BC Juvenile Fillies Turf – Grade I
SA Race #13 1m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Fillies Two Years Old.
Diablo Diablo and Ken Allen are the only two trainers to have won this race twice and one of those trainers gets a chance to make it three in the 2023 running of this contest. This race is always competitive and whilst it doesn’t always throw up the best turf filly going forward the winners are always solid and, in most cases, go on to be stakes winners and future BC Fillies And Mares runners. It will be interesting to see how the speed works today as many of these horses have taken advantage of the on-speed nature of this race engine. We could end up with six or seven fighting for the front and a very fast opening quarter which may open it up a bit for the closers. It is likely a wide gate will end up in front so the important part for the rest will be to find a position and that is always tough in a 14-horse field.
Here is how they line up for the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf:
1 Jacqui
Trained by Alydar Stables, bred by Alydar Stables
By Racket Runner out of Peppermint Valentine
Form: 11
Made all to win the Surfer Girl and book her place here and I feel she may be the one at maybe better odds to take a real close look at. The thing that impressed me in her two efforts to date has been how positive she has been from wide draws and how she has refused to give in at the end of her races. The works are certainly saying she is a major player and with the inside draw today and her positive running style it should be a big advantage. Of course, the first thing that needs to happen is for her to get out of the gate and then lead or stalk and that much may be down to a bit of race engine luck but if she gets it then she could stay unbeaten.
2 Beat Down
Trained by TwinTowersRacing
By Starship Sweeper out of Crimson Court, bred by TwinTowersRacing
Form: 10030
She hasn’t got the most impressive form figures but has been in some top races in her last three and has had horror draws in two of them. On her effort in the Natalma when a strong third beaten a couple of lengths she has every right to get into this race, but she does have to turn the tables on Wonderful World which may be a tough ask. She gets the perfect draw today so gets her chance and this trainer has been known to upset the big players more than once.
3 Let Me Explain
Trained by Mb Stables, bred by Mb Stables
By People Pleaser out of Because
Form: 341111
Well if Wonderful World is going to get beat it could be by this filly from a trainer that knows how to win BC races. Whilst her best work is not as good as Wonderful Worlds it is still well below the 1.36 mark and if anything, she looks like this trip will suit her better than the likely favorite. She was super impressive in winning the Jessamine coming from off the speed for a comprehensive win and that came after two stakes wins so she is certainly in the groove. The draw monster has been kind to her in the past and is once again so the Gods have already smiled on her and it wouldn’t be surprising if the race engine did the same.
4 Baby Come Back
Trained by Nakamura Stables, bred by Nakamura Stables
By Hollywood Latte out of Babes Authority
Form: 21213
A real consistent sort she was really tough in the Miss Grillo from a nasty draw and gets a good gate today to show her best. There will be plenty of fillies that want to get on speed in this race so she may do better to back out the speed duel and take a sit which is probably more likely with an inside draw. Sometimes these fillies that just give their best every time can be the safer bet in these races where there is almost certainly going to be some that do not run their best. A top four wouldn’t surprise.
5 Reaper Lightning
Trained by Arkansas Elite, bred by Arkansas Elite
By Cherokee Reaper out of Bellisima
Form: 11223
A real consistent sort she ran well to share third in the Jessamine from a rotten draw and is certainly not a forlorn hope here. I guess the question mark here will be the trip but I think if she can get a more economical run in transit than she did in the Jessamine she should see it out OK and the draw monster has been kinder to her this time.
6 Wonderful World
Trained by Smokey Stover, bred by Smokey Stover
By Sinissippi Star out of Ocarina Of Time
Form: 011
When a two-year-old is working 1.35 and 1 in August for the mile you have to sit up and take notice, put in context that is as good as some of the older horses that could compete in the BC Mile. So, take notice because this filly looks like a freak of nature and after proving herself in the grade one Natalma looks one of the standout bets in the Breeders Cup weekend. I guess the biggest question mark for her will be the early speed and the trip as she is an on-speed type and there is a lot of early speed in this race. I think if she settles just behind the speed, she may be too good for these but the danger with these mid pack draws is that they need an early decision to be made and if that ends up being the wrong one, she may find trouble.
7 Purp Plan
Trained by Gdp Inc, bred by Gdp Inc
By Quarter Plan out of Purple Laffz
Form: 441013
This filly had been doing pretty well in her run up to the Surfer Girl but she went to another level that day and really caught the eye. Drawn the car park she went way, way back as they can with that draw but made up seven lengths in 2 furlongs to finish third and went into plenty of black books with that effort. I have a feeling that the pace will be hot here so she may once again go back and fly home. That may be a gamble worth taking but this race engine is very hard on closers.
