio of Noor, Citation and Two Lea.
Swaps, Round Table and Gallant Man would all prove victorious in the 1950’s for jockey Bill Shoemaker but the 1960’s would bring about a whole new age of racing with the three wins from Native Diver proving to be a benchmark only one other horse would ever match. No less than five Hall Of Famers won the Gold Cup in the 1970’s (Ack Ack, Kennedy Road, Ancient Title, Exceller and Affirmed) but it was really not until Cigar in 1995 that a true superstar would grace the winner’s circle at Hollywood Park again. In recent years, the emergence of more lucrative events pushed the Gold Cup to almost an afterthought in the Handicap division and you have to go back to Skip Away in 1997 to find a Champion Older Male who won this race, although Lava Man put it back on the map with three wins in a row in 2005, 2006 and 2007.
HRP has seen some of the best horses in its history take victory at both HOL and SA and while 2004 Horse Of The Year Papa Bear could only finish fourth in the inaugural edition to Wasting Away, Icicle came back with two straight wins in the following years with Dark Crown and Barbarino scoring impressive victories after that. Risen Ruler pulled off a Grade I treble in 2012, Jesse James took the last of his four Grade I wins in 2013 and owner Mb Stables added to their three lifetime wins in the event with further scores with Visa Vice and No Trippin, who is not back to defend after his win at the favourite last year. In his stead, his owner comes back with two entrants in search of a fourth straight win but they will have to face five rivals who all have Grade I wins under their belt, leading to one of the most competitive races of the year and one where anyone can come on for the win.
1-Greek Poet (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)
Greek Poet is probably one of the best claims over the past year, since he was taken for only $50.000 and has won more than $1500.000 with scores in the Queen’s Plate, Prince of Wales and Grade I SA Handicap. However, he did press the pace and back up badly last time out in the PIM Special and at this classic distance, will need to be much more patient if he hopes to hit the board; something returning jockey J R Velazquez will have to do if he hopes to ensure at least the right set-up down the lane.
Analysis-Sitting off the early pace will be his best chance of success
Fair Odds-8/1
2-Mister Major (Eight-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
After a seven-year-old won the Gold Cup two years ago and an eight-year-old won last year, there is nothing the veterans of HRP cannot seem to accomplish and multiple Grade I winner Mister Major will look to duplicate those feats after a failed turf attempt back in March for owner Sanny Village. Coming back off the layoff with a single workout does not look good for his cause and this distance might be a little too far for his liking, making him one of the longshots in a standout field of older runners.
Analysis-Distance limitations abound for this veteran
Fair Odds-20/1
3-Chrystal Pip (Four-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Chrystal Pip can count himself amongst a select group of three-year-olds, including Little Slick and Fusion, as a Grade I winning three-year-old on both dirt and turf and off his huge $600.000 purchase and a score in the Man o War to back it up, has to be considered one of the top contenders at this ten-furlong distance for owners who know how to win this event. Distance and surface should pose no problem and his closing kick is well documented so look for the ideal stalking trip and another huge race that could put him at the top of the list for some big races over the Summer on both the West and East coasts.
Analysis-Huge at BEL and the return to dirt is a boon
Fair Odds-3/1
4-Tundra Kenny (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Australia Wide)
Tundra Kenny looked like the real deal after winning both the Sword Dancer and the BC Turf last year but he is winless in four starts this campaign and gets a key rider change that could hurt his chances, making him more of a pretender than he really should be in this spot. Speed ratings have dropped off and his last two efforts have been completely different in both racing styles and finishes so the hope is that his new pilot will settle him down and he can run down some of the speed from off the pace for at least a forward finish that will help him in the future.
Analysis-Not a win candidate but hoping for a rebound effort
Fair Odds-12/1
5-Outward Bound (Six-year-old chestnut horse / Owner-Eastern Equine)
Only one of the seven horses entered in the Gold Cup comes back from last year and while Outward Bound was not here in 2015, he is no stranger to SA and could be around for a minor award as he gears up for a defense of his Pacific Classic win. A single runner-up finish from four 2016 starts, he moved too quickly in the Californian and was swallowed up by the winner of that race and unless he gets a soft pace up front, his gate speed will hinder him and he might be fading badly in the last few furlongs.
Analysis-Has not been the same horse since his DMR win
Fair Odds-10/1
6-Hyper Silver (Seven-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
Hyper Silver owns three wins at this 1 ¼ mile distance over the past 14 months but some tough efforts as a longshot in races like the BC Classic and SA Handicap will inflate his odds once again and he will have to overcome some trouble if he wants to add another top-class win to his credentials. Summer form was good to him last year but his two efforts over the SA main track have been less than stellar and he is another in this tough field with difficult form to overcome, adding to his odds in a field where the trip will make all the difference.
Analysis-Has done better than most at this classic distance
Fair Odds-8/1
7-Spanish Showboat (Six-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
While his stablemate was over in NY winning a prestigious Grade I on turf, Spanish Showboat was here at SA making his first start on the main track since the Gold Cup last year and off a win in the Californian, is a logical contender for the top honours in this field with two wins in three starts and excellent efforts at this distance to fall back on. He sat perfectly from his outside draw last time and came on powerfully to score the win but a change in jockey might lead to a change in tactics and the fear is that he might not get the same middle pace, making his run a little more muted against a decidedly tougher field.
Analysis-Turf star looks to become a Grade I winner on both surfaces
Fair Odds-5/1
Overall
As usual in tough Grade I races like The Gold Cup at SA, recent winners will dominate the betting and Chrystal Pip will look to become the first four-year-old since Risen Ruler to reign supreme against his more seasoned rivals, and will try to do so coming off a huge win at BEL over their turf course. Spanish Showboat tried the dirt in the Californian and won big but is more of a turf runner and will be coming from off the early pace as usual against what should be his much better suited stablemate while Greek Poet gets the inside stall but has a huge upset in the SA Handicap to fall back on, with a return to the West Coast much more to his liking.
Prediction
Win-Chrystal Pip (3/1)
Place-Spanish Showboat (5/1)
Show-Greek Poet (8/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