8 Light Cochise
Trained by Mb Stables, bred by El Primero Rodeo
By Cochise out of Forbidden Girl
Form: 01412
Went to a claimer after her maiden win and could only manage fourth but she looked a different filly when swapped to turf to chase Wonderful World home in the Natalma. Beaten just a length after working almost a second slower there is clearly ability there, but she isn’t the easiest to assess. The advantage she has is a loose stalk or mid pack position seems natural to her and with so much speed in the race she may be able to pick them off late.
9 Schrodinger Con
Trained by Big Guns Stables, bred by Big Guns Stables
By Con Artist out of Gobekli Fire
Form: 0241
Went into the Miss Grillo as a maiden but that didn’t bother her as she overcame a wide draw to get home by a nose. That win was certainly a surprise but it came off two runs on an off track, so her form lines were a bit muddled, and it is clear she is not out of place in this field. Her works have been improving rapidly as her form has and she did a lot of work in the Miss Grillo making that win far better than it looked on paper. Sadly, she is done no favors by the draw monster again today but has done it before so the trainer will know what to do this time.
10 Superface Party
Trained by Mb Stables, bred by Martyparty
By Face Your Fears out of Supercede
Form: 2211
We are all used to Mb having three runners in BC races, he is rather like Spinetingling is at the free track dominating the races in the betting and often finding a high win rate thanks to their multiple starters. So, any horse from these stable needs looking at carefully and whilst this is the worst drawn of the group, she has some quality, and the trainer may use her early speed to cancel out some of the rivals. She may be wide enough to get some wide gate speed push so could cross them and get the front which is what she did from a similar draw in The Flower last time. She doesn’t look the best of the stable on paper, but she could play an important part in this race.
11 Action Girl
Trained by Diablo Diablo, bred by Diablo Diablo
By Action Man out of High Cholestral
Form: 01112
An on-speed type she set the race up for Let Me Explain in the Jessamine setting a very strong pace before tiring in the final furlong. It would have taken a wonder horse to last home that day so it was a mammoth effort to hold onto second and one does feel that if she can run a more even pace, she could be the dark filly here. Her works are improving, and her form is too and there is plenty to like about her chances, but this wide draw tends to give them just two choices, forward or back and it will be tough for her to make the lead against the speed in this race. If things go her way, then the trainer could be the first to get three wins in this race, good luck to them.
12 Miss Hijinks
Trained by Maxmillion Farm, bred by Bayou Star Farm
By El Gran Fury out of Little Miss Z
Form: 011
Went really well to win the KD Juvenile Fillies last time over a mile and looked improved over the longer trip. Both her wins have come from perfect draws, so today’s wide gate is new territory for her but if anyone knows how to win a turf route it is the turf king themself. At only 15.1hh you would have to say she may not have shown her best yet but there are a lot of smaller two-year-olds doing the job this year so maybe that isn’t something we need to focus on. A win chance but she will need the race engine to find her a path to do so.
13 National Dreamer
Trained by First Flight Stable, bred by La Canada Racehorses
By Edge of Chai out of A New Dream
Form: 0102
Bought at auction for $44 and then turned in a performance to get herself on the biggest stage in the Miss Grillo. This will be a great story for the trainer who clearly saw the turf potential in her taking her from a seventh in the ELP Debutante on the dirt into that great performance on the grass. She wasn’t drawn that well in the Miss Grillo and settled back but flew home suggesting that this trip is perfect for her. Her works are sharp, and she will be finishing strongly and that may be the advantage she needs as she gets a wide draw which will probably give her that option. She will need the speed to cut its throat to have a chance but that is possible here and I will be looking for her late and wide.
14 Anoushka Titan
Trained by Big Guns Stable, bred by Big Guns Stable
By Anoush Command out of Falling Titan
Form: 2012
Gets the dreaded car park draw so looks a tough chance to win this. She did well from mid pack in the Surfer Girl so as long as the race engine doesn’t choose her to be the wide speed and she can settle back I think she may be a chance late. The intriguing thing here will be that the other stable runner is inside her and will appreciate a stalk and with a sharp five furlong work she may be used to try and spread the pack early and let her stable mate slot in. Tactics may not be as easy as they used to be but the wide gate and the race engine may hold the ace card for the stable.
SUMMARY
Tactically this is a very interesting race. There looks to be a lot of early speed, but that fact is skewed by the race engine bias, and we know 14 runners can’t be in the first two. It is likely that the early leader will have to work hard to be there and will weaken so that may open it up for the closers. However, if my first three choices get a decent trip in transit then I cannot see anything beating them.
My first choice has to be Wonderful World, I just can’t get away from those works but 14 runners and the rigors of a BC race won’t make it easy. Let Me Explain is the obvious danger and has a better draw so may be the surer bet but they are my first two. Beyond them anything could win depending on how the race shapes up, but I am going with Jacqui who looks a really progressive sort.
Categories: BC 2021-2023
